Monday, June 01, 2020Primary Election Eve 2020: Where Will The Excitement Be Tomorrow Night? Plus: Lilly Barrack: The New Lady Of La Politica According to consultants, Alligators, wall-leaners, hangers-on and political wanna-bes, it appears the top-tier federal races have front-runners that could claim their prizes early in the night. That includes the Dem presidential primary which four years ago featured Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders vying for New Mexico's national convention delegates. This year Joe Biden is a foregone conclusion as is President Trump. There even appears to be a favored frontrunner for the southern GOP congressional nomination so bitterly fought over by Claire Chase and Yvette Herrell with Chris Mathys in the sidecar. Chase has run a spirited campaign but started far back. Those years-ago Facebook posts in which she called Trump an "asshole" had her furiously digging to get out of the hole. That meant she never attacked Herrell on ethics charges surrounding her businesses that the Dems effectively used two years ago. Nor did she have time to spare to paint Herrell as a sure loser against Dem Rep. Xochitl Torres Small who narrowly defeated her in 2018.
Also, a Dem PAC coming with $200,000 in TV to help Herrell--who they believe to be the easier candidate for XTS to defeat--has given her a final hours boost. (The trio debated on KOAT-TV Sunday.)
In the northern Dem congressional race nothing much has changed since we broke the news of that poll sponsored by Emily's List that had Teresa Leger Fernandez sporting a 33 to 24 lead over Valerie Plame and with the other five candidates failing to score double digit support. Plame could move up but probably not into the winner's circle because of the reluctance of Hispanic and Native Americans to flock to her candidacy.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren endorsed TLF Sunday, further fragmenting the Santa Fe Anglo liberal vote Plame is trying to consolidate. And here's late video from Laura Montoya who has not been seen very often during the campaign.
In the GOP US Senate race Gavin Clarkson actually raised more money than former TV weatherman Mark Ronchetti--over $1 million for Clarkson to $800K for Ronchetti--but Clarkson spent most of it over the past year and half. Ronchetti raised and spent his money since January and as a result dominates the airwaves. Elisa Martinez, hailed as possibly the strongest R to take on Dem Rep. Ben Ray Lujan, never really got started, leaving Ronchetti to run up the field mostly untouched. In ABQ three R's are dueling for the GOP congressional nomination. None of them are well-known. And Dem Rep. Deb Haaland doesn't have to worry about the national GOP targeting the deep blue district in the general election. So exactly where will the excitement come from Primary Election Night 2020? Probably from Democratic state Senate primaries where progressives are trying to take out conservatives. However even there it appears the field has shrunk from as many as six races in play for the progressives to perhaps two or three. The top two are Siah Correa Hemphill's challenge of appointed Sen. Gabe Ramos in the Silver City area and the progressive challenge of Grants area Senator Clemente Sanchez by retired educator Pam Cordova. The handicappers say those two are coin flips. As far as a dramatic reshaping of the Senate, that does not appear to be in the cards. Conservative Dems George Munoz, Mary Kay Papen and John Arthur Smith are expected to get past their challengers. One race that some of the Alligators are calling their "upset special" is the challenge to Senator Richard Martinez of Española by Rio Arriba County Commissioner Leo Jaramillo. Martinez's infamous DWI bust caught on video last year put him on the defensive. His team says he has recovered and will win. But that video is powerful and could tip the balance against Martinez. ELECTION NIGHT COVERAGE There are a number of state House Dem and GOP primaries that will also keep the political hearts beating a tick faster than usual tomorrow night. We'll cover those and all of the above races when we take to the airwaves of ABQ's KANW 89.1 FM and KANW.COM via Zoom tomorrow night at 6:45. My guest experts will include Democratic consultant Sisto Abeyta and GOP consultant Bob Cornelius. It's a big field to keep an eye on on so we'll use our binoculars to spot all the fun--and excitement. LILLY BARRACK  Well, it was one of those moments, wasn't it? While MLG's jewelry adventure doesn't harbor the massive negative consequences of Gov. Martinez's notorious pizza party, it was a pandemic moment to be long-remembered and a likely future political issue for MLG to face. That's because this is a man on the street story. Everyone, not just those who follow politics, relate to a politician receiving special treatment that would never be offered to the regular Jill or Joe. The Governor called the original report from KRQE-TV "wildly inaccurate" but looked autocratic when unable (or unwilling) to say why. Whether the letter of the public health order was violated when MLG ordered jewelry over the phone from a Lilly Barrack employee during the retail lockdown and had a friend retrieve it is immaterial. The action itself was the unforced error and why there was no outpouring of support on her behalf but mostly scorn. This isn't "jewelry gate" as the state GOP is trying to label it but the questions of preferential treatment and hypocrisy do come to the fore. Those are character issues that are particularly effective in campaigns. MLG doesn't face one until her 2022 re-elect. However, if and when the GOP gets their MLG counterpart you can bet your Rolex or favorite gem that Lilly Barrack will get more free advertising. And as for ABQ's Lilly, more about her here. THE BOTTOM LINES Last week we called Rick Little of Las Cruces a state rep. He is a former state rep. And Jodylynn Oritz was disqualified from the ballot for not having enough valid petition signatures and is no longer a Dem state senate candidate in District 9 in Sandoval County as we had her listed. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.   (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2020 |
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