Add to the list yet another way the virus pandemic has upended the June 2 primary election. There will be no polling of the big primary races by the ABQ Journal which has conducted the closely watched surveys for nearly 35 years.

Pollster Brian Sanderoff confirms that the paper will not be in the field this primary but did not give a reason. It's assumed that finances are a cause as the shutdown has negatively impacted media revenues And polling an election in which every registered major party voter has been mailed an absentee ballot application presents exceptional challenges.

The major races this year are the battles for the GOP southern congressional and US Senate nominations and the race for the Dem nod in the northern congressional district. Campaigns are conducting polling but it's not the same without the unbiased, scientific Journal survey which the political community relies on to shed light on the thinking of the electorate.

Still, the show must go on. With no polling to guide them, we asked political veterans to game the top races and key state senate primaries.

Former ABQ city councilor, state legislator, campaign consultant and now practicing attorney Greg Payne says he gives the edge to Teresa Leger Fernandez in the seven way race for the Dem northern nomination "She's run the best campaign but I see the race narrowing some in the final days. Look for her to take it but not by as much as some might think."

In the southern congressional battle, Payne sees Yvette Herrell capturing  the GOP nod as she did in '18. "This is a repeat of two years ago when Monty Newman and Herrell had a nasty primary. Herrell lost the November election, in part, because of Newman's challenge. This time Claire Chase is playing the Newman role and it's nastier than ever. Herrell should survive the primary but the general election is another question."

The GOP US Senate campaign has been pretty much a nonstarter and Payne sees former TV weatherman Mark Ronchetti scoring a primary win over Gavin Clarkson and Elisa Martinez. However, Ronchetti Has been busted by both of his rivals for public statements he made separating himself from Trump. That could impact the race in the light innings. Rep. Ben Ray Lujan is unchallenged for the Dem nod.

STATE SENATE ACTION

Conservative senators who often caucus with the chamber's Republicans to form a conservative coalition on key budget and social issues are under fire by progressives this primary and have fielded challengers against the incumbents. Let's go back out to the track where the Senior Alligators are placing their bets and getting ready for the action.

Senator John Arthur Smith--Neomi Martinez-Parra: This could be another of those "closer than people think" races, but our Gators see Smith prevailing. However, as one of them puts it, "Four years ago John Arthur won by only ten points against a poorly organized primary opponent. This time there is a better candidate who should hold him to single digits.”

Insider tip: Smith's wife is an educator, giving him insight into an issue that liberals are using against him.

Sen. Richard Martinez--Leo Jaramillo: The video of Sen. Martinez's now infamous DWI arrest was devastating but was it enough to take out the longtime Rio Arriba political fixture? This one looks like a toss-up. Senator Gator analysis: "Richard has very loyal supporters. The problem is people who like him may believe that his time has passed. He will lose Los Alamos County but the DWI may be watered down elsewhere. A bigger turnout could result due to all voters being mailed absentee ballot applications. Some of them won't be as familiar with his travails but recognize the name. Rio Arriba County Commissioner Leo Jaramillo is the opponent but this is a referendum on Richard and it's a toss-up."

Insider tips: Martinez was a longtime Rio Arriba magistrate before becoming a Senator. Jaramillo also has a DWI record.

Sen. Clemente Sanchez--Pam Cordova--This is a 50-50 race that is the one mostly likely to go to a recount, says a La Politica insider: "Sanchez is used to very close races. Cordova is keeping him hopping. However, she is from Valencia County and there are slightly more votes in the district in Cibola County where Clemente lives. This one is a coin flip.

Insider tip: Sanchez is married to a Native American, an important voting bloc.

Sen. Gabe Ramos--Siah Correa Hemphill: The Senior Alligators say this is the seat most likely to flip to the challenger. The Governor grudgingly appointed Ramos to fill the vacant seat. County commissions in the district gave her only one choice. Sr. Gator analysis: "Joe, Hemphill is a compelling candidate. She's also an educator and Dems like to vote for educators. Look at the Legislature. Because Ramos was appointed, this is more like an open seat than an incumbent's race. Ramos is getting PAC help but the race appears to be leaning her way."

Insider tip: This SW NM senate district was carried by Bernie Sanders over Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Dem Prez primary.

Sen. Mary Kay Papen vs. Carrie Hamblen: The progressives have a quality challenger but 88 year old Mary Kay may hang on. The Gator take: "It's perhaps a case of too little too late. A third candidate recently got out of the race. That helps Hamblen but that third name is still on the ballot and could make the difference as the anti-Papen vote still splits, just not as much.

Insider tips: Papen's late husband Frank Papen, a wealthy banker, held this senate seat back in the 80's. Hamblen is a 20 year veteran of public radio and is a familiar voice in the Las Cruces area district.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2020