TLF

Valerie Plame

Is Teresa Leger Fernandez closing the deal in the seven way race for the northern Dem congressional nomination? A poll sponsored by Emily's List points in that direction, but because turnout in this pandemic year is cloudy the other top tier candidate, Valerie Plame, can't be written off.

Clarity Campaign Labs polled the district May 20-21 and contacted 661 "likely Democratic voters" with robocalls calls to land lines and in-person calls to cellphones . The poll has TLF opening up a 9 point lead--33-24--over Plame. TLF and Plame have been the major money raisers and TV spenders in the race.

The other candidates trailed badly. Santa Fe County District Attorney Marco Serna managed only 9 percent; State Rep. Joseph Sanchez garnered 7; John Blair polled at 4; Sandoval County Treasurer Laura Montoya received 3 percent and attorney Kyle Tisdale came in at 2. That left 18 percent undecided.

TLF, a native of Las Vegas, NM, showed strength across the board, leading in every major demographic released by the polling firm. With women she beat Plame 35 to 24. With men she won 34 to 29. Her strongest showing was with Native Americans where she scored 40 percent to Plame's 14. TLF has served as counsel to several Native American Tribes.

Hispanics favored TLF 32 to 16.

Plame's best showing was with Anglo voters. TLF polled at 38 percent with them and Plame was close behind at 31 percent.

The problem for Plame, 56, is the district is majority-minority. Hispanics make up 40 percent of  the residents and Native Americans 18 percent and she is not doing well with them. Also, Leger Fernandez, a White House Fellow under President Clinton, has made no major campaign mistakes since blowing her competition out if the water at the Dem Party March preprimary convention. And she has not been subjected to much negative campaigning as the candidates in the crowded field concentrated on their own backyard as TLF steadily gained traction.

The chance for an upset next Tuesday is in the turnout. Every voter received an absentee ballot application due to a NM Supreme Court order so the electorate could be reshaped compared to past primaries. Could is the key word. More likely is that the turnout hews to  more or less traditional  lines and the polling is not far off. The margin of error in the survey is put at 3.76 percent.

ABSENTEE PAINS

This absentee heavy election is not going to be as easy as 1,2,3. There will be problems because of the volume of ballots sent out by elections officials. And here they come, says Northern US Rep. Ben Ray Lujan:

After hearing reports that Santa Fe County residents have faced significant problems in the absentee voting process. . . Ben Ray Luján is asking Secretary of State, Maggie Toulouse Oliver, to extend the deadline for absentee ballots to be counted. . . Luján. . . is requesting that all statewide ballots be counted if they are postmarked by June 2nd, rather than only if they are received by June 2nd.

“. . . There have been concerning reports of delays in receiving and processing absentee ballots, and some ballots that are missing altogether. . . It’s clear that action must be taken to ensure that all voices are safely heard by extending the deadline for counting ballots. Overall, our vote by mail system is working and is providing a critical option for voters to submit ballots by mail or in person. . .

Well, we won't know until after the election if Lujan is right that "the mail system is working." Fears have followed this election that many of the addresses on file with the Secretary of State will prove erroneous. And then there's the issue of counting all those absentees. Will that come off without a hitch in all 33 counties?

RENEWED RIVALRY?

Will they clash again?

An old rival of ABQ Mayor Tim Keller's has his nose under his tent. State Auditor Brian Colón, who ran for mayor against Keller in 2017, is now State Auditor and he doesn't like what he is seeing at Keller's troubled APD:

Colón says his office has been conducting an ongoing probe into overtime practices at the Albuquerque Police Department and that his report could be complete in a month or so. . . APD's overtime king, officer Simon Drobik, has racked up $82,000 in pay for the first four months of this year. Drobik's base salary is $31.50 an hour, and by our calculations, more than $50,000 of what he has made so far this year has come from overtime. Drobik is on track to make $247,000 this year.

Way too much overtime is a decades-long systemic problem at APD but the Drobik incident took it to new levels and is a political vulnerability for Keller who is seeking re-election next year. Meanwhile, friends of Colón say he is eyeing a run for attorney general in 2022. A lot of ambition with those two that could collide.

One other thing: If Colón's findings are disturbing does he send them over to BernCo District Attorney Raul Torrez for his consideration? The same Raul Torrez who is preparing his own run for the Democratic nomination for attorney general in 2022?

And so go the ever twisting plot lines of La Politica.