New Mexico appears to be warming to the idea of a mostly all mail primary election. The Secretary of State reports so far 91,298 voters have requested absentee ballots and they will be dropped in the mail starting today.

There are 985,000 major party voters eligible to vote in the June primary (Dems, R's and Libertarians) so those 91 thousand requests amount to nearly 10 percent of all eligible voters.

Statewide voter registration stats are here.

Voters who have not requested absentee applications won't have to do so on their own. Last week the SOS started mailing out applications to all eligible voters per the order of the NM Supreme Court. That's due to the coronavirus and the goal of having as many votes as possible cast by mail.

There will still be early-person voting at convenience centers starting in mid-May and Election day voting on June 2 but the number of polling places will be restricted and social distancing will be required. The first in-person BernCo absentee voting begins today at the Clerk’s Annex on 15th and Lomas NW from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m and continues through May 15.

As expected, those requesting absentees thus far lean Dem. In big BernCo County Clerk Linda Stover will today begin mailing 31,616 ballots to Dems and 8.935 to R's.

Turnout is somewhat unpredictable this year. The campaigns have been barely noticeable as the virus eats up the media time, plus there are only a handful of interesting races. R's can probably count on about 25 percent of their eligible voters to turn out or about 95,000. If the Dems get to 25 percent their turnout would be around 145,000.

The turnout drop will be significant for the Dems compared to 2016 when they had an exciting presidential primary between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. Not so this year as Joe Biden is the last man standing for the D Prez nod. And the  R's will simply ratify Trump.
With every voting household getting an absentee application the number of those who will request a ballot is the great unknown. For sure, the campaigns that are set up to track and contact voters going the absentee route will be best prepared for this most unusual of elections.

WHAT  THEY'RE WATCHING

It's a handful of contested Democratic state Senate races that are the highlight of this primary season. And big money is coming to play.

NM Strong PAC has been formed by oil giant Chevron and it's on a spending spree to boost conservative Dem senators facing progressive Democratic primary challengers. Chief among them is Deming Senator John Arthur Smith, chairman of the powerful Senate Finance Committee, who is getting a stiff challenge from educator and progressive Neomi Martinez Parra. If Smith were to be ousted from his seat the political ramifications for the state would be far-reaching.

Chevron has TV ads up that are being seen across the state, despite the fact that the senate primaries could be decided by as few as 6,000 votes. And the ads are emphasizing the votes of Smith that are more palatable to the left wing of the party, like teacher pay raises. They also prominently feature Smith pictured with Governor MLG as they work to cash in on her appeal with Dems. We have obtained a copy of that ad and it's  posted here. 

Basically the same ad is airing in support of Senator Clemente Sanchez of Grants who is also a part of what is known as the Senate Conservative Coalition. The use of MLG is notable because it is the conservative Dem senators who have joined with the R's to block the more liberal aspects of her agenda. Now they are embracing her to save their skins.

Eric Griego of the NM Working Families Party opposing the conservative senators says Chevron has so far put $350,000 into the PAC and is also putting out mailers that mimic the TV.

The ads are high quality and appear persuasive to the casual voter. Combined with the inability of the challengers to campaign in person or equal the Chevron spending, it puts them in a tough spot in the final weeks of Primary '16.

VIRUS AND THE SPECIAL

Now that Senate Majority Leader Peter Wirth has announced the Senate, unlike the House, will not conduct a virtual session and will appear in person at the Roundhouse for a June special session, those concerned that the virus is not being taken seriously enough come forth. One of them is reader John Rey:

What part of Stay Home does Wirth not understand? Is he exercising his huevos as leader? Well, if he is we need another leader. Because of my compromised immune system i am forced to stay home and only go out at my peril, but when I do leave the house I’m amazed at the number of people out and about like corona is a myth. Maybe Wirth should have the legislature’s meeting in Gallup, so he can see the virus’s affect first hand.

The stay at home order could well be expired by June so Wirth and his colleagues probably have that in mind in rejecting a virtual session. But with the status of the virus unpredictable, how the Senate will meet might be a moving target.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2020