The Santa Fe bean counters didn't surprise anyone when they predicted this week that  the double whammy of the coronavirus shutdown and the collapse in oil prices will blow a hole in the New Mexico budget the size of the Grand Canyon. New Mexicans know that. What they want and need to know is how the state climbs out of that hole and who and what programs suffer to accomplish the goal.

If you've been there you know that climbing out of the Grand Canyon can be exhilarating, a bit harrowing and a test of your stamina. And there are a number of ways to the top. Same for this budget hole.

The least challenging way out is in DC where a $500 billion budget-plugging bill for the states remains stalled. Really, until this mammoth bailout plan is resolved New Mexico is stuck. Approval could mean something along the lines of $2 billion, an amount that when combined with state reserves could still mean budget cuts but much less painful.

The other trail out is for Congress to simply allow the money already sent to the states to deal with corona ($1.250 billion to NM and $150 million to ABQ) to be redirected for budget purposes. That money is currently restricted to coronavirus issues. Officials are lobbying furiously to have the change made.

If either of those lifelines fails to come then the state is going to have a serious debate about tapping the $18 billion Land Grant Permeant Fund, a debate which thanks to the Governor is already underway.

For now it appears there is no deal between MLG and Senator John Arthur Smith, chairman of the powerful Senate Finance Committee. He says:

“I still don’t think it’s responsible. I fully understand the desire to try and rob Peter to pay Paul, but I think there are other things that can be done between now and then." . . . His main concern was that dipping into the fund for one fiscal year could open the door to continuing to draw from it again and again. 

Okay, but remember Smith did vote in committee several years ago to tap the Permanent Fund. The money would have been devoted to K thru12 education. We don't think this tap dance between Smith and MLG is over, not if these immense shortfalls predicted (around $2 billion for the budget year that starts July 1) come to fruition.

FOOD TAX?

One of the more dreaded taxes---the one on food--was long ago repealed but it may make a comeback during this emergency. There are rumblings of reinstating the tax which is a big revenue generator. But how do you do it when so many will be jobless or under employed?  Do you argue that most of them will get food stamps so the food tax will not impact them and give a tax deduction to low income families who do pay the tax?

How would New Mexico feel about that? There are booby traps being set all over the place for this Governor and her Democratic Party.

CAMPAIGN ACTION

Chase and Herrell

Yvette Herrell and Claire Chase are fighting about Claire's personal life as the campaign for the southern GOP congressional nomination heads into the lowlands.

Did Yvette accuse Claire of cheating on her first husband? Did the twice-divorced Yvette help put out a piece about it? She denies it. Claire says she should get out of the race for her deed. Yvette says she won't. And so it goes. This when the state is mired in the worst emergency in memory? Sometimes modern politics is just disconnected.

GOP US Senate candidate Mark Ronchetti seems to be disconnecting from President Turmp a bit, even after he has defended himself against charges form his opponents that he is a Never Trumper.

In his first TV spot for the June 2 primary, Ronchetti says the Senate needs an outsider who "will stand with the president to strengthen and rebuild our economy."

That's not enough for the pro-Trumper. Ronchetti’s campaign says:

Mark has made it abundantly clear that he stands with President Trump and what he’s doing for New Mexico. In the ad, Mark states that he stands with the president and lays out his positive vision for helping small businesses, cracking down on China, and securing our borders.

Ronchetti's foes are under financed, Elisa Martinez woefully so. She doesn't have money for TV. Gavin Clarkson has enough for a small buy and is going up this week. Ronchetti had over $500,000 in cash on hand at the end of March.

The Dem nominee will be Rep. Ben Ray Lujan. The race is ranked "likely Democrat" by the Cook Poltical Report.

Reader and Dem activist Michael Folsom calls State Treasurer Tim Eichenberg "a backstabber" for endorsing Bernadette Sanchez over incumbent Dem BernCo Treasurer Nancy Bearce in the June primary. "This guy makes me sick. I've given him my last vote," declares Folsom.

Sanchez is a former ABQ westwside state senator. She is also endorsed by former NM first lady Clara Apodaca and former Ambassador to Spain and old line Democrat Ed Romero. Eichenberg says Sanchez is "honest and hardworking.”

THANKS, JETBLUE

From the WSJ:

JetBlue Flight 65 flew from New York to Albuquerque, N.M., with only seven passengers on board on April 21. There was no good reason to operate the nonstop flight—except for who was booked on the return trip.

Six passengers total. But all of them were medical professionals going from New Mexico to New York to help with coronavirus response. Once JetBlue’s operations team learned who the passengers were, the airline decided it shouldn’t cancel the 200-passenger Airbus A321. Flight 66, the return to New York’s Kennedy Airport, was flagged as a high priority/care flight to air-traffic controllers.

The airline has announced that it is giving away 100,000 pairs of round-trip flights to health care workers across the country when it is finally time for them to take a vacation.

You can call that rising (or flying) to the occasion.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2020