Sen. Smith

It's arguably the most important primary election outside of that do or die battle for the Dem nomination for the northern congressional seat. We speak of the primary challenge to New Mexico's most influential legislator--Senator John Arthur Smith, chairman of the Senate Finance Committee who has served since 1989 and this week officially announced his candidacy for another four year term:

It is an honor to serve as State Senator, and as we navigate through this difficult economy, I believe my deep experience crafting equitable budgets that maximize every dollar will be more important than ever,” said Smith. “We must preserve our social safety net, lift displaced workers back into stability and preserve gains we have made in early education, K-12 funding, and addressing climate change. (Full announcement here).

That's a bit of a dovish tone from the conservative Smith who has been repeatedly bashed by liberals who decry what they see as his tight fisted approach to state finances and fault him in particular for holding back on funding early childhood education by tapping the state's $19 billion Land Grant Permanent Fund.

But Smith has been an important supporter of all day kindergarten. He also supported the $320 million "trust fund" for very early childhood education approved this past legislative session, but his foes called that "running for cover" because he faces primary opposition. They also faulted the fund for not being a permanent funding source and that could be raided for other purposes. That could happen, given current fiscal conditions.

Smith's emphasis in his announcement of more mainstream Democratic values (including climate change) is due to Neomi Martinez-Parra, a special education teacher who is challenging him in the June 2 primary and is backed by progressive groups who have long yearned to oust the 78 year old Deming real estate appraiser.

But Martinez-Parra's campaign has been derailed by the coronavirus, forcing her to conduct a virtual campaign over the phone and web. Smith is also choked off from voters but as a well-known incumbent he will not suffer as much as his challenger.

In finance reports filed Monday Martinez-Parra reported $12,000 in cash on hand. Smith reported $98,000 in cash.

Martinez-Parra

Martinez-Parra has so far held back in contrasting herself with Smith. She may be leaving that to the NM Working Families Party and other progressives who specialize in negative campaigns. The groups are targeting Smith and four other conservative Dems in the primary with the slogan "No Corporate Democrats."

But this SW district--Luna, Dona Ana, Sierra and Hidalgo counties--isn't exactly teeming with corporations. Concerns are more parochial and more moderate. For example, Hidalgo County voted twice for Obama and then went for Trump in 2016.

Martinez-Parra is a top drawer candidate who lives in Lordsburg (Hidalgo County) and is making her first run for office. But in politics timing is everything and the coronavirus combined with the crash in oil prices appears to have strengthened Smith. Voters may lean on him again as they seek a steady hand in a time of crisis.

The winner of the Dem primary will face Republican Crystal Diamond of Elephant Butte in November. She's a licensed insurance agent and a cow/calf operator.

ARTHUR NOSTRADAMUS

Smith's supporters are boasting that "Dr. No" was right again in predicting that the state budget was too reliant on the price of oil and foretold the disaster that is now unfolding. That's true. The record also shows Smith warning of a crash during the tenure of GOP Gov. Susana Martinez. That also turned out to be true.

As for Smith's response to the Martinez era downturn, it was criticized as unnecessarily austere with massive budget cuts to important agencies like CYFD and creating enormous vacancies in state government. Also, the failure to stimulate the economy--accompanied by those ongoing austerity measures--is  blamed, in part, for leading to horrid child abuse cases, economic stagnation, crime waves, drug epidemics and depopulation/stagnation.

If Smith wins again he will get more chances to make oil price predictions. He will also get a chance to get right what he got wrong in economic policy as he grapples with circumstances similar but potentially more severe than the last downturn.

As for the future of the energy markets, as sure as there are boom and busts there will be another boom someday. But as the song says, "who knows where or when". . .We'll leave at that.

LIQUOR INEQUALITY?

Reader Peter Ives has this:

Joe, All that the governor's closure of mom and pop liquor stores is doing is diverting that traffic to Walgreen's and other national chains with liquor licenses. When I went to Jubilation (in ABQ) last week they were restricting entrance and monitoring customers, thereby being good citizens. Now they're closed. So much for supporting small business in NM.

One survey has New Mexico ranked third in the nation in alcohol consumption during this crisis, behind only Texas and California. Seems folks are determined to find their jubilation no matter what.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2019