Monday, March 09, 20202020 Pre-Primary Conventions: Leger Blows The Doors Off; Plame Reels, Yvette Crushes Claire, Elisa Who? Tops GOP Senate Race, Complete Coverage And Analysis
Teresa Leger Fernandez blew the doors off Saturday's Democratic Party pre-primary convention as she garnered 42 percent of delegate support in the 7 way race for the northern congressional seat. The overwhelming win cemented her as the undisputed front-runner and delivered a near fatal blow to the candidacy of her chief rival, nationally known Valerie Plame whose tiny 5 percent showing sent her to the canvas. The landslide left only Sandoval County Treasurer Laura Montoya standing. She earned (by two votes) the required 20 percent delegate support and joined TLF in getting an official spot on the primary ballot. That Sandoval County played a much larger role than usual at the convention is a testament to Montoya's political savvy but also the population growth of Rio Rancho and the lack of it in other parts of the district. A harbinger of the future? Plame and the other disappointed also-rans, including Santa Fe County District Attorney Marco Serna, now face the humbling task of submitting more petition signatures to ensure they are on the June 2 ballot. The blow-out was not forecast but Leger-Fernandez, 60, has been showing signs of organizational strength as she nailed down endorsements from Emily's List and other national groups, including from the AOC PAC and the left-wing Working Families Party. In addition she comes from a political family in San Miguel County and has practiced law for several decades, immersing herself in regional issues. Leger Fernandez, a Yale law school grad, has moved to unabashedly embrace the dominant Dem left wing. Moderates split their votes among Laura Montoya, Serna and State Rep. Joseph Sanchez. Serna received 13 percent support and Sanchez 12 percent. Former congressional aide and progressive John Blair was also left eating dust, managing only 4 percent and the unknown but well-informed Taos progressive Kyle Tisdale got 2 percent. Plame has the cash to hang around and Montoya may get a boost in fund-raising and try to position herself as the alternative to TLF but this one now seems like TLF's to lose. Her opponents are going to have to go negative and fast. Plame's campaign dismissed the convention results, saying TLF was anointed by "insiders." But the pre-primary surfaced deep problems Plame has in attracting Hispanic and Native American support, groups that comprise a majority in the diverse district. Her lack of a record of significant involvement in the district and the charge that she "parachuted" into the race with a sense of entitlement all combined to wreak havoc on her maiden political outing. It will take more than national Internet money to get her back on her feet. The June 2 Dem primary is the be-all-end all for this congressional seat. Only once in its 38 year history has it elected a Republican. At the GOP pre-primary Saturday longtime Santa Fe politico Harry Montoya received 39% of the delegate votes and Native American Karen Bedoni earned 31% as both secured official primary ballot spots for the congressional seat. YVETTE CRUSHES CLAIRE
Herrell, reeling from her narrow 2018 defeat by Torres Small, found firm footing Saturday and won 66 percent of delegate support to earn the top spot on the primary ballot. Despite a six figure TV buy leading into the convention, Chase was damaged by Herrell, coming in with only 33 percent. Businessman Chris Mathys managed only the support of three delegates and will have to file additional petition signatures to make the ballot. The 36 year old Chase is expected to again tap into family oil money to stay in the game. But history says a landslide pre-primary defeat could be the beginning of the end. The caveat being the huge oil money still behind Chase.
The political neophyte was attacked before the convention for her anti-Trump Facebook postings of several years ago. Trump appears stronger than ever in the conservative south and overcoming those postings may be a job even too big for Chase's big budget. They certainly were Saturday.
Still, some R's fretted over the Chase setback, saying the newcomer is the party's best hope to take the seat back, pointing to the poor campaign Herrell ran two years ago. They see a repeat if the former state representative is again the choice. Herrell says she has seen the light and is running a more professional effort than '18 but national Dems immediately pounced in the wake of her victory, with the DCCC saying: Republicans. . . are setting themselves up to repeat history with a drawn out, damaging race to the right. While today's showing suggests an effort to coalesce around frontrunner Yvette Herrell, general election voters won't forget the serious ethics problems that sunk her campaign last cycle. The Herrell-Chase race is again ripping the southern R’s apart as the two major factions pick sides. That happened in '18 when Herrell defeated former Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman. Some observers believe that primary warfare contributed to Herrell's loss to Torres Small. For now, Herrell has been forgiven of her past sins by her party brethren and Chase has been denied their blessing. But the Holy War for the nomination goes on. ELISA WHO?
Three other senate hopefuls failed to get official primary spots. Mick Rich, Louie Sanchez and Gavin Clarkson could not reach the required minimum of 20 percent delegate support. Expectations for Martinez were lower than those for celebrity Ronchetti whose January entrance made a big media splash. She is a well-known anti-abortion activist in the GOP but otherwise flies blow the political radar--until now. The founder of the NM Alliance for Life surprised by pivoting to issues other than abortion, made a smooth appearance on national TV and then gave a barnstorming speech Saturday. That she is a Native American and Hispanic woman is seen as a plus for the party as it attempts to expand beyond its white male base. But Ronchetti has good name ID and his second place showing is respectable for a first-timer and make him a formidable foe. Former GOP Chairman Allen Weh touts Ronchetti as the candidate who can bring the party together as they labor to defeat Dem Rep. Ben Ray Lujan in November but the party Saturday appeared more torn than ever, with the Martinez-McCleskey faction backing Ronchetti and the Herrell-Pearce faction strengthening Martinez. Key to Martinez's victory appeared to be solid support in the southern congressional district which actually sent more voting delegates to the convention than the more populous ABQ district. Martinez and Ronchetti will now escalate the money race, hoping to outdo each other with media buys. Things could get rough. An anonymous email that the Ronchetti forces called a "smear" circulated among the delegates prior to the vote pointing out that Ronchetti has never voted in a GOP primary or donated to a Republican candidate. Meanwhile, Martinez, who has worked to avoid being tagged as a one issue candidate (pro-life), was nevertheless labeled just that by her foes. The Martinez-Ronchetti race should be entertaining for political junkies but it may not have a second act. Lujan is heavily favored to win blue New Mexico and the national R's appear to have no plans to target the race. ABQ CONGRESS It appears that Dem Rep. Deb Haaland will be facing Republican Michelle Garcia Holmes in the June primary. Garcia Holmes, a retired APD detective who has made runs for lt. governor and ABQ mayor, was the convention favorite, winning 66 percent of the delegates. Recent law school graduate Jared Vander Dussen received 25% to join her on the primary ballot. Brett Kokinadis failed to reach 20 percent. THE BOTTOM LINES Newly appointed Court of Appeals Judge Shammara Henderson, the first African-American on the court, ended up unopposed for the Dem primary nomination. Republicans made attorney Gertrude Lee their primary choice. . . The odds are growing that all three NM congressional seats will be occupied by women. That's a certainty in two of three districts and if the northern district elects a woman this year that would make it unanimous. . . Only one political candidate who failed to reach 20 percent delegate support at a state pre-primary convention has gone on to win the June primary. Gary King is the exception. He did not reach 20 percent at the 2014 pre-primary but went on to win the June Dem Guv primary.
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