Claire Chase

Fearing a rout at the March 7 Republican pre-primary convention that could cripple her candidacy, southern congressional hopeful Claire Chase is taking the highly unusual step of launching a "six figure" TV ad buy before the pre-primary to make up ground on Yvette Herrell, her chief rival for the coveted GOP nomination.

In her ad posted on Facebook Chase is show with a gun slung over her shoulder. Herrell comes in for a swipe getting dinged as "a career politician"

Haunting the Chase campaign are past Facebook posts ridiculing Trump and his presidential run. Herrell is expected to have those posts widely viewed via paid media leading up to the June 2 primary. Chase's TV ads put her in damage control mode and on the offense. Her campaign says:

We’re grateful that the outpouring of support for Claire’s candidacy from conservatives has put us in a position to let voters know early that Claire is the only pro-Trump political outsider in this race.

Herrell, the 2018 GOP nominee who lost a close race to Dem Xochitl Torres Small, is the heavy favorite at the pre-primary where contenders seek an official spot on the June ballot by garnering at least 20 percent support from the delegates. Failure to do so is tantamount to a death knell for a candidacy.

With or without TV ads. Chase is expected to cross that 20 percent threshold but by how much is critical. If she can keep Herrell in her sights at the convention Herrell will be denied valuable momentum.

A third candidate, Las Cruces businessman Chris Mathys, is in the race but a footnote to the high-powered Herrell-Chase rivalry.

Chase's most recent finance report showed her with over $550,000 in cash. Herrell reported over $460,000. Chase hails from a wealthy SE oil family and money is not an obstacle. Spending on very early TV whose main purpose is to influence several  hundred delegates reveals how expensive and hard-fought this campaign will be. Herrell does not have the same fund-raising capacity as Chase so it will be interesting whether she sees the need to respond with her own TV buy.

Watching avidly from the sidelines is Rep. Torres Small whose worry beads are never far from her side. How could they be as the R's start to go all out to get her out.

NORTHERN ACTION

Serna

The contest for the Dem nomination for the northern congressional seat has become a highly competitive battle. Santa Fe District Attorney Marco Serna is seen lagging front-runners Valerie Plame and Teresa Leger Fernandez but he still has some arrows in his quiver, including a play for the up in the air Native American vote. From Marco's spin room:

Serna announced that former Third Congressional Candidate and current President of the Navajo Nation San Juan River Farm Board, https://www.dinehbenally.comDineh Benally, endorsed his campaign. Benally endorsed Serna for his “family” and “community” driven campaign across the diverse district. “I am honored and humbled to have such strong Navajo support. . . we are sending a strong message that I will fight tirelessly for the Navajo people and Navajo Nation in Congress,” said Serna. 

The endorsement is nothing to sneeze at since the district's population is 20 percent Native American and overwhelmingly Democratic.

All three front-runners are expected to get 20 percent delegate support at the Dem pre-primary convention and win official spots on the June ballot. This one, kids, is like the Dem Prez derby. There's  no end in sight.

ROUNDHOUSE NOTES

ABQ Dem state Sen. Jerry Ortiz y Pino acknowledges that his bid to legalize recreational marijuana this session is dead. . . GOP Rep. Rod Montoya says Dem Rep. Nathan Small's proposal to revamp the Public Regulation Commission is "premature" and a "blatant power grab" on behalf of MLG. At a committee meeting Both D's and R's expressed support for Montoya’s take, pointing out that a PRC reform measure is on the November ballot. Why not let the people speak first?. . .