Monahan 2008

Better them than us. The Iowa caucus vote-counting disaster last night immediately brought to mind New Mexico's own struggles with caucus voting.

It was 2008 when the system here broke down and later was permanently discarded. The Democratic presidential caucus resulted in heavy turnout and some 17,000 provisional ballots that could not be counted on caucus night. The race between Obama and Clinton was as tight as a drum, but it took nine days to manually count the provisional ballots and finally declare that Clinton had overcome Obama by just one percent.

Before it was over CNN and other national media blackened New Mexico's eyes over the long vote count and for the long lines that had developed at the sole voting location on caucus day in Rio Rancho. It took years for then Democratic Party Chairman Brian Colòn to recover his reputation from the rout.

New Mexico, which adopted the caucus in 2004 to decide its delegates to the national Dem convention, did so at the urging of then Governor Bill Richardson who had national ambitions and wanted the spotlight to shine on New Mexico and his own future presidential plans. His team put tougher a first-rate plan and executed. The party was celebrated for the error free performance. But in 2008 Big Bill was running for president himself and practically living in Iowa where his campaign abruptly ended when he showed poorly in that year's caucus. The money and professionalism of '04 was not present in the NM Democratic Party caucus of '08. The result was the aforementioned caucus chaos and national black eye.

New Mexico in 2012 returned to the presidential primary system where to this day it is safely conducted in June. We say safely because by then the Dem Prez race is decided and our primary has minimal impact.

While some bemoan that New Mexico no longer strives to be a major player in picking the White House occupant, the fiasco that befell us when we played that game still smarts. A June primary seems just right today as we still await complete results from the pained Democratic Party of Iowa.
As we said, better them than us.

Here is the link to our in-depth reporting of that chaotic caucus week in New Mexico.

The year was 2008. I was there and that's how I remember it.

THE SIX SEEKERS

Montoya, Ronchetti, Martinez, Rich, Sanchez, Clarkson

Here they are, all six of the GOP candidates seeking what could be the thankless job of taking on Dem Rep. Ben Ray Lujan for the open US Senate seat.

The group has been busy attending county preprimary conventions in preparation for the statewide pre-primary March 7 convention at which half of the candidates could be effectively pushed out of the race. That often occurs when a candidate fails to win at least 20 percent of delegate support necessary to get an official spot on the June primary ballot.

Warriors in the two major opposing factions of the GOP have lined up behind weatherman Mark Ronchetti and shooting range part owner Louie Sanchez. Because of that they can fairly be called the very early front-runners. But as we appraise the action the campaign has more of a wide open feel to it.

Mick Rich was the '18 GOP Senate nominee and lost the race to Dem Sen. Heinrich, but contractor Rich has name ID and personal wealth. Elisa Martinez, a well-known anti-abortion activist, started the campaign that way but has been working to broaden her message. Gavin Clarkson served in the Interior Department in the Trump administration and was the GOP secretary of state nominee in '18. Rick Montoya is trying to carve out a message as the strongest Trump backer. We wouldn't rule anyone out yet and will wait for that March preprimary to do some sorting out.

However, Dem Lujan has $2 million in the bank, the race is not being targeted by the national R's and no R has won a NM Senate race since 2002. Whatever R emerges victorious is going to need some mistakes by Lujan who so far hasn't been very cooperative.

STILL A THREE WAY

Nothing in the latest money reports covering the final quarter of 2019 changes our view that the race for the Dem nomination for the northern congressional seat is a three way battle featuring Valerie Plame, Teresa Leger Fernandez and Marco Serna.

Plame has broken through the symbolic $1 million mark in total fundraising due to her national fame. But Leger Fernandez has held her her own with Plame in cash on hand. Serna lags but holds third place in cash in the seven way contest.

All three have a good shot at getting at least 20 percent delegate support at the important March 7 Dem preprimary convention. A candidate who fails to jump that hurdle almost always sees the money dry up.

Five Republicans are vying for the GOP nomination to face off with the Dem winner in the November election to determine who will replace Rep. Ben Ray Lujan. But in this all Dem all the time district no R's really need apply. The race will essentially be settled on primary night, June 2, when the Dem winner is crowned.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2020