Tuesday, September 10, 2019Latest Polling On MLG And Keller And Valerie Plame Hits With Racy Video Ad Soon after that mini-bombshell exploded the Kellerites were circulating a poll and arguing that Gonzales's possible challenge is doomed. The on line survey conducted in late July by DC pollster Stepehen Clermont had Keller garnering a 57 percent "good or excellent" approval rating with 37 percent not approving. Also, 61 percent of the respondents had a favorable view of Keller. Only 36 percent had an unfavorable opinion. That's good for the incumbent but nothing to rest on. The numbers can change in a flash. especially when the crime wave is rolling on and now with Gonzales like a fire eating dragon breathing down the Mayor's neck. The political community is going to want to see a head-to-head poll between the two before jumping to any conclusions. Meanwhile supporters of Governor Lujan Grisham are taking some solace from another on line poll in the wake of her poor polling performance in the Morning Consult on line survey released in April. Both polls have issues. The MC one seems to undercount Democrats and the latest one--conducted by the GQR firm in DC for the NEA-NM--surveyed only "adults" not registered and/or likely voters, although respondents were asked whether they were registered and their party affiliation. It has MLG's job approval rating among the 500 adults asked in late August at 58 percent with 42 percent disapproving. The MC poll in April had her getting only 44 percent job approval and 43 percent disapproving.
We have a polling problem. It is very expensive to conduct a survey of registered voters using live callers to landlines and cellphones. That is generally agreed to be the most accurate method. There have been no such public polls of the Governor or Mayor since they took office. There will be when both draw closer to their re-election bids. The NEA-NM poll on MLG is here. The Clermont poll on Keller is here. For what its worth, the GQR survey also asked about education and found that 57 percent of the respondents "strongly support" the teacher pay raises pushed through the Legislature by MLG. PLAME'S RACY AD  The ad has her in full command of a sporty Chevy Camaro as she maneuvers it backwards at high speeds as well as a variety of circles. She says the point is. . . Now I'm running for Congress because we are going backwards on national security, healthcare and women's rights. We need to turn our country around. . . While Plame's driving antics are eye catching, the money line she recites in the ad goes to one of her chief vulnerabilities--her relationship with the Jewish community. She says: I come from Ukrainian Jewish immigrants. In 2017 Plame tweeted a link to an article headlined “America's Jews are driving America's wars.” Since then she has battled charges of anti-semiticism. One of her nine opponents is likely to use that against her so the citing of her own Jewish background is her trying to get ahead of the curve. Plame's ad won't air on regular television but it could help her raise money nationally. In the ad she details how she was illegally outed as a CIA agent during the Bush administration and how Trump pardoned the perpetrator. That case is getting long in the tooth but will still ring bells among hardcore Dems. Her video already had well over a quarter million views on YouTube on the day of release, Plame would love nothing more than to close this race out early with her national appeal and money, but that's unlikely. Media in the race will be critical, but not necessarily decisive. For example, the deep local roots and national support women's group are giving to Teresa Leger Fernandez is a big hurdle for a newcomer like Plame to jump. Still, her online ad may have her driving backwards and in circles but it shows her campaign is headed in the right direction. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.   (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2019 |
  |
