Claire Chase

Republicans are bracing for another knock down, drag out fight for the 2020 GOP southern congressional nomination. Alligators and insiders are saying that Claire Chase is now poised to enter the fray in the weeks ahead, setting up a major face-off with 2018 nominee Yvette Herrell as well as Las Cruces businessman Chris Mathys.

Chase, 35, is chairwoman of the NM Oil and Gas Association board and from a wealthy SE oil family. She could be expected to put family money into the race. We covered her background on our February 7 blog where we first broke the news of her interest in the contest.

Some R's fear that their quest to take out Dem freshman Congresswoman Xochitl Torres Small will be damaged by a bitter primary fight as it was in '18. That's when former Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman and Herrell clashed. She won the primary but it appeared numerous Newman supporters shied way from her in the November election, helping to give Torres Small an upset win.

Herrell has been running again since she lost and has secured top tier party endorsements, including from state House Minority Leader Jim Townsend and other state reps she served with in Santa Fe. But her loss to Torres Small makes her appear vulnerable and Chase is apparently ready to pounce, say a number of prominent southern R's.

Newman was roasted (and hurt politically) for using controversial Susana Martinez political consultant Jay McCleskey on his '18 campaign. A Chase family member told one of our Alligators that, contrary to rumor, Chase "will not" be using McCleskey if she runs.

Meanwhile, some R's are voicing an option that was floated here a number of months ago--that Chase go after the GOP US Senate nomination rather than the southern US House seat. The theory being that a Senate loss against the favored Dems could set her up for bigger things but that a loss at home for the congressional seat could hurt her future chances.

Torres Small has to be welcoming a possible GOP brawl as she works to get re-elected to the district which has historically favored the R's. However, liberal Dems could primary her over her refusal to support impeachment of Trump as well as her refusal to back a $15 an hour minimum wage.

Attorney Rocky Lara, who was the Dem nominee for the southern seat in 2014, told me while I was in Carlsbad last week that she doesn't see Torres Small as vulnerable to a primary challenge and said her chances of winning a second term are "excellent."

Torres Small of Las Cruces has used the incumbency to build fences with conservatives in the SE.

PERMIAN FEEDBACK

Feedback on our special blog Monday on the Permian Basin oil boom in SE NM and what it could mean to the state's future. Reader George Richmond writes:

Very well done, and all of our State Legislators should read it.

Reader David Ryan writes:

Hi Joe, I enjoyed your write-up on the Permian Basin. My dog and I took a drive there back in May, and it was amazing. I wrote about it my wandering blog. Here’s the link.

Former ABQ Mayor Jim Baca, who is also a former director of the federal Bureau of Land Management, took a contrary view from ours:

This is all headed for a disaster in terms of climate change. If the Permian indeed is the biggest producer on the planet, then we should be ashamed. Climate change is real. Fossil fuels are making it happen. Yes, the money is good, but the Feds and state are letting the oil and gas go for a song. I was the last Commissioner to raise royalties and the feds have never done so. It is almost criminal. Joe, you need to write on the bigger picture. You spent time with the cheerleaders but not with the scientists who say time is running out. And it is.

Well, when we spot something real that can better New Mexico, we get the cheerleader pom poms out.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2019