Lujan and Pelosi

What shoe will drop next in the Democratic race for US Senate? How about that of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the benefactor of freshly minted Senate hopeful and US Rep. Ben Ray Lujan.

(Lujan's announcement video here. Santa Fe radio interviews here and here. NYT coverage here.)

Democrats anxious to avoid a high-profile, internecine battle for the 2020 Dem nomination were talking out loud hours after Lujan made his candidacy official Monday morning. How, they wondered, could such a battle be avoided?

That's where talk of Pelosi, the most prominent woman in American politics came in. (Sorry, AOC, it's not you yet).

Pelosi is largely responsible for Lujan's rise to #4 in the House leadership and for his past leadership of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Could she, while Lujan remains unopposed for the nomination, offer an endorsement?

What better way to send an unmistakable signal to Emily's List and other national organizations that they don't need to get on any anti-Lujan bandwagon, like the one that could be rolled out by Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver.

MTO still has to drop her shoe. She says a decision on the race will be made this month.

After making some initial noises about running ABQ Dem Congresswoman Deb Haaland has been quiet on the contest. She is not expected to give up her House seat to make the run. But she does highlight a weakness Lujan has--support among the most progressive members of his party.

A poll conducted among its NM members last week by the Progressive Change Campaign Committee--which supported Haaland in last year's November election--showed Lujan garnering 39 percent; Haaland at 32; MTO at 15 and 14 percent with no preference.

So there's some wiggle room there to challenge Lujan from the left, one that someone like Santa Fe's Valerie Plame could end up filling.

While Lujan has been making progress clearing any big name challengers from the Democratic field there could still be general election challenges from the Libertarians and/or Greens as well as the Republicans. But it's the Dem 2020 primary next year that is the prize. In Blue NM it is nearly tantamount to being elected.

Barring any surprises, the Senate race, will now go dark until MTO announces her decision or the middle of the month when Lujan releases his first quarter campaign fund-raising report.

THE TAKEAWAYS

He's in the race and here are the takeaways.

--The roll out appeared to go as planned with no mistakes and favorable and uncritical news coverage. He made no news except the news he intended--that he was a candidate for the US Senate.

--The 60 second video the campaign unveiled Monday morning on Twitter to make the candidacy official was generic and got the job done, but. . .

--Republicans looked for faults. GOP consultant Bob Cornelius said Lujan appeared "rushed" in the video and that he had put "too much sugar on his fruit loops" but he did not think it would have any negative impact.

--His video showcased his native New Mexican roots. The video was shot at his family home in Nambe in the North. Those roots will be a key factor if he eventually takes the Senate seat.

--The elephant in the room in Campaign '20 is Donald Trump but  Lujan steered clear of that large obstacle and instead settled on US Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell as his whipping boy, faulting him for being an obstructionist when it comes to health care and other issues.

--The hard left of the NM Democratic Party will be disappointed that Lujan doesn't yet plan to attack Trump in the primary, but so far they don't have a candidate to do the job. Lujan doesn't need Trump blasting him on Twitter or his forces here starting to make noise. Attacking the unknown McConnell fit fine with that strategy. For now.

--In a sign of the times, hours after Lujan announced his bid a PAC called "When Democrats Turn Out" had been formed to support him and was already soliciting campaign donations.

HERE THEY COME

As expected, as soon as Lujan's 60 second announcement video ended Dem candidates were lining up for his northern US House seat.