Rep. Lujan announced his Senate bid this morning.

An early Spring snow clung to the red chile ristras hanging on the porches in Santa Fe this weekend as political observers of all stripes clung to their chairs awaiting the latest chapter to unfold in the high-profile, high-stakes race for an open US Senate seat.

The North is where Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (BRL) was raised and where he flew to from Washington to plot a campaign and where today he is expected to officially throw his hat into the ring for the 2020 Democratic US Senate nomination.

One place he will do some hat throwing is at Santa Fe radio stations KVSF-AM 1260 and 103.7 FM KTRC at 1:30 p.m with talk host Richard Eeds (live stream here).

It was just Thursday that Attorney General Hector Balderas, Lujan's main rival for the Hispanic vote, took to ABQ radio to bow out of the contest. That changed the complexion of a race that has been barreling ahead in the political precincts of DC and La Politica despite there being no official hopefuls.

SENA SIGNS

Insiders confirm that Dan Sena, the NM native political consultant who helped Lujan engineer the D takeover of the US House last year at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), will be his lead consultant.

Sena recently opened the firm Sena Kozar Strategies with firm co-founder and veteran consultant Scott Kozar who helped NM US Rep. Xochitl Torres Small score her first win last year.

A Lujan insider says the search for a campaign manager is under way and is expected to come out of DC with the stamp of approval of the Senate Dem leadership.

A MONEY BOMB?

Lujan's past service as chair of the DCCC could be setting him up for a big financial reward in his campaign kitty. The first quarter reports that ended yesterday will be posted at the middle of this month and the DC rumor mill has it that Lujan could blow the doors off with that money report.

At year end he had $379,000 in cash in his coffers but the DC Alligators are talking at least a seven figure haul in just the last three months. We shall see but there is little doubt that Lujan's perceived fund-raising prowess is helping him clear the field of potential foes.

MAGGIE'S MOVE?

MTO (Moore, Journal)

Among the big names Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver (MTO) is the only one political pros give much of a chance of taking on Lujan. She appears to be feeling the pressure as she weighs her decision. Over the weekend she posted this on her Facebook page:

Wow. All sorts of Anglo Saxon males who I'm not married to or related to think it's their place to tell me what they think I should do with my life and career. Interesting.

That eyebrow raiser could return to visit the campaign if MTO takes the dive, but she is positioning herself as the woman candidate in hopes of vaulting to the top. National money will need to agree she has a shot because she will be starting essentially with zero.

As for the Lujan camp, they are officially quiet on Maggie's musings on getting certain male advice but his backers say that a BRL vs. MTO primary would help BRL run a "lean and mean" campaign and prep him for next November's general election. They don't appear worried.

MTO backers argue while Lujan would the the first Hispanic US Senator in 45 years, there has never been a woman Senator. They also see Lujan as untested in a statewide campaign and say that gives MTO an advantage, although she did lose a head-to-head contest for SOS against R Dianna Duran in 2014 before winning in '16 and '18. She also won two elections for Bernalillo County Clerk, the most populous county in the state where she is well-known and well-liked.

As for being "untested" the Lujan fans chuckle, saying the six term congressman just campaigned nationwide to maneuver the US House into the Democratic corner. Jibed one: "How many tests does he need to pass?"

The deadly development in a New Mexican Democratic primary for most of the state's history is one Hispanic candidate consolidating the vote. And that's what Lujan is on his way to doing with Balderas gone and no other big name, well-financed Hispanic on the horizon.

The Dem Alligators boosting Lujan say that even if he is not as well-known in the ABQ and southern congressional districts as his own in the North, his last name alone--a powerful one in state politics--will attract attention in those districts and a default vote for him.

That would leave MTO with the option of running a negative campaign against him and inviting one in return from Lujan.

FROM SAFE TO LIKELY

A number of national pundits have changed their rating on the NM Senate race from "Safe Democratic" to "Likely Democratic." That makes sense because the seat has no incumbent with Sen. Udall retiring. The unexpected could happen and suddenly you have a semi-competitive challenge from the Republican nominee. But the ranking of "Likely Democrat" still means a very uphill battle for the eventual GOP contender.

First, the race is unlikely to be targeted by the national GOP or the national PACS who can send in the necessary millions that would give the R nominee a reasonable shot.

Second, when it comes to statewide federal contests New Mexico is no longer purple, violet, turquoise or whatever color you may want to use to describe a "swing" state. We no longer swing at all on statewide federal races. Not at all.

The R's last won the presidential election here in 2004. That's three losses in a row and a fourth appears in store as Trump is unlikely to compete here.

The state's two US Senators have been Democrats since the 2008 election and the last Republican to win a Senate seat was Pete Domenici who was re-elected in 2002.

For the first time in decades the state's entire five member congressional delegation is Democratic, including the conservative US House southern district which can still be classified as a "swing district" because it has in fact swung between the two parties the last decade. How long it holds that status is in doubt as the Democrats appear to be tightening their grip there, thanks to the growing influence of Democratic Dona Ana County.

Statewide the Blue hold is also gathering steam, with all statewide executive offices held by Democrats, a Democratic Governor elected with 57 percent of the vote and a state House that arguably in the years ahead is headed toward having a super majority of Democrats.

Besides the southern congressional district the only red patches on the state's blue map are state Senate districts that reliably elect Republicans or conservative Democrats. And in 2020 some of those districts could be covered blue, especially in big BernCo where Democratic strength startled observers in 2018.

Taken collectively all of this signals--as it did in the 2018 US Senate race--that the winner of the June 2020 Democratic primary--is, as the national pundits predict, "likely" to be our state's next Senator.

DATELINE HERNANDEZ

Moonrise Hernandez, NM (Ansel Adams)

Quite a bit of mail about our coverage of the US Senate race. This one comes from the legendary village of Hernandez near Española, made so by this beautiful 1941 photograph by Ansel Adams. Reader Darel Madrid writes us from there:

Dear Joe, Recent events must feel like political manna falling from the sky. Who would or could have imagined? Seems like you and your trusty Alligators have plenty of work cut out for this next election cycle. Thank you for your world class reporting, Joe!

The last week or so has been one of the busiest of our career. Our father loved the ponies so maybe we picked up the love of a great horse race from him.

Thanks for checking in, Darel, and we know you'll always enjoy that "Moonrise" over Hernandez.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. 

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2019