Here is something you don't see every day--a state House Republican openly praising certain state Senate Democrats:

Thank God for Senate Democrats,” said Rep. Jane Powdrell-Culbert, R-Corrales. “Some of these (House ) freshmen really thought Senate Democrats would think their ideas were the best inventions since ice cream. Doesn’t work like that.”

Powdrell-Culbert, 69, has served in the House for 16 years, and while she was ready and willing to give the House freshmen a piece of her mind, she's probably also keeping a close eye on her Sandoval County legislative district. In 2018, a Democratic opponent scored 45 percent of the vote against her. The district is still GOP country but in the presidential  election year of 2020 the Dems could make her work for it as the higher turnout will lift them up some. That would keep Powdrell-Culbert on her toes.

Still, the feisty liberal freshmen are learning their lessons the hard way and with Powdrell-Culbert around class is definitely in session.

FAKE NEWS OR NO NEWS?

Was it "fake news or "no news yet" on the legislature's increase in the personal income tax for single filers making over $210,000 and for married couples filing jointly making over $315,000?

In our Monday blog we opted for "fake news" because the tax increase is tied to a precondition--it takes effect only if state revenues in the fiscal year that begins July 1 do not grow more than five percent over the current budget.

Several readers argued that that is not exactly fake news if you believe the Lujan Grisham administration's budget estimates for the 2020 fiscal year. Fair enough. For now we'll call the measure "no news yet."

The budget officials project that while this year's general fund revenue will come in at $7.59 billion, the next budget year will see that shrink to $7.43 billion, forcing the tax hike to take effect.

However, what if they are wrong? If revenue hits just a bit over $7.969 million--an increase of over five percent--the tax would die. And the way this oil boom has been generating cash, we would not count that out. If oil, currently priced in the high 50's a barrel, went up 15 bucks and stayed there, we could easily hit the mark, and we may do that without any price increase, given the historic and stunning volumes being produced in the SE Permian Basin.

The Santa Fe bean counters nave been notoriously unreliable in recent years. During the recession they predicted state revenue shortfalls that were not nearly as worse as those that occurred and during the oil boom they have underestimated the cash flow to state coffers.

As for the new tax rate, it would be a mild increase on the wealthiest taxpayers, giving them a a rate of 5.9 percent, up from today's 4.9 percent.

ABQ Dem State Rep. Javier Martinez, vice-chair of the House Taxation and Revenue Committee, agreed with our assessment that the possible tax increase measure does not restore a progressive tax structure. He wants an interim committee to come up with such a plan that addresses all the tax brackets. He also might want to look at creating a new bracket--for taxpayers making over $400,000 or $500,000. Should they pay the same as the "little guy" making the $210,000?

One correction: In our Monday blog we said if the tax rate were to take effect, it would start on January 1, 2022. Actually it would begin January 1, 2021. And a tip of the hat to the ABQ Journal capitol bureau chief Dan Boyd for supplying additional information for this report.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2019