March Madness came to La Politica in a big way Monday. Democratic US Senator Tom Udall, 70, announced he would not seek a third term in 2020, unleashing a flood of speculation over which Democrats are best positioned to replace him and leaving frustrated R's on the sidelines looking for a strong contender.

The announcement came as a mild surprise. Udall had made public statements indicating another run but there had also been speculation that he was ready to get out of DC. That started as far back as two years ago when he toyed with the idea of running for Governor.

Insiders say his health was not an issue and neither was that of his 80 year old wife Jill Udall who has had past health issues but ably presided over December's inauguration ceremonies for MLG.

They said that Udall simply did not want to spend the rest of his days in the Senate and wanted to do other things with his life. He said in his announcement that would include unspecified public service. He also said:

The worst thing anyone in public office can do is believe the office belongs to them, rather than to the people they represent.

Udall's announcement transcript here. Video here. NYT coverage here.

Udall's decision was reminiscent of the one made in 2011 by then 67 year old Senator Jeff Bingaman who decided not to seek another term in 2012. Like Udall he would have had a relatively easy re-election, but Bingaman had simply grown tired after 30 years on Capitol Hill. Udall has also been on the Hill 20 years and eight years as NM attorney general. He started in the US House in 1998.

In addition, the Republicans are poised to keep control of the Senate, not an appetizing prospect for the liberal Udall who hails from a storied political family out of Arizona and whose chief legacy will be his shepherding of environmental legislation and protections.

NO APPOINTMENT

Don't look for Udall to resign the seat and let Governor Lujan Grisham make the appointment to fill out the remainder of his term. He said Monday he will finish it out.

GAME ON

Now the guessing game is on as to who will emerge as the front-runner or front-runners for the highly coveted June 2020 US Senate nomination. After all, with the Republicans on the ropes the nomination could be tantamount to getting elected. The November election should be an easy lay up for the Dem primary victor.

CROWDED OR NOT?

Will it be a crowded free-for-all primary or one in which the field is quickly winnowed? Probably the latter because of the cost of a contested primary. One Dem political consultant pegs it at $3.5 million; another at $5 million if the race is really hot and heavy. Only a handful of candidates will be able to raise that amount of cash in the next year.

WHO IS THE FRONTRUNNER?

Balderas

Absent a list of any official candidates yet, the early front-runner for the Dem nomination right now is Attorney General Hector Balderas. That's because of his high name ID, his statewide wins for state auditor, as well as AG, and his previous race for the US Senate nomination in 2012 against Martin Heinrich.

His voting history shows a strong appeal to Hispanics. Some Hispanic groups are already clamoring on social media for one of their own to replace Udall.

In 2018 Balderas was the top vote getter statewide in the northern and ABQ congressional districts. Only Torres Small edged him in the southern district. There has not been a NM Hispanic US Senator since Joe Montoya ended his term in 1976 even though New Mexico is a majority-minority state.

Balderas reported over $600,000 in cash in his campaign account late last year. Under the law that money can't be spent directly on a federal race but it could be transferred to a PAC which could be run by a director friendly to Balderas. Also, he has been cultivating big name donors for his AG races and they could now be tapped for a Senate bid.

Expect Balderas to dive in soon. His statement:

Today’s focus is on Senator Udall and I’m grateful for his service as we continue to work together improving the lives of New Mexico children and families. After discussions with my wife and family, I will provide any updates at the appropriate time.

While being the very early front-runner has its advantages, it could also make Balderas a target of negative campaigning.

THE OTHERS

The others include Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver who has made no secret of her desire to serve in the Senate. Could she get the support of Emily's List and the big money it brings to a race? Will another prominent woman join the fray? Those are questions hovering over a potential candidacy.

Toulouse Oliver has a significant base in BernCo where she served as county clerk. Anglo Democratic women have been a major force in the Dem Party in the ABQ metro. If she could win the state's largest county she would be a statewide threat. However, some Dem analysts are already fretting that a race with Balderas and Toulouse Oliver as the top contenders could turn nasty and divisive with men vs. women, rural vs. city and all of it with a racial tinge.

(By the way, in a first test of Campaign '20 Balderas came with a news release praising the outgoing Udall at 12:45 p.m. and Toulouse Oliver hit the wires at 1:05 p.m. Can Maggie catch up? :)

OUR DC TRIO

Rep. Lujan

New Mexico's three Dem congressional representatives--Deb Haaland, Xochitl Torres Small from the south and Rep. Ben Ray Lujan from the north are all mentioned as possible candidates. But Haaland and Torres Small only began their first House terms a couple of months ago. It may be too soon for either of them. The betting line is they stay put but that same line had Udall probably running. Haaland could be an intriguing candidate. A Native American female US senator would be another first for her, the state and nation.