(In an interview with the Santa Fe New Mexican late Tuesday Lujan confirmed the POLITICO report, saying he is “seriously considering” the Senate race.)

His ten years as a congressman with national credentials would have strong appeal to voters. The fact that he could be the state's first Hispanic Senator in nearly 45 years would also excite a large swath of the state Democratic Party. The timing looks right.

But Lujan's potential foes are not laying down their arms, not just yet. Their backers opined that Lujan has "not been tested" in a statewide race, that he is not that well-known in ABQ and that the Politico piece was aimed at trying clear the field without making a decision.

If Lujan does get in, the field of big names should be thinned considerably. Right now that field is frozen solid waiting for Lujan's decision.

But one or two names may linger even if Lujan gives it a go. Attorney General Hector Balderas could or could not be one of them. Raising the money to compete with Lujan would be a tall mountain to climb as would fighting for the Hispanic vote.

We won't have to wait long. Balderas' campaign says he will make an announcement concerning his potential candidacy Thursday at 9:30 a.m. on ABQ radio station 102.5 FM and release a video at the same time. 

Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver could hang around since she doesn't have to give up her day job to make the run. But where would the money come?

ABQ Rep. Deb Haaland has good name ID in ABQ but are you going to gamble the congressional seat you just won to take on a five term congressman who is arguably a national powerhouse?

Ditto for southern US Rep. Xochitl Torres Small. You are going to do what after serving just a couple of months in the House? Give it up for a long shot?

Right about now Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is liking what he sees. Lujan inching closer to a candidacy thus avoiding a nasty, internecine war that is shaping up if Lujan doesn't get in.

The Politico article puts Lujan on the doorstep of a candidacy. His foot should come through the door soon.

WHY THE SENATE?

Sen. Chavez

When he finally does decide it will set the course for the campaign to come for the Senate seat to be vacated next year by Dem Senator Udall.

The frantic chatter and near panic in the circles of possible candidates in the immediate aftermath of Udall's surprise retirement announcement quickly gave way to the realization that the contest is now in the hands of the politically savvy northern New Mexico lawmaker whose guile and work ethic have placed him in the upper tier of the leadership ranks of the U.S House of Representatives. Now he could take those skills into the US Senate and there are many good reasons why he may try.

The conventional wisdom has the 46 year old staying put in the US House because he is now Assistant Speaker, #4 in the Dem leadership ranks and not an unlikely prospect for either majority leader or Speaker of the House in the foreseeable future. Why would anyone give up that position to become a junior member of the Senate? Well. . .

That "foreseeable future" means that there will soon be a fight for power in the House as the veteran leadership there ages out, but there is no guarantee Lujan will win that fight. He has many competent competitors waiting to mix it up with him. And his longtime patron, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, 78, will soon say goodbye to the Hill, leaving Lujan without the ally who paved the way for him.

From his vantage point the US Senate may look less murky. He would be one of 100 not one of 435. The leadership there is also aging and soon there will be power struggles for succession. A skilled political player like Lujan could in a relatively short period position himself for leadership. Right now the Rs have the Senate majority but that is sure to change a number of times in the decades ahead. And being in the minority in the Senate is a much more comfortable place than the House.

Lujan's pluses include his relative youth. He would only be 48 if he took office in 2021.

Then there is his heritage. As a Hispanic Democratic Senator he would not give up any of the visibility he currently enjoys on the national stage, In fact, it would probably increase because he would be representing the fastest growing demographic in the Democratic Party which would push him even more to the fore.

Then there is New Mexico. Once in the seat a Senator here rarely loses it. Lujan could look out at the next three decades and see himself accumulating power and prestige that might only be rivaled in the state's history by the legendary Dennis Chavez who served from 1935-1962.

Securing the chairmanship of a powerful committee or even majority leader will play out in his mind's eye as he weighs his decision. In a buoyant mood he might allow himself to entertain the thought of even surpassing Chavez's legend. Then his mind may wander back to the House where the mud wrestling never ends.

That's where you must run every two years and travel ceaselessly. Where you can accumulate power but where it is much more diffuse than the Senate. In the Senate you can get things done. You can bring home the bacon in a big way. Only Speaker of the House comes without the baggage. He has to ask himself how close am I to that really? Do I have the staying power in the House that I would have in the Senate? It could be years before I get a second shot if the first one comes up short. Things can change fast in the lower chamber. In the Senate you can age like fine wine. If you're not careful, in the House you can age like you're in a nursing home.

Lujan has said he will mull over his decision about a run for the Democratic nomination for Senate "in the weeks to come."  That's driving other potential candidates crazy as they wait him out. But that's how it is when you're dealing with a man who has time on his side.

FOLLOW THE MONEY

Lujan knows where the money is. His recent stint as chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee put him in contact with the major donors across the nation. And if his announcement clears the field of any serious rivals--as expected--the cost of the primary could plummet. At the end of the year Lujan had $379,000 in his campaign account, plenty to do some polling before he makes a final decision.

Supporters of ABQ Rep. Deb Haaland who would like to see her in the Senate are already tearing apart Attorney General Balderas. Haaland's backers say the party has passed Hector by, that he is way too conservative to get the nomination. But supporters of Balderas say Haaland is too far left and predict they would beat her in her own backyard of Bernalillo County.

Balderas had $608,000 in his campaign account at last count but as we blogged yesterday the legal beagles say he can't use that money for a federal race but could transfer it to a PAC that could put it to work on his behalf.

Haaland has some money issues that she will have to be overcome if she makes the run. Her year end FEC report shows her with just $20,000 in cash and $43,000 in debt. Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver reported $46,000 in cash on her December 6 report.

If Haaland and Toulouse Oliver end up in the race a key question is who will the powerful women's group Emily's List side with and support with their bulging cash coffers? Or do they stay out?

Haaland is better positioned than Toulouse Oliver to tap national cash because she is the first Native American woman in the US House and, if elected, would be the first in the Senate.

Balderas could be expected to tap in-state money. His BFF and State Auditor Brian Colon is one of the state's most experienced fund-raisers. Also, Balderas has several statewide runs under this belt giving him a long potential donor list. He would also benefit from national Hispanic groups that want to see NM elect a Hispanic US Senator.

There are plenty of Democrats who are rooting for Lujan to get in, given the bloodbath that could occur if he doesn't. Balderas, Toulouse Oliver and Haaland is a recipe for high level nuclear warfare that might give the R's some hope.

20 NOT 30

We made an error in the first draft of our monster blog on Senator Udall's retirement announcement. We said he had been on Capitol Hill for 30 years when in fact he has been there 20 years. He was first elected to the US House in 1998 not 1988 as we blogged. Udall also served eight years as NM attorney general which puts him near the 30 year mark of public service.

I know what happened. I was thinking about his run for the US House in 1988 which he lost to Steve Schiff and somehow I equated that with his DC start. See that Tom, you won that one after all. In any event, it was quite the long day and night but we should have caught that error. Ten lashes with the wet noodle are definitely in order. . .

Hey, not that hard!

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2019