Friday, March 29, 2019

A Wild Week Riding The La Politica Roller Coaster: Udall Retires; Ben Ray Emerges; Balderas Bows Out And Plame Plays

Monahan & Udall in DC
Thursday may have been the wildest day we see in the long 2020 campaign for the state's newly open United States Senate seat.

The whole week was a wild ride on the roller coaster of La Politica, starting with the surprise retirement announcement of Dem US Senator Tom Udall. Then. .

Attorney General Hector Balderas bowed out of the contest; news from DC had Rep. Ben Ray Lujan announcing his candidacy on Monday and outed CIA spy Valerie Plame of Santa Fe told us she is now weighing a US Senate bid that would bring some star power to the table.

It doesn't get much better than an open US Senate seat and the number of possible Dem contenders immediately swelled to over a dozen but in what seemed like a blink of an eye that list shriveled and Ben Ray Lujan seemed poised to make the nomination his.

The R's began their hunt for a name contender to make the longshot race but were coming up empty.

Also, speculation began to fill the political cups to overflowing as to who would succeed Ben Ray in the northern congressional seat if, as expected, he makes a run for Senator. Let's put it all together.

The buzz around Balderas was near deafening. Would he get in and thus split the important Hispanic vote and attempt to deny Ben Ray? In the end the AG made the smart move and a lot fewer enemies. On rock radio 102.FM in ABQ and in a 40 second video he explained his reasons:

The first is of course, I love being attorney general. I wanted to continue to serve my community by staying in my community. Secondly for me it was a personal decision. I’ve now become a legal guardian of my adult daughter Ariana.… Quite frankly we couldn’t survive the travel schedule of a United States senator right now, flying every day to D.C. and all over the world. It’s just not in the cards right now for me.”

Balderas' daughter has Downs Syndrome.

His announcement seemed to rule out a run for the Lujan US House seat since the travel demands on a congressman are even more intense than those of a Senator.

There's not much visibility for a political future for Balderas who will finish his second and final term as AG in 2022. He made a 2012 run for US Senate and was stopped in the primary by Martin Heinrich. Last year he was moving toward running for Governor but backed off in the face of the muscle shown by MLG. And now this final attempt to take a bite out of the apple comes up short. Maybe down the road, another attempt at Governor? But that's a long, long way off. His political candle is not entirely snuffed out but it is now only a flicker.

PEBBLES WASHED AWAY

For Lujan, Balderas represented the final pebbles in the road on his path to the nomination. No other major Hispanic contenders are expected to challenge him and without two major Hispanic candidates splitting the vote the door appears shut on Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver. DC Dems want ABQ Rep. Deb Haaland to stay put in the seat she was just elected to in November and while Plame would add star power to the race, a victory would be an upset that defies description.

(In a first draft Thursday we said Plame was married to former Ambassador Wilson. They are divorced.)

Now that he has cleared the field of major threats, Inside Elections in DC (run by Nathan Gonzales) quotes sources as saying Lujan will make his candidacy official Monday. That will further freeze the field and give the 46 year old five term lawmaker the freedom to establish his own pace and define the messaging for the primary as well as the general election.

In a way it's almost comical or surreal. No one has even officially announced and we and others have been covering what will likely be recorded as the most crucial days of the 2020 US Senate race. From here on out, its Lujan's to lose.

NORTHERN ACTION

The list of potential Democratic candies to replace Ben Ray in his northern seat is growing as long as your arm. (No R's need apply in this most Democratic of congressional districts).

The Alligators have Public Regulation Commissioner Valerie Espinoza, a former Santa Fe county clerk, as a possible early front-runner for the Dem nod. Her PRC district covers much of the congressional district, she is an experienced campaigner, can raise money and would be the first woman to represent the seat. However, Santa Fe City Councilor Rene Villarrael is also one to watch, a well-liked councilor and a lifelong friend of Congressman Lujan.

It is anything but a done deal. This one is going to cause binge watching among the political junkies. and their screens will be filled with plots and subplots.

The possibles include Santa Fe County District Attorney Marco Serna; Santa Fe City Councilor Rene Villarrael; State Rep. Andrea Romero; former State Rep. Carl Trujillo and Santa Fe State Rep. Linda Trujillo And New Mexico House Speaker Brian Egolf. That's just for starters. Our keyboard batteries would lose their charge if we kept going.

And there you have the week that was, about as pumped up with political adrenaline as it gets.

Thanks for joining us. 

P. S. If you’re hanging in Santa Fe Sunday morning around 11 stop by the Collected Works Bookstore on Galisteo Street where we will update the latest from New Mexico politics for Journey Santa Fe.

I'm Joe Monahan, reporting to you from Albuquerque, NM.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. 

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2019