It may not be earth shattering but the 2019 legislative session is shaping up as one of the most consequential in years. And, unlike the past eight legislative sessions under the previous Governor, these final days are busy--really busy. Let's try to fit it all in, starting with our takeaways:

--The hefty hike in the public education budget is a done deal. The Senate Finance Committee has approved an increase of nearly $450 million million (16 percent). That puts the state on track to restore funding stripped away in the Great Recession and to begin satisfying a court order that found the state violating the Constitution when it comes to educating the many at risk students in the state. Supportive legislative Republicans and their leader Sen. Stuart Ingle get a special tip of the hat for realizing the necessity of this boost. 

--The ETA is A-OK, according to the Legislature and Governor. It passed the House Tuesday and is on MLG's desk for her signature. The Energy Transition Act establishes a goal of having the state's energy sector going to 50 percent renewables by 2030 and 80% renewables by 2040. That's big. The bill, however, also provides what critics call a 'bail out" of PNM for the cost of closing down its coal-fired generating facilities. That's also big and could lead to a court challenge.

--If the legislature passed only those two bills, they alone would make for a significant session, especially compared to the do-nothing gatherings of the recent past. But there's much more.

--The state budget has yet to go to the Governor but it will soon and total about $7 billion. That's a $700 million increase over last year. But hold on. There's another cash cow that is flying under the radar.

—Bam! Senate Finance approved a capital outlay bill this week with one time money coming from the booming oil fields that will total nearly a billion dollars. Whew. It's actually $933 million for the "pork" projects for individual legislators and the Governor, such as new buildings, parks and the like. If the Legislature can do a better job of rolling out all that dough, you are talking some serious economic stimulus.

As fiscal hawk and Senate Finance Chair John Arthur Smith grumbled this week:

Politicians who like spending money really enjoyed this session.

--It is really incredible to see these new numbers come rolling in from the Permian and to try to internalize what they could mean for this largely impoverished and under educated state. It's just awesome:

(NM oil output) hit all-time record of nearly 246 million barrels in 2018, according to the latest statistics from the state Oil Conservation Division. That’s up 42 percent over 2017, when New Mexico produced nearly 173 million barrels, also a record high at that time.

If this keeps up we're taking John Arthur to the gambling tables in Vegas for a weekend.

NO BUST IN SIGHT

We've blogged a number of times that the surprise for lawmakers could be how long this oil boom continues and keeps a flood of cash coming in for a long period--not the old boom-bust scenario. Chairman Smith seems to be catching on:

That preliminary forecast on surplus money for FY 2020, released late last year, may now be too low, said Sen. John Arthur Smith. . . “It appears we’ll generate more than what was forecast in December, even over $1.2 billion,” Smith said. “And for next year’s budget, we’ll likely see a steady revenue stream from oil and gas. I think production will hit 300 million barrels by the end of this year.”

Folks, it's Ground Control to Major Tom time: All Fiscal Hawks please land immediately. You've been grounded for the foreseeable future.

But Dem State Senator John Sapien of Corrales is still flapping those wings:

We’re like a homeless person who wins the lottery. We’re going to spend it all, and in two to three years we’re going to be broke again.

What? Are homeless people winning lotteries in NM? Anyway. . .

John, they are not spending it all. The budget reserve for the coming budget year is an unprecedented 20 percent and then there's that new rainy day fund (that we find excessive) that will see even more millions set aside. And then there's the tax increase bill to provide a back-up revenue stream in the event of an oil crash. Not all of it will survive the final legislative hours but a conservative estimate is that well over $100 million in new annual tax revenue will go on the books. (Unfortunately, it appears the restoration of the progressive tax system may not stand up to  conservative scrutiny). Still...

We don't say it too often, but dammit, that is pretty good legislating. Now the job is to come up with a multi-year plan for the surpluses to come.

The Governor and the Legislature have been presented with one of the greatest opportunities  in state history.

It's time to stop fearing the future and embrace its possibilities.

SAY IT AGAIN

Ryan Flynn of the NM Oil and Gas Association has said it before and he says it again. Reacting to the historic oil gusher numbers of 2018, he declared: