A decade of austerity economics and politics comes to an abrupt end this week in Santa Fe as the state's 112 lawmakers gather for a sixty day legislative session that kicks off tomorrow with Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham delivering her first State of the State speech.

Let's cut to the chase and dive into the newfound prosperity and what it means for our enchanted land. . .

--The Governor sent down a proposed budget of $7.1 billion for the budget year that starts July 1. That's $800 million higher than the current $6.3 billion General Fund budget and a result of the oil boom in the SE. Pushing out that kind of money should stimulate the overall economy.

--Remember in 2009-'10 when the Obama stimulus came with over $3 billion for NM to help alleviate the economic crash? That money, ably administered by former Gov. Toney Anaya, staved off the worst impacts of the then raging Great Recession. This new money could be a spark plug for pockets of the economy outside of the already booming SE.

--Add in the ABQ Netflix deal which calls for the company to pump $100 million a year into its production business here. Now you're talking stimulus.

---However, look for "Netflix resistance." The Governor is proposing that the entire backlog from the state's film incentives--some $250 million--be paid to Netflix and other film companies in one fell swoop. Opponents say that is too much and want it trimmed, arguing that public schools and other agencies have had to wait years for increased funding and that some of that $250 million should go to other priorities and that the lucrative film industry can and should wait in line a little longer.

--The Governor is proposing a jump in the state's advertising/marketing budget from $11 million to over $17 million. That is a big league budget--an increase aimed at attracting even more visitors here which will stimulate local economies.

--The Martinez led war on public education and school teachers is over. The Governor is proposing a significant $500 million increase in the public schools budget which would include a teacher pay raise of six percent. The depressed psychology of the education community is about to change. The hope is that will contribute to better student outcomes. There's also $113 million to provide for low-income students, minorities and others at-risk. And $60 million to increase the number of Pre-K slots, and the number of Pre-K educators.

--Santa Fe Mayor Alan Webber has to be cheering the budget. New workers at agencies such as CYFD should boost his city's economy--and perhaps give young college grads a reason to stay around and maybe land a government job as a multitude of vacancies throughout the government are filled.

MORE KEY POINTS

--SE NM representatives appear poised to get their wish for substantial road money to repair and maintain the jammed roads in the oil boom counties of Eddy and Lea.

--Enviros will also be winners. State regulatory agencies will get full funding to keep an eye on the oil boys and make sure they keep things clean while they frack away.

--Austerity hawks are in retreat after a decade of ruling the roost but Lujan Grisham nodded to them by agreeing that the state's budget reserve should be an unusually high 25 percent to protect against a possible collapse in oil prices. Okay, Governor, give them that, but with this in mind. . .

--A potentially huge story for the state is that the consensus opinion among the hawks and their allies in the conservative media are wrong. That opinion argues that this surplus will inevitably be a one time event, that oil will collapse and that NM will be back in the poor house.

---What if they are wrong? And they probably are. Many energy experts (and House Speaker Egolf) expect the oil boom to continue for a number of years and continue to deliver extraordinary surpluses. If so, that will require diligence and planning from state government and our part-time citizen legislators. Shouldn't our leaders start talking about the progress that could be made if that is indeed the case and make plans for a brighter future, instead of saying we still can't move the needle much because our good fortune is destined to dissolve?

--This time could be different. The recent news that NM is now sitting on one of the largest oil reserves in the history of the world and with fracking making possible its easy recovery, a slide in oil prices may not be as damaging because it would be against a backdrop of increased production, even if not at current record levels.

--Lujan Grisham has learned something. She self-describes as a "fiscal conservative" and while her budget is certainly no drunken sailor document, it does lean liberal. Why? Is it in part because she saw what really makes things tick during her six year stint as a congresswoman in DC? If she has escaped the NM poverty mentality bubble--and this budget indicates that--the austerity forces will try to suck her back in. That will be her fight.

--Advice to the new Governor: Tip your hat but do not genuflect to the doom and gloom crowd in your State of the State. Acknowledge the need for a bit of caution but emphasize much more the very real reasons for renewed hope that we can finally chip away at New Mexico's dismal standings. That is what has been missing for so long as the economy tanked and the youngsters fled. Turning the psychology helps turn the economy. The state's people are finally ready to hope again. In your "Go Big" State of the State don't rein them in; tell them you are hoping with them.

STATE OF THE CITY 

Speaking of changing the psychology, ABQ Mayor Tim Keller came up with a novel way to deliver his State of the City address. He threw a party at the National Hispanic Cultural Center that attracted a crowd of several hundred.

The event had all the trimmings of a political rally, including the appearance of Gov. Lujan Grisham and Congresswoman Deb Haaland. The Mayor's speech was preceded by slick videos featuring the nine city councilors touting their accomplishments.

Republicans charge that Keller's optics may be first class but his results aren't living up to them. He begged to disagree and after thirteen months on the job said in his speech:

After a decade of rising crime, a stagnant economy and a lack of opportunities for kids, Albuquerque was a city at a crossroads. Burqueños chose to take responsibility for our problems and take back control of our future. Last year we brought focus and urgency to our most pressing problems. We’re making progress but it is going to be a long road ahead; and we can’t do this alone It’s going to take all of us coming together as individuals and as governments, from all across the state to help the Duke City.

Keller was elected with over 60 percent of the vote in November 2017. Insiders say his approval rating continues to hover in that vicinity.

The full event, including the Mayor's speech, can be seen here. Meanwhile, Gov. Lujan Grisham will deliver her first State of the State address tomorrow sometime after 12:30 p.m. It will be streamed live on most of the local TV station websites and on the Legislature’s website.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2019