The price of oil continues to hug the low 50's, which is around the $55 mark that the bean counters at the Legislative Finance Committee are counting on to give the state a budget surplus in the vicinity of $1.5 billion and perhaps more.

The oil price is almost as critical to the success of Governor-elect Lujan Grisham as her Election Night victory. Without that surplus you're pedaling in place. With it you're off to the races.

The increasing talk of a possible national recession brought about by jittery markets is worrisome for New Mexico policy makers. The old paradigm that New Mexico is largely immune to national downturns is long gone. It was only this week that it was announced the ABQ metro finally inched past the employment levels it had in 2007. That's 12 years of digging out of a deep, deep hole while our neighboring states were booming.

Much of the employment gains have been in the nongovernmental sector, with low-paying service and hospitality jobs making up a large share. The construction industry has rebounded on the strength of the Los Lunas Facebook build out.

A national recession here would hit those who are least prepared to weather it--those in the service and hospitality industry making low wages. Those businesses would naturally slow as consumers shied away and tourism contracted.

Until the Great Recession took hold a decade ago good paying government jobs (and government contracting jobs) were the stabilizing force. But we lost many of them through federal budget cuts. The economy here is now more dependent on national trends.

Still, there is an argument to be made that another recession might not be as severe as it would be elsewhere. But that's because our state has already lost so much in the way of jobs, economic development, stagnant home prices and population that there is essentially much less to lose.

Given the iffy economic backdrop the projected giant state budget surplus looms large. It could finance an array of projects that would create jobs and provide some economic stimulus that could soften the blow of a downturn.

ECONOMIC DRIVERS

There are some but not many economic drivers outside of the booming oilfields that could give 2019 a boost.

--The Netflix deal with ABQ is set at $100 million a year in production for ten years.

--If the NM Racing Commission approves a racino for the Clovis area that would draw Texas tourists to that region. The commission will decide by the end of the year.

--The aforementioned Facebook build out in Los Lunas should continue, recession or no recession.

--The incoming administration in Santa Fe is expected to boost employment levels in critical agencies like CYFD where jobs have been cut. That will give the Santa Fe area a pop.

--The City of ABQ is working to add hundreds of police officers to its force. Thanks to a tax increase those are now well paying jobs. If a good share of them are not simply lateral transfers from other metro police agencies they will add to the economy.

ECONOMIC WORRIES

As usual, there are many things to fret over when it comes to advancing the state and metro economy.

--The ABQ International Balloon Fiesta--the state's premier tourist attraction that brings tens of millions into the economy--appears to be wobbling. Attendance has peaked, which is to be expected, but management execution is also lagging, as witnessed by this year's park and ride fiasco. It wasn't the first time and if they can't get it fixed the damage could be irreversible. The Fiesta has already permanently lost thousands of paying fans because of the incompetence.

--Crime is reported to be coming down some in ABQ but nowhere near fast enough to make the metro more economically attractive. The levels reached here have been atrocious, so you will need stunning drops to reverse the perception of outsiders. So far, we have not seen that kind of decline or any inkling of it.

--Education performance lags badly, another key driver in attracting good paying jobs for the locals. If Lujan Grisham and company can't give a convincing presentation on how and why that will fundamentally change, there will be more folks pulling up their stakes and moving on.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Longtime GOP State Senator Carroll Leavell has resigned. The 82 year old has been battling cancer for a number of years. He was first elected to his Eddy and Lea county seat in 1996. The county commissions of those two counties could recommend a replacement (s) to Gov. Martinez whose term expires at month's end but the new governor would get the appointment if the process goes past Jan. 1. Democratic Senator Pete Campos offered these thoughts on Leavell of Jal:

He has a sharp intelligence that guided us through tough financial times, an uncanny ability to present the most complex insurance matters and assure his colleagues that the legislative purpose was written for the common good, and presented himself in the most humble and dignified fashion which earned our confidence that “his word was his bond.” State Senator Leavell, you are a great statesman and confidant. God’s speed to you and Bobbie in all that you do.

The NM Senate Republican Office came with this tribute.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2018