Thursday, November 01, 2018New Poll Has Guv Race Tightening And Herrell Breaking Away From Torres Small; Lyons Ahead In Land Office Bid, Plus: Can The R's Escape With No Lost State House Seats? And: Join Us For Special Friday And Weekend Blogging In The Final '18 Stretch The race for Governor is no runaway and shows signs of tightening, according to a robocall landline poll commissioned by ABQ public relations firm Carrol Strategies that was conducted Monday, Oct. 29 and released by KOB-TV Wednesday night. The poll also says that Republican Yvette Herrell has opened up a five point lead against Dem opponent Xochitl Torres Small in the hotly contested southern congressional contest; that Republican Pat Lyons could be on his way to victory in his race for state land commissioner against Dem Stephanie Garcia Richard; that the race for state auditor between appointed GOP Auditor Wayne Johnson and Dem Brian Colón is close and that Sen. Martin Heinrich is poised to garner over 50 percent in his three way race for re-election. Now the details. . . The survey of 1,200 likely voters shows Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham with a leg up on Republican Steve Pearce but far from running away with the contest, as other recent polls indicated could be happening. In the Carroll survey it's Lujan Grisham 50.6 percent to Pearce's 45.5 percent. 3.9 percent were undecided. That's a five percent lead and contrasts with two other recent Guv polls that both had MLG leading Pearce by nine, 53-44. The poll found that Pearce is keeping the race in play by not getting blown out in MLG's ABQ area congressional district. There, she garners 52.0% to his 45.6%. Pearce has been making the metro crime wave a major issue and that appears to be holding him here. As expected, Pearce scores a win in his southern congressional seat besting Lujan Grisham there 54 to 41. In the heavy Dem northern congressional seat it's MLG carrying the day with 57 percent to Pearce's 38. This poll will obviously cheer Republicans who have argued all along that the race is close. The early September ABQ Journal poll had it 50-43 for Lujan Grisham. The second and final Journal poll is to be released over the weekend and the odds seem good it will also show Pearce at least within shouting distance. Still, Pearce has a lot of work to do in a few days. Already 300,000 New Mexicans have voted early. Experts expect total turnout to be anywhere from 605,000 to 640,000. The margin of error in all the statewide races in the poll is plus or minus 2.8 percent. HERRELL IN THE LEAD  The September ABQ Journal Poll had it 48 to 41 for Herrell. Since then polls have shown the race tightening. The Emerson College poll of Oct. 24-26 had the race tied at 47%. However, the district historically leans Republican and its true colors may be starting to show in the Carroll survey.
The NRCC this week made an ad buy of over $600,000 on behalf of Herrell. That brings their total buy to $1.8 million. That’s the same amount the DCCC has spent on ads for Torres Small.
Also, this poll came after VP Pence's Roswell visit last Friday on behalf of Herrell and Pearce that generated widespread publicity. Importantly, no candidate is at the magic 50 percent mark. The race remains competitive. It is rated Lean Republican here but a Toss Up in the Cook Political Report and others. OTHER CD'S Dem Deb Haaland has been leading in all the surveys in her race against R Janice Arnold-Jones for the ABQ congressional district. In this one she scores 51% to 43% for Arnold-Jones and 3 percent for Libertarian Lloyd Princeton. The district has not gone R since the 2006 election and this poll and others say it's going to stay that way, In the northern district Dem Rep. Ben Ray Lujan has another easy re-elect, according to the survey. He is beating Republican Gerald McFall 57 to 33. A Libertarian candidate gets 4. LYONS ROARS Pat Lyons has never lost an election and it appears he has a good shot of keeping that perfect record intact, according to the survey's findings in the race for land commissioner. Republican Lyons polls at 49.1% to 44.6% for Dem Stephanie Garcia Richard. Libertarian Ricard Lucero scores 3 percent and undecided is 3.3 percent, The survey could lean a bit Republican because it weights the GOP turnout at 38.4 percent, higher than some other surveys. But it is still a sign that the media campaign from Lyons and the one by a Chevron financed super PAC are pulling him ahead. He leads narrowly in the ABQ congressional district--48-46--and in the southern district 57-37. Garcia Richard takes her home turf in the northern district 49-44. AUDITOR ANGST It's a bit too close for comfort for Dem Brian Colón but he is still positioned to beat appointed GOP State Auditor Wayne Johnson, reports the Carrol Strategies survey. Colón polls at 50% to Johnson's 45. Johnson is a former BernCo commissioner. The race is close because Johnson is running just six points back in the ABQ area and clobbering Colón by 11 points in the south but Colón carries the north by 14. HEINRICH'S HIGH The survey confirms the obvious. Senator Martin Heinrich is in his way to an easy re-election. He garners 52 percent of those polled; Republican Mick Rich gets 37. The bottom drops out in this survey for Libertarian Gary Johnson who gets only 7 percent. That may be a bit low for Johnson but otherwise the writing on the wall on this race has been there a long time. OTHER RACES Theses races have been noncompetitive from the start. The survey reports Attorney General Hector Balderas prevails over R Michael Hendricks 61-34. Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver beats Republican Gavin Clarkson 52-40 and State Treasurer Tim Eichenberg outscores R Art Castillo 52-40. A FRIENDLY R SCENARIO  We turn to one of our Senior GOP Alligators who tracks the legislative races. Let's see how much he can upset Dem House Speaker Brian Egolf as he predicts a zero gain for the Dems Tuesday night. First, we asked about that gift horse to the D's--the NW ABQ seat of GOP State Rep. Monica Youngblood. She has been trapped in a political nightmare since being busted for aggravated DWI--she refused to take the breath test--and doing a couple of days of jail time for the crime. She's gone, right? Well, the Senior Gator argues: Youngblood can still win this. She is up with a radio ad touting her unexpected endorsement from the ABQ Journal who urged a vote for her despite the DWI. Also, her Dem opponent, Karen Bash, is relying entirely in the labor PAC Patriot Majority to do the negative campaign on Youngblood. that may not be enough enough. Monica wins re-election. Ok, so far no Dem gains. What about Republican Rep. Jimmie Hall in the far ABQ NE Heights up against newcomer and Dem Melanie Stansbury? They've been attacking Jimmie hard on healthcare and women's issues. It's not an easy race. But Stansbury is an ultra-liberal and ultimately the dyed-in the wool GOP precincts will reject her. A close race? Yes. But Jimmie Hangs on. So, still no change. How about Republican Brad Winter vs. Dem Day Hochman for the swing seat being vacated by GOP State Rep/ Sarah Maestas Barnes in the NE Heights? Joe, Brad can handle this. I've been surprised Hochman hasn't hit him harder over his service on the ABQ city council and blame him more for the out of control crime. He has a ton of positive name ID from decades in politics. It's also confusing to voters that Hochman is campaigning as Day Hochman-Vigil but is listed on the ballot as just Day Hochman. I think we hold this seat. Hochman-Vigil got married after the election proclamation so she was unable to add Vigil to her name on the ballot
Ok, that's three key seats down. What about Natalie Figueroa, the Democrat who faces R John Jones for the seat being vacated by GOP Rep. Nate Gentry in the NE Heights? Our GOP Senior Alligator says: Well this is one is tough, Figueroa ran for it last time and came close and the district is moving toward the Dems. We could lose this. But that doesn't mean w will lose any seats in the House. Dem Rep. George Dodge is on the ropes on the Eastside. We think we will pick that one up to make up for a loss of the Gentry seat. As for ABQ GOP Rep. David Adkins and Las Cruces GOP Rep. Rick Little, contrary to Dem spin they are safe for the R's. NO PICKUPS? No pickups at all for the Dems? We have a good chance at breaking even. And we even have a shot at picking up one seat if all of my predictions come true. That would be the one held by ABQ Dem Liz Thomson who has a quality Republican opponent. That would make the house 37-33. So there you have it Democrats and Speaker Brian. Don't put your surf boards in the water yet to ride a blue wave. You just might suffer a bite from a Senior Alligator. THE BOTTOM LINES  Our Election Eve Special on KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.com will air live beginning at 5 p.m. Monday. Among our guests will be former GOP State Senator Diane Snyder and ABQ Journal Capitol Bureau Chief Dan Boyd. Our Election Night coverage will kick off at 6:30 p.m. Tuesday and include analysis from ABQ Dem State Rep. Moe Maestas and ABQ attorney and former city councilor and state legislator Greg Payne. I do look forward to being with you on this, our 30th consecutive year of public radio Election Night coverage. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.   (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2018 |
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