State and national environmentalists, feverishly working to elect Democrat Stephanie Garcia Richard as the next land commissioner, appear on the verge of defeat as Republican hopeful Pat Lyons, a former two term commissioner, is positioned to reclaim the office, despite a year in which Dem candidates have had the wind at their backs

The ABQ Journal's final poll released Saturday gives Lyons a three point edge. He beats Garcia Richard 45 to 42, with Libertarian Michael Lucero getting 6 percent. The survey follows one by ABQ PR firm Carrol strategies conducted October 29 that showed a similar result, with Lyons beating his Dem foe 49 to 45.

The only saving grace for Garcia Richard and the enviros is that she wins among those who have already cast their ballots. If GOP turnout, which is now accelerating, should falter in the final days she could still win. On the other hand, the two polls showing Lyons ahead could energize R's hungry for a win in a year that has been dominated by predictions of a big Dem night.

Already the long knives are out for Garcia Richard and her campaign management. Her TV commercials are routinely described by observers on the left and right as terrible and worse. Her June primary win is being dismissed as a freakish event prodded on by women voters but disconnected from the reality of the office she is seeking.

Lyons is holding Garcia Richard to a tie in the big ABQ metro. That means thousands of Dems are crossing over for him. Pat Lyons has seized the lead in two late polls in the race for land commissioner and it now goes from toss up to Lean Republican.

OTHER RACES

The Dems appear headed for easy wins in all the other down ballot statewide races. They are all above the critical 50 percent mark in the newspaper poll. Attorney General Hector Balderas has a commanding lead, Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver is polling at 51 percent; Dem State Auditor candidate Brian Colón is handily beating Republican Wayne Johnson and Dem State Treasurer Tim Eichenberg is well ahead of his GOP opponent

In the state Supreme Court contest, there is no surprise. Democrat Michael Vigil is outpacing Republican Gary Clingman 53-37.

The poll was conducted Oct. 26-Nov.1 and has margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percent.

A BIT BRUTAL

It's getting a bit brutal out there in the final hours. For example, Bernalillo County GOP Chairman Robert Aragon is claiming that if Michelle Lujan Grisham is elected Governor she has made a deal to hire Ellen Bernstein, president of the ABQ Teachers Federation as the next Secretary of Education. Aragon made the charge in an interview with ABQ radio station KIVA 95.9 FM:

That's what you can expect. Ellen Bernstein is a union thug and she will be Secretary of Education if Lujan Grisham is elected Tuesday.

Aragon is working hard to gin up the Republican base and doing some old fashioned union bashing is one way to appeal to the hearts of the GOP. MLG has not made public any possible names for her cabinet and neither has Steve Pearce.

Then there's this eyebrow raiser from ABQ GOP congressional candidate Janice Arnold-Jones. In a radio ad she calls Deb Haaland, her Democratic opponent, "DUI Deb."

That's a reference to two DWI convictions Haaland had 35 years ago. She has said the incidents put her on the path of sobriety and she no longer imbibes.

It's a sensitive subject since Haaland would be the first Native American woman elected to the US House and alcohol has historically caused considerable problems for NM Indians. But that isn't stopping Arnold-Jones from bearing down as she hopes for an upset in the contest which heavily favors Haaland.

While Janice is calling Haaland "DUI Deb," Haaland may start calling her opponent "Jittery Janice."

The two candidates were recently the subject of a ten minute video from the Guardian newspaper of London. About three minutes into the video Arnold-Jones melts down when asked for comment about a controversial quote she made. The former state representative, nicknamed "Lady Sunlight" for her record on government transparency, recoils from the questioning and denies the quote cited to her from the ABQ newspaper. She then demands that the Guardian video camera be shut down. The reporter reminded the candidate the decision to videotape is his not hers. Maybe Janice hadn't had her coffee?

The third candidate in the race is Libertarian Lloyd Princeton. He doesn't have a nickname yet. Don't worry, Lloyd. The way this thing is going you're bound to get one.

CRUCES HEAT 

Unexpectedly, it's getting heated in the Las Cruces State House race featuring House Majority Whip Doreen Gallegos and retired GOP businessman David Cheek. Gallegos has spent about $37,000 so far and Cheek $27,000. From a Gallegos mailer:

Candidate David Cheek and his political cronies are spreading false statements for political gain. Problem is the untruths hurt abused and neglected children in foster care. Have you no shame Mr. Cheek?

For 13 years Gallegos has been the Executive Director of Mesilla Valley CASA, a local nonprofit that advocates for abused and neglected children. She says the mailer was prompted in part by Cheek misrepresenting her salary. The race is not considered to be in play by either party.

ON THE ROAD 

This last Saturday of Campaign '18 will find the Guv candidates busy on the trail. MLG  is making stops with Senator Heinrich, including a matanza with Congressman Ben Ray Lujan on the Plaza at Socorro at 11:30 a.m. Steve Pearce continues his "Jobs Now Tour" and his hunt for Democratic votes with a stop in the ABQ South Valley. At 3:30 p.m. he'll be at Bernalillo Motors and Towing on Coors Blvd.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2018