Sunday, November 04, 2018Lujan Grisham with Double Digit Lead Over Pearce In The Final Journal Survey; Herrell And Torres Small Neck And Neck; Details And Analysis Up Next The poll released Sunday reinforces what you've known for weeks. The race between Republican Yvette Herrell and Xochitl Torres Small is tight--now 46-45--with Herrell leading in the Journal survey. And the race for Governor presents special challenges to Republican Steve Pearce who trails Dem Michelle Lujan Grisham 53-43. The good news for Herrell is that Torres Small has been behind in both the Journal survey and the Carroll Strategies poll that showed Herrell ahead by five points. The bad news is that she has not been able to close the deal in the conservative southern district as the Dems pump millions in there. Herrell's leads big on the conservative Eastside of the sprawling district and Torres Small has a large lead in the more moderate Las Cruces area. There is a bit of a caveat. Pollster Brian Sanderoff changed his methodology in his final poll. In his first survey he measured the support of only "proven, likely voters" from 2014 and 2016. In this survey he has included newly registered respondents who did not vote in 2014 and 2016 but described themselves as "very likely" to vote in the election. That stands to improve the standing of Torres Small as well as MLG. Will they end up voting is the question. Still the GOP faces national headwinds. And Torres Small is positioned to take advantage if they continue to blow through Election Day. Her problem is that turn out in the Las Cruces area appears to be faltering after an initial burst. The southern congressional race is rated Lean Republican. The ten point lead by MLG over Pearce is substantial. She gets 55 percent in the ABQ metro and carries women with 59 percent. We don't expect her to prevail by quite that 10 point margin on Election Night and see the late breaking vote being dominated by the R's and going to Pearce. And while the Carroll survey was overweighted towards the R's this one may be a bit overweighted toward the Dems. But that's inside baseball. Both surveys have MLG ahead--one by five the other by ten. She couldn't be happier and Pearce could not be more disappointed. The race for governor rating changes. It goes from lean Democrat to Likely Democrat. In the ABQ congressional race Dem Deb Haaland garners 50 percent in the survey to 38 percent for Republican Janice Arnold-Jones and 5 percent for Libertarian Lloyd Princeton. The district long ago went blue so the numbers are in line with expectations. ON THE TRAIL Sen. Heinrich and MLG continue their final days tour of the state today, along with others on the Dem ticket. They will start the day in Gallup and then head to stops in Farmington, Taos, Española and Los Alamos. They will end the day with a 6 p.m rally in Las Vegas. Steve Pearce continues his Jobs Tour in the ABQ metro today. He'll be inCedar Crest at 2 p.m., head to Moriarty for a meet and greet at 3:30 and finish up 5:30 with another meet and greet in Rio Rancho. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.   (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2018 |
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