A Friday blog?! Hey kids, we're here to serve.

Well, I do feel the ghostly breath of Bruce King, Dave Cargo and Ernie Mills on my neck so blog I must on these final days of the campaign. Let's go. . .

The labor PAC Patriot Majority spent nearly $1 million on ads of all sorts for the Dem legislative candidates and others in the past month, according to the latest money reports filed with the state Thursday. If they can't take out ABQ GOP Rep. Monica Youngblood with that kind of money--convicted and jailed for aggravated DWI--Dems might start calling them Patriot Minority.

By the way, guess who's handling the media for Monica? That's easy. Jay McCleskey, Gov. Martinez's political manager. Hey, maybe Susana will publicly endorse Monica? Uh. Probably not. But she hasn't said a word about her BFF's legal problems.

Meanwhile, Dem Michelle Lujan Grisham has raised $9.3 million for her Guv run since starting out nearly two years ago. She reports spending close to $2 million this past month and raising more than $1.5 million. She had $373,000 in cash on October 30.

Republican Guv candidate Steve Pearce spent $1.56 million over the last month and raised $431,000. He had $123,000 on hand for the final hours.

Both candidates can do us favor: Please don't buy any more TV ads with the dough you have left. We think you've got it covered.

CRAZY MONEY

Friends, it's a no limit poker game. We're talking crazy money, people. From Oxford at the New Mex:

Wow. New Mexico Strong, a super PAC funded by the oil industry, spent nearly $1.9M over the last month, most of it to support Republican Pat Lyons for land commissioner. It's also helping a few GOP state House members.

CVNM Verde Voters reports spending more than $847K over the last month. It's been backing Democrat Stephanie Garcia Richard in the race for land commissioner.

Is this a political campaign or the World Series of Poker?

WHO WON OCTOBER?

If you're a regular around here you know we have been scoring each campaign month in the Governor's race for either Dem Michelle Lujan Grisham or Republican Steve Pearce. We had MLG winning June, Pearce taking July and August and MLG taking September. So who won October? Drum roll, please. . . .

Neither campaign collapsed in October and the race was still not closed out as the trick or treaters devoured their candy. The debates were draws, both received newspaper endorsements they could brag about and neither succumbed to their opponent's TV corruption ads. But October goes to Lujan Grisham because she made it through the month continuing to nurse a polling lead and with having a broader path to victory.

That narrower path for a Pearce win forces him to look for a big boost from rural voters. Possible but not easy. In October, MLG's easier path to victory remain unblocked--take BernCo by a big margin, combine it with landslides in Taos and Santa Fe Counties and a healthy score in Dona Ana. The most recent poll shows Pearce with a chance of getting it closer than she wants in BernCo so we will watch that closely Election Night.

There is still one month to rate--or at least part of a month. November will decide the matter. The clock is about to run out on Election '18.

FINAL STRETCH ADS

The Guv candidates are putting up final spots as early voting ends Saturday and Election Day is set for Tuesday. Both candidates are tugging at the heartstrings of voters in their last pitches.

In this 60 second ad Pearce features ABQ mother Mary Candelaria whose teenage son Adrian was murdered in 2016. She asserts that MLG supports automatic parole after thirty years for convicted murderers and that she needs to "put families first, not criminals." The MLG camp disputes that parole position.

For her part, Lujan Grisham aims one of her last efforts at women--who support her in large numbers. Her campaign says:

"Zander"is  a thirty-second web ad that tells the story of baby Zander Gurulé. Michelle this year worked tirelessly to ensure that Zander was able to get the lifesaving surgery he needed. Zander’s mother Krystal testifies: “He’s alive because of Michelle. Imagine what she could do as governor.”

THEN THERE WERE NONE

Every national media outlet that assigns ratings to congressional races now has the southern NM congressional district contest between Republican Yvette Herrell and Democrat Xochitl Torres Small rated a toss up. Nathan Gonzales of Inside Elections had the race ranked "tilt Republican" but now has joined the toss up column. We asked him why:

Republicans I’ve talked to are increasingly less confident. Even though it’s close, they don’t like the trend nor the dynamic of having the non-Hispanic candidate in the race. 

We are keeping our rating of Lean Republican, the last of the Mohicans so to speak. That's because of the first ABQ Journal September poll showing Torres Small trailing by 7, this Monday's Carroll Strategies landline poll showing Herrell ahead by 5 (although that poll leaned a bit R), the historic trend of the district to vote for the conservative candidate regardless of the political environment and the fact that the Dems are not releasing their internal polling to tout the race as a true toss up.

We're not predicting. Lean R doesn't mean we think Torres Small will lose. Far from it. But unlike the DC pundits we don't see the race as an even money bet.

A day after it released its poll showing a 5 point lead for Herrell KOB-TV took to the campaign trail to interview the candidates, pointing out how tight the race is but never mentioning its own poll showing Herrell opening up a lead. In fact, they had their anchor quote another poll saying the race was only separated by one point. But what about their own survey that showed it at five? The Alligators are watching, newsroom. . .

ON THE TRAIL

Here's some Kellyanne Conway coverage from her Halloween visit to Ruidoso to support southern congressional Hopeful Yvette Herrell. Guv candidate Steve Pearce was also on hand for the event. . . No one should accuse Dem Torres Small of laying back. She is all across the huge congressional district in the final days, from Artesia to Belen and points in between. If you need a restaurant tip for a local town, she is sure to have one.

COMING FROM BEHIND

Johnson and Colón

Appointed State Auditor Wayne Johnson is trying to make something happen in the final hours. He's grasped on to that Carroll Strategies poll released by KOB-TV Wednesday that shows him trailing Dem Brian Colón 50 to 45, not an insurmountable margin but still a tough climb. His campaign says:

Since the first poll in June by Carroll Strategies, Johnson has gone from 38.5% to 45.3%--growth of nearly 7%. In contrast, his opponent achieved no growth despite starting television ads nine days earlier than Johnson . . Colón’s growth is non-existent. He went from 49.7% in June to 50.1% in late October. . . Johnson is fighting waste, fraud, and abuse. . . His opponent, however, has a record of failure and incompetence and he can’t shake his ties to Bill Richardson’s shadowy dark money scheme. Wayne Johnson is the far superior choice to be our state’s watchdog.

Johnson is a former BernCo commissioner who ran for ABQ mayor last year. He has high name ID in the metro that's keeping him hanging around but no R has been elected auditor since the 60's.

It could be too little too late but Johnson comes with some TV to close out his campaign against Colón. He takes a bite out of the former NM Dem Party Chairman by essentially labeling him a political hack. But in the same 30 second spot the former BernCo Commissioner touts his service as auditor. It's a tight squeeze which is what you get in a low-budget, down ballot race. The Auditor's race is rated Likely Democrat.

BEN RAY'S DAYS

After Dan Sena, a top aide to NM Dem Rep. Ben Ray Lujan who is chair of the Dem Congressional Campaign Committee, predicted that the Dems might take back control of the US House by only two votes, we wondered if that would be good enough for Ben Ray to avoid getting dunked in the Potomac. After all, that narrow of a majority could cause problems in getting legislation passed, Steve Fitzer, another top aide to Lujan, comes with the response:

I saw your comments on what Dan Sena said about winning back the House and if Democrats do it by a seat or two would that be a win for Ben Ray. To do that it would be a net of 25 seats, winning in several districts that have long been held by Republicans. As a note, the last time Democrats took control of the House we won 30 seats. 

Also, I will point out that Democrats have the largest battlefield in history with 111 seats and have raised record amounts at both the DCCC and by the candidates. Ben Ray has helped put New Mexico back on the map again at the national level in politics, where we have not been for the last 8 years. And have no doubt no matter how slim the margin, Democrats will be very happy to be back in control of the House.

If the Dems do take back the House it will  be interesting to see how much credit Ben Ray gets. Remember, as JFK once said: "Victory has a thousand fathers but defeat is an orphan."

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2018