And here we are. Finally. A too long and way too expensive Campaign '18 is about to be put to bed by the voters and make its way into the history books. We'll have our final take on it today on our Election Eve Special at 5 p.m. on KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.com. More on that below, but now it's time to head out to the trail one last time before polls open tomorrow for Election Day voting.

By golly, Mr. and Mrs New Mexico, you sure like to vote early these days. The final early turnout hit a whopping 430,796, reports the SOS.

Dems - 223,122 (51.8%) Republicans - 146,637 (34.0%) Libertarians - 2,392 (0.6%) Declined to state (independent) - 56,306 (13.1%) Other - 2,339 (0.5%)

And we still have the actual Election Day to go. So does this mean we are going to have some crazy high turnout number when all is said and done? Maybe not, but it could be higher than most expected. If 65 percent of the voters have voted early--as occurred in the 2016 presidential election--total turnout would be around 660,000. That fits with the forecasts. However, if we get a voter surge tomorrow and that early vote is a much lower percentage of the total vote, turnout will be extra high and could be a boost for the Democratic candidates.

Early voting continues to grow in popularity each cycle. In the 2014 midterm 52 percent voted early. We will land higher tomorrow but noone is certain how much.

SANDEROFF SAYS

Pollster Brian Sanderoff told us this Sunday night about the early vote:

Democrats came out of the early voting gate with tremendous enthusiasm and large numbers. As the days and weeks passed, Republicans’ rate of early voting caught up to the Democrats. In the end, 38.6% of Democrats voted early and 38.3% registered Republicans voted early. But, since there are a lot more registered Democrats than registered Republicans in the state, we ended up with a lot more Democrats voting early than Republicans.

In 2014, 48.5% of the early voters were Democrats compared to 40.1% who were Republican. In 2018, it was 51.8% to 34.0%, which is a big difference and is significant since so many people voted early.

OFF TO THE RACES

XOCHITL TORRES SMALL--If she wins the southern congressional race tomorrow she's here to stay and if she loses she's still here to stay, report our Dem insiders. The investment in her is a four year plan. If she can't take the prize tomorrow night, she will immediately begin campaigning for the seat in the  presidential election year of 2020. That was the idea behind the Rocky Lara candidacy in 2012 but she suffered a landslide defeat at the hands of Rep. Pearce--64-36--and her political career was over.

If Torres Small should falter in the final stretch it appears it won't be my much. That makes another try in two years more of sure thing. It could be easier, too.  A presidential election year has higher turnout.

YVETTE HERRELL--There's much more riding on this election for Herrell than for Torres Small. Lose and she's done politically but more important, a Herrell loss would be devastating to the New Mexico Republican Party. It would mean an all Democratic congressional delegation (assuming Dem victories in the ABQ and northern districts) and no apparent leader to begin rebuilding the state GOP.

The race is tight--46-45--in the final ABQ Journal poll which we covered on a special Sunday blog you can find below, We have it Lean Republican. After reporting that all the national pundits have it a toss up, we did find the Politico rating that now also has it Lean R. (On Monday in its final ranking the Politico shifted the race back to Toss Up.)

Dona Ana County and its increasing Democratic hue is the big story for this congressional district. It could begin to dominate the voting in the years ahead and dilute the conservative Eastside. That's similar to what has happened with Bernalillo County on the state level. BernCo votes so blue that it overwhelms many of the votes in rural New Mexico.

The state's cities are hardening for the Democrats--Las Cruces, ABQ and Santa Fe. The GOP must learn to somehow pick that lock or they could be in for a long spell of hibernation similar to what they endured in the 60's and 70's.

CHEROKEE NATION

Deb Haaland makes the claim that she would be the first Native American woman elected to the US House, but what about Yvette Herrell? It turns out she's an enrolled member of the Cherokee Nation based in Oklahoma. The late news about her lineage just trickled out because Herrell hasn't made a fuss about it nor has she outlined her family tree to show her heritage.

Then there is Sharice Davids, a native American woman who is running for the US House in Kansas. What if all three get elected tomorrow? Who gets the bragging rights as the first? Guess they can draw straws.

NEW GUV SOON

MICHELLE LUJAN GRISHAM--Is it all over but the counting in the gubernatorial race? Lujan Grisham sports a ten point lead in the Journal poll (53-43) over Republican Steve Pearce. She had a 5 point lead in the Oct. 29 Carroll Strategies survey. That's an average lead of 7.5.

Given the backdrop of the state MLG might be yearning for a landslide but that does not appear in the making. A big win, however, does seem only hours away.

The MLG camp has quietly started the transition process. One possible problem? Finding high quality cabinet secretaries. The Dem bench is not jammed with talent. That's something ABQ Mayor Keller found out when he took office and ended up hiring many old hands from years past.

STEVE PEARCE--His deep conservative stripes are not something you can wash away like a temporary tattoo. They are part of his skin. That is why Pearce appears to be in for an Election Night let down. He tried to be moderate but voters--especially Democrats--did not buy what was an excellent marketing pitch. The Pearce brand was built up over decades. That's hard to change in a couple of months. The Journal poll reveals that Lujan Grisham has the support of 19% of self-reported conservatives, whereas Steve Pearce has the support of only 6% of the liberals.

If Herrell wins Pearce's wing of the party will be around to play. If not, it will be anyone's game.

Pearce has one public event on his schedule today. It's at 12:00 PM--a final Albuquerque GOTV event at his campaign headquarters at 4700 Montgomery NE.

MLG also has one public appearance scheduled. At 6 p.m. she rallies in ABQ with Senator Heinrich and most of the Dem ticket at the Alamosa Community Center at 6900 Gonzales Road SW.

The final rally geography is fitting. Pearce needs a strong showing with Republicans in the far NE Heights. MLG wants more Hispanic Valley Dems to show up at the polls.

SENATE SNOOZE

We didn't carry the final US Senate poll from the Journal on our special Sunday blog. How could we forget? Well, pretty easily. This has been a snoozer. The news--if you an call that--is that Republican Mick Rich is very likely going to finish in second place, sparing the GOP a major embarrassment. Former Gov. Gary Johnson, the Libertarian nominee, is polling third. The poll results are Sen. Martin Heinrich 51, Rich 31 and Johnson 12.

WHO WILL LAND SOFTLY?

The race for state land commissioner is one of the more intriguing contests. Dem Stephanie Garcia Richard would be the first woman to hold the office in history and if Republican Pat Lyons were to win it would be for the third time after serving two terms earlier this century.

The race has gone Lean Republican here because of the recent polling showing Lyons ahead and holding on in big BernCo but Dem analyst Greg Payne sees it ultimately falling to Garcia Richard:

It will be close, but remember how women came to her side in the June primary when she upset the field. I see that happening again. 

Expect this one to be a nail biter. You'll hear all the action tomorrow night on KANW when we call that race and all the others.

THE STATE HOUSE


MONICA YOUNGBLOOD---The race appears surprisingly tight, according to both D and R sources. The ABQ NW GOP state legislator had a nightmarish DWI arrest in May and even served a day or so in jail. Her political career is teetering but some of the Dems think the attacks on the issue may have been too cute, leaving the door open for her against Dem challenger Karen Bash. Another fun one to watch tomorrow.

If Youngblood hangs on it would be a blow to the Dems who are working to expand their 38 to 32 majority in the lower chamber. Analysts are getting more conservative as Election Day looms.

Some of them now see Republican Brad Winter hanging on in his bid to replace fellow R Sarah Maestas Barnes in an ABQ NE Heights seat. He has decades of name ID and the hits on him from the Dem Day Hochman-Vigil camp don't seem to have been particularly special.

Also, Republican Rep. Jimmie Hall is seen as still having at least a fighting chance despite a deluge of Dem money and mail that hit his far NE Heights district. (An example is posted. Click to enlarge).

The issue is will older Democrats crossover to keep him because they are unsure of newcomer Melanie Stansbury, a high quality candidate but who does not have as deep of ties to the district as Hall. If Hall manages to pull it out, R insiders expect it will be his last term and that he will not seek re-election to the rapidly changing district in 2020.

Anyway, that's what we hear on these very difficult to call House races. For sure there will be surprises tomorrow might.

ELECTION EVE SPECIAL 

Join us for our traditional Election Eve Special today at 5 p.m. on KANW 89.1 FM in ABQ/Santa Fe and at kanw.com. This marks our 30th year of bringing you election coverage on public radio and there will be pretty of thrills and spills again this year.

My guest experts for the rundown of the campaigns and some fun predictions today are: former ABQ GOP State Senator Diane Snyder, ABQ attorney and longtime consultant Greg Payne; Dem consultant Sisto Abeyta; ABQ Dem State Rep. Moe Maestas and a real, live journalist, Dan Boyd, capitol bureau chief of the ABQ Journal. He'll keep that bunch honest.

OUT AND ABOUT

We'll finish our Election Eve broadcast tonight and get ready for Election Night coverage tomorrow night starting at 6:30. We'll stay on the air for as long as the major races are undecided and if election officials are still counting votes.

On Wednesday we'll have a complete wrap of the results along with expert analysis right here at NM Politics with Joe Monahan.

On Thursday we'll do an election post-mortem for the ABQ area League of Women Voters at their luncheon at the Embassy Suites Hotel.

On Sunday Nov. 11 at 11 a.m. we'll be back at it, running down results and fielding questions before Journey Santa Fe at Collective Works Bookstore and Coffeehouse.

A tip of the hat to the media outlets that had us dissecting the political scene this campaign season. They include the New York Times; Energy News Today; Baffler.com; KUNM-FM in ABQ; KSFR-FM and KVSF-FM Santa Fe; ABQ's KKOB 770 AM and KIVA-AM-FM and KWES-FM in Ruidoso.

Now it's on to the Grand Finale.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2018