Democrats who were nervous that their party and its allies would not mount an effective offensive against ABQ GOP State Rep. Monica Youngblood can put down their worry beads,

As you can see from the hit piece exclusively posted here, the Dems are in full offense and it appears unlikely that Youngblood, arrested for aggravated DWI and who Monday reported for her day in jail sentence, will be able to hold the seat for the GOP.

The hit lit is paid for by the Patriot Majority PAC, funded mainly by labor groups. It relieves Democrat Karen Bash, Youngblood's challenger, from having to do the dirty work herself and freeing her to run a positive campaign above the fray.

The money line in the hit piece declares:

If you refuse to follow our laws. . . you shouldn't write our laws. 

That's a reference to Youngblood's DWI and her refusal to take the breath test when she was stopped in May for driving drunk.

The police lapel camera video that followed was devastating and humiliating, showing the 42 year old NW ABQ lawmaker pleading with the arresting officer in an apparent effort to avoid being arrested. She also reminded him that she helps police officers in her role as a legislator. The attorney general began a review to determine if that statement violated the Governmental Conduct Act.

Youngblood is a BFF of GOP Governor Susan Martinez. However, the media has not asked the Governor what she thinks of her ally's arrest, an ally who repeatedly sponsored tough on DWI laws in Santa Fe and which were backed by Martinez.

It's not always the crime that causes the political stumble, it's the hypocrisy. And in this case all it took is one hit piece to make that perfectly clear.

HOW MANY?

There was very little chance that the state GOP was going to prevent a loss of state House seats this cycle but with Youngblood down and out the chance of them not suffering an overall loss of at least two seats seems remote. The Youngblood loss will be a gift. The GOP oriented district was never on their target list. The state House is currently divided 38 to 32 in favor of the Dems. House Speaker Brian Egolf tells us he believes the Democrats will pick uo two to seven House seats in the November balloting.

HARD TO BEAT

Turn the clock back a dozen years and Republican Janice Arnold-Jones might be in a dead heat for the ABQ area congressional seat, but the district has moved so far to the left since then that last night's televised debate between the three candidates seemed like going through the motions.

Arnold-Jones, a political veteran who was the GOP nominee for the seat in 2012 and who served in the state House and on the ABQ city council, is more than comfortable on the little screen. In the face-off on KOB-TV she showed depth and political acumen. But with the national GOP not contesting the seat, Dem nominee Deb Haaland just had to avoid any embarrassing moments and she did. That Haaland will take the prize has been somewhat of a foregone conclusion since she won the hotly contested June primary. Libertarian Lloyd Princeton is also on the ballot.

One interesting note. Haaland, who would be the first Native American woman to serve in the U.S House, told viewers that, if elected, she would pursue a seat on the conservative House Armed Services Committee in order to keep an eye out for ABQ's Kirtland Air Force Base and Sandia National Labs.

It struck us that some of Haaland's not too distant ancestors were probably among those who fought an invading US military on New Mexico soil in the 19th century. And there she stood last night, a very liberal Haaland of Laguna Pueblo promising to defend the military establishment of today.

The historic Haaland candidacy is transcendent, going beyond the politics of the day or even Haaland's own individuality. Janice Arnold-Jones can win a debate but it's asking too much of her to beat that.

THE MONEY RACE

With millions being spent by outside groups on the southern congressional race, the cash advantage that Dem congressional hopeful Xochitl Torres Small posted Monday over Republican hopeful and State Rep. Yvette Herrell may not be as significant as it may have been in past years.

As we blogged Monday Torres Small, riding national Dem enthusiasm, had a record-breaking June-September quarter by raising $1.9 million, the most ever for a NM congressional race. Torres Small has a major ally for money and other needs in NM Congressman Ben Ray Lujan, the chairman of the Dem Congressional Campaign Committee from which the money flows. She ended September with $1.1 million in cash.

Herrell raised $564,000 and reported $419,000 in cash on hand. But if her campaign is concerned about the shortfall it could be made up by national GOP interests.

The southern race is ranked Lean Republican here, although some DC raters--including the Cook Report--call it a Toss Up.

UNDER 500?

Dems are increasingly hopeful about the southern race but not bursting with confidence. A top Dem operative with insider knowledge thinks Torres Small will win with one of the tightest margins ever in a state congressional race--less than 500 votes.

We asked Dem veteran political consultant, attorney and former ABQ City Councilor Greg Payne for his take:

I think Herrell will hold on. The Torres Small gun ad was the one with the most public perception but Herrell answered it effectively. Also, I am not seeing a blue wave that will seep into the conservative district. It's more like a ripple.

We'll see which way it goes on Election Night when Payne and other experts join us for Election Night coverage on ABQ's KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.com.

SURPLUS BONANZA

Reader Richard Flores writes of what state House Speaker Brian Egolf told us could be a state surplus that approaches $2 billion for the current budget year:

Public education should be our top priority, and teacher salaries should top the list of spending appropriations. Teachers have earned and should get a substantial raise independent of anything else on the spending list. This is a golden opportunity for legislators to do the right thing for our state and our children.

MORE MONEY RACE

Deb Haaland says she raised about $605,000 in the third quarter and has about $417,000 in cash for the final month. Republican Arnold-Jones reported about $138,000 in contributions and has about $44,000 in cash. That means no TV buy of significance for her. Libertarian Lloyd Princeton reported $800 in cash on hand.

The ABQ congressional race is rated Safe Democrat.

In the Senate chase, Libertarian Gary Johnson reported raising only $235,000 by the end of September and had $64,000 in cash. Johnson did not get into the race until mid-August but supporters claimed that he could raise a million or more right off the bat. It didn't happen and Johnson is relying on a PAC associated with his political consultant to come with more money.

Senator Martin Heinrich reports $2.3 million in cash on hand September 30 after spending $2.5 million in the quarter in which he raised $911,000.

Republican Mick Rich has bombed in the fund-raising department. He says he raised  $133,000 from July through September, spent $173,000 and ended with about $158,000 in cash. He has enough for a small end of campaign TV buy, but barely.

The US Senate race is rated Safe Democrat.

DIEGO ZAMORA DIES

Diego Zamora, the Santa Fe attorney suffering from pancreatic cancer who cut a TV spot defending Michelle Lujan Grisham from attacks about her role in the state's high risk insurance pool, has died.

 In the ad he explained how MLG's Delta Consulting had help him acquire health insurance. The campaign of GOP Guv contender Steve Pearce struck back with an ad that pointed out controversies in Zamora's past. That in turn drew an ad from MLG's camp that called the Pearce ad attacking Zamora "reprehensible." All the ads are posted here. Diego Zamora was the brother of well-known Santa Fe attorney Geno Zamora. Lujan Grisham said:

I was heartbroken to learn that Diego Zamora passed away. . .  Diego was a true fighter. . . and each challenge he overcame only made him stronger. His compassion and strength defined him, especially in the face of adversity. He will truly be missed.

Diego Zamora was 60.

The race for Governor continues tonight at 6 P.M. when Lujan Grisham and Pearce meet in the second of three televised debates. The one hour broadcast will be aired on KOB-TV.