At the beginning of the campaign they teased that there would be something new, perhaps something shocking, but instead of an October surprise Steve Pearce's camp is providing a predictable dish that will bolster his already strong GOP support but may do little to break down the Democratic brick wall in big Bernalillo County that Democrats are relying on to propel Michelle Lujan Grisham into the governorship.

The dish Pearce serves up in his his latest TV ad is Republican comfort food, painting Lujan Grisham's past government service as riddled with corruption and inextricably tied to the corruption tinged years of former Dem Governor Bill Richardson. That was a recipe for GOP success in 2010 when Richardson was still in office and Susana Martinez easily surfed to victory on the wave of scandal. But that was then and this is now.

One problem with the ad is that Richardson doesn't ring the emotional bells he once did. He seems a somewhat distant memory. Perhaps the Pearce polling says otherwise. But after eight years of Governor Martinez the years of Big Bill, when the state and city were on the move, appear to be a high point not a nadir.

The ad relies on controversies while Lujan Grisham presided as Secretary of Health under Big Bill and again cites MLG's involvement with the healthcare firm Delta Consulting that has become the centerpiece in the Pearce effort to cast doubt on her integrity. Large photos of Bill are displayed during the ad (but none of them with MLG) as if it were his name on the gubernatorial ballot.

That worked when he was fresh in the memories of New Mexicans and his approval rating crashed to 33 percent. Voters craved a chance to rebuke him. But since those bad old days MLG has been elected to the BernCo County Commission and three times to the US Congress. Most of the charges--serious as they are--have been vetted (except Delta) in previous campaigns. The electorate is not going to be jolted unless Pearce comes with something new--a true October surprise that was teased but so far has not been delivered.

BILL'S CRONIES

The Pearce ad features four faces who are dubbed "Richardson's cronies" and who the ad says will make a corrupt comeback under Lujan Grisham. While the public at large has no idea who they are the political community is quite acquainted with these four horsemen of the GOP apocalypse. The ad dubs them the  "Richardson Gang" and says they are "behind Grisham's campaign." Here they are:

Gilbert Gallegos served as communications director and deputy chief of staff to Big Bill. He later found work with Rep. Lujan Grisham but left her staff to join the ABQ police department and is not working with her campaign today. Oldtimers will remember Gallegos as a political reporter for the now gone but not forgotten ABQ Tribune.

Bill and Contarino

Dave Contarino was a key member of Bill's inner circle, serving as his political adviser and chief of staff. The ad is on more solid ground pinpointing him as being involved with Lujan Grisham. The campaign confirms he worked for her as a paid consultant in the primary but is not now working for her in a paid position. However, it is well known in political circles that Contarino is indeed involved in the campaign, if not on a paid basis. To that the R's yell: "We told you so!"

Deborah Armstrong is a former cabinet secretary and currently an ABQ Dem state rep who is a BFF of MLG. She served as director of Rep. Lujan's district offices. Together they founded Delta Consulting to provide insurance for high risk patients and won state contracts. Armstrong, an attorney, served as MLG's campaign treasurer but was recently replaced after the Delta story broke. Like Contarino she has influence with the candidate.

Johnny Cope is a Hobbs oilman who made millions and then became a kingmaker in state Dem politics by forming close ties with Big Bill. He donated major dollars to Bill and other Dems and became head of the state Transportation Commission under Richardson. Cope is a colorful figure with a colorful past who has brushed up against he law. A full accounting is here. Cope is not employed by the Lujan Grisham campaign. His name just surfaced, however, as controversy erupted over the selection of a company to run the state's final racino. Take a look:

The chairman of the New Mexico Racing Commission has owned racehorses with two partners in a company that is competing before the commission for a license for the state’s sixth racetrack and slot machine casino. According to a national database of racehorse ownership, Ray Willis, a Roswell oilman who has been on the Racing Commission since 2006, has owned horses with Shaun Hubbard and Johnny Cope, investors in a company proposing a track and casino in the Clovis area. Cope, who made a fortune in oil field-related businesses, served as chairman of the state Transportation Commission under Gov. Bill Richardson.

The Hubbard racing family have been donors to Governor Martinez.

TRAIL DUST

In other news of La Politica this Columbus Day, Libertarian US Senate nominee Gary Johnson is finally getting some air support. It comes from a PAC that supports Libertarians. The TV ad positions Johnson as a fiscal conservative who says while he served eight yeas as NM Governor "our state flourished" and that he prevented "reckless spending," leaving the state with a surplus. Johnson has been polling third behind Dem Senator Martin Heinrich and Republican Mick Rich. The race is now for second, with Johnson threatening to upend major party candidate Rich for the honor who has yet to air TV ads.

YVETTTE VS. XOCHITL

This one keeps hopping. The latest is an internal poll from southern GOP congressional contender Yvette Herrell. It shows her prevailing over Dem rival Xochitl Torres Small by a margin of 49 to 45. Here's more:

Herrell led 49 percent to 45 percent, within the margin of error and 6 percent still undecided, according to a telephone survey of 400 likely voters from The Tarrance Group. The poll was conducted September 30 through October 2 and had a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points. Both candidates are gaining name awareness, with over 50 percent of likely voters saying they knew both of them, according to the poll. Herrell led among that group 51 percent to 44 percent.

Herrell was ahead 48 to 41 in the Sept 7-13 ABQ Journal poll. The Tarrance survey comes after the national Dems have pounded Herrell for weeks over an ethics charge. She has not responded to that ad and this survey may tell us why--it does not seem to be doing much damage.

Torres Small came with a clever ad last week that earned national attention. It showed her out shooting as she positions herself toward the center in the conservative district, but the Herrell camp has some fun with that ad by using the video of Xochitl with her gun against her. In this spot titled "Don't Give Her A Shot," they fire away:

Torress Small has our freedom in her sights. . . bankrolled by liberal extremists. . .Torres Small has gone hunting for Nancy Pelosi's support and they'll shoot down our values together. . .

Herrell is the NRA endorsed candidate and isn't about to let Torres Small poach on her territory. Her ad also notes that Herrell has been endorsed by GOP Congressman Pearce who is expected to run strong in the Guv race in his home district.

The Tarrance firm also polls for Pearce. That they have not released their latest polling on the Guv race tells you what you already know--Lujan Grisham continues to lead.

THE BOTTOM LINES

In a first draft of the Thursday blog we had appointed GOP NM Supreme Court Justice Gary Clingman voting not to allow the Secretary of State to reinstate straight ticket party voting. Actually, Clingman recused himself from the case because he is running for election this year. Straight ticket voting was unanimously rejected by the other high court justices. Clingman faces NM Court of Appeals Judge Michael Vigil in the November election.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2018