A blue wave or just a ripple? A Republican surge? Those are important questions of Campaign '18 but with less than two weeks to go uncertainty lingers on what the final electorate will look like that will ultimately decide the key races.

Through Monday the Secretary of State reports over 119,000 early votes have been cast, with Dems outperforming. So far, this election's early turnout is higher than that in the '14 mid-term. That could mean an increased overall turnout will result or simply that more people like to vote early and no big turnout pop results.

Brian Sanderoff, the state's leading pollster, is among those still wary of jumping to conclusions:

It's a good start for the Democrats, but it's still too early to tell the significance of all this. But come Election Day we'll start seeing some more Republicans voting who are perhaps less enthusiastic, it will be up the Republican Party to really get a lot of their voters out on Election Day.

Getting a registered Republican to vote is about as difficult as getting a 10 year old out the door on Halloween to collect the candy. They love to vote.

If the turnout in the Governor's race is 625,000 the 119,000 early votes cast so far would mean over 19 percent of the total vote is now in.

Sanderoff's final ABQ Journal poll on the state races will be out Sunday.

UPSIDE DOWN

The endorsements are upside down in the gubernatorial race. First you get a bunch of Republican lawmen endorsing Dem Michelle Lujan Grisham. Now Republican Steve Pearce comes with what is normally a Dem prize---the endorsement of the ABQ Police Officers Association (APOA).

The union, which endorsed liberal Dem Tim Keller in the '17 ABQ mayoral race, was not very specific about its surprise endorsement, saying:

New Mexico and the APO need leadership and guidance that we can be proud of. For that reason we feel you (Pearce) represent what is best for our community and the members we proudly serve. 

Pearce, trying to avoid a MLG landslide in her BernCo home, is using the city's crime wave as his point of entry. He called the APOA endorsement "huge" and "another sign of our building momentum."

No doubt it was a blow to MLG on her home turf. But the decision was a head scratcher to Diego Arnecon, president of the International Association of Firefighters Local 244 in ABQ which has endorsed Lujan Grisham:

I'm a bit confused by the endorsement from my friends at APOA. Michelle is tough, has a detailed plan to fight crime and would be the most supportive Governor of public safety personnel that New Mexico has had in decades. Pearce simply pales by comparison. 

Insiders think that the APOA endorsement may have been a backlash against Mayor Keller and his recent hiring of former US Attorney Damon Martinez as a policy consultant, as well as other hires he has made at APD. Also, veteran city politics watcher Pete Dinelli says MLG is seen as more of an advocate for police reform than Pearce.

As US attorney Martinez was involved in the DOJ reform agreement governing the department. And there is a long history of  power struggles between the police union and the 11th Floor.

PROGRESSIVE BACKING

For her part Lujan Grisham, who disappointed progressives in her party in a July interview, is working to bring them back home in the final days. She rolled out an endorsement from progressive icon and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren who mentioned clean energy and gun violence as two reasons to vote for MLG.

SAVE THE CHILDREN ADS

$400,000 in two weeks. That's how much Save the Children Action Network will spend on NM TV ads supporting expanded early childhood education and the Guv candidacy of Michelle Lujan Grisham. The Dem Guv nominee supports a constitutional amendment that would tap a small portion of the state's $18 billion Land Grant Permanent Fund for early childhood education. Republican hopeful Steve Pearce is opposed.

PENCE PARTY

VP Pence will be in Roswell for mere hours Friday for a 3 p.m. rally at the airport, but that doesn't mean the Pearce campaign won't raise thousands of dollars from his appearance. How? They'll do a quickie photo and VIP reception with Pence at the hangar where Pence will speak. The price for getting a pic of you and your guest to place on the mantel of your Republican fireplace? How about $3,000?

And here's something from our "Did you Know?" category. Did you know that if either Pearce or Lujan Grisham are elected the state will have its oldest first term governor since before WWII?

The subject comes up because MLG will celebrate her 59th Thursday with a fund-raising and birthday party thrown by supporters at ABQ's El Pinto restaurant. (Her birthday is actually today).

At 71, Pearce would be the oldest first term governor in state history. At 59, MLG would be the oldest since before WWII. But neither candidate's age is an issue in this era of increased longevity. After all, president Trump is 72 and seeking re-election. But the candidate's ages could have an impact on turnout among younger voters who might get more excited about someone from their own generation running. We saw that in the  turnout spike when 40 year old Tim Keller was elected ABQ mayor last year.

LYONS VS. RICHARD

The liberal editorial pages of the Santa Fe New Mexican are usually reliably Democratic, but not always. And this year they've endorsed Republican Pat Lyons over Dem State Rep. Stephanie Garcia Richard in that hotly contested land commissioner battle. It's a special disappointment for her because her legislative district includes parts of Santa Fe County. The paper said the endorsement of Lyons, a former two term land commissioner, came down to who is qualified for the office.

The land commission race is rated Toss Up but we will revisit that rating based on upcoming poll results.

OPEN PRIMARIES 

Former State Rep. Bob Perls and his group Open Primaries have been pushing hard to let independents vote in the state's primary elections. They asked this year's candidates what they thought and when they finished the group endorsed Libertarians Gary Johnson for US Senate and Lloyd Princeton for the ABQ congressional seat. The full list of their endorsements is here.

MAGGIE AND MARY 

The SOS

Sounds like former Dem Secretary of State Mary Herrera is miffed over current Dem SOS Maggie Toulouse Oliver. This is from Gavin Clarkson who is the GOP nominee running against the SOS:

Former SOS Mary Herrera has endorsed Dr. Gavin Clarkson for the office she once held.  Herrera said she views Clarkson’s background in business, law, and technology as noteworthy qualifications for the office that oversees the state’s elections, ethics, and corporate records. “New Mexico needs more jobs, and our faith in free and fair elections must be restored. Accomplishing these objectives will require accountability to the rule of law from our elected officials, especially those entrusted with refereeing our elections and ethics,” Herrera wrote.

STATE HOUSE ACTION

The BernCo Commission last night gave Democrat Bill Pratt, 83, a leg up in his very uphill race to replace ABQ GOP State Representative Larry Larrañaga:

Commissioners appointed Dr. Pratt to fill the District 27 seat. Pratt is a retired orthopedic surgeon. . .He is a lifelong advocate for children's’ health and related issues, and a 40-year New Mexico resident . . . The seat was vacated by Larry Larrañaga who resigned. Representative Larrañaga passed away Oct. 9 at the age of 80. . (Democratic) Commissioners Steven Michael Quezada, Debbie O’Malley, and Maggie Hart Stebbins voted in favor. (GOP) Commissioners Lonnie Talbert and James E. Smith voted against.

The R's selected Bob Godshall, a retired border patrol agent, to replace Larrañaga on the ballot. He is heavily favored to keep the seat in the GOP column.

CORRUPTUS

In just a matter of weeks Governor Martinez and her political adviser Jay McCleskey will be gone. But their tight control of state government will not be forgotten. Former ABQ Journal reporter Phil Parker has already been working on the story. He's written a novel--"Corruptus" based on his coverage of the capitol. From Amazon:

An obsessed reporter feuds with the New Mexico governor and her top adviser. Corruptus is an X-ray of politics, and also one man’s quest for truth, revenge, and his lost dog. As his city (Santa Fe) and state burn, Matt White wants honest answers from public servants. Their lies become oppressive. Infuriating! What is propaganda? What is corruption? Matt snaps. For asking questions his newspaper bosses consider uncouth, he is fired. The next day, his furry best friend disappears. When an old acquaintance hires Matt to follow money and hold power accountable, Matt’s story becomes a hellish descent through the state's haunted capitol, toward confronting the puppet master Alan Kripky, winner of campaigns and destroyer of enemies.

Interesting. Maybe Phil will give some autographed copies to Susana and Jay as going away gifts? And is the Roundhouse really haunted?
THE BOTTOM LINES

In a first draft Tuesday we said Rep. Pearce supports Trump's border wall. He does not. He favors using technology and better border enforcement manpower to secure the border.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2018