Wednesday, October 31, 2018Doubling Down On Trump: Kellyanne Coming In For Yvette On The Heels Of VP Pence; Dems Plow Even More Cash In For Xochitl, Plus: Halloween Steve And An Appeals Court Race To Watch Conway, 51, whose official title is Counselor to the President, and Herrell will rally the GOP faithful at a Halloween get out the vote rally tonight at 7 p.m. at Lincoln County Republican Headquarters in Ruidoso. Lincoln is in the heart of GOP country and where Herrell is working feverishly to run up the totals against her Democratic opponent Xochitl Torres Small of Las Cruces. In a contest that has seen the two combatants tied or nearly tied in the polling, Herrell has stuck to her guns and never deviated from her support for Trump who easily carried the southern congressional district in 2016. Last week VP Pence rallied with her in Roswell, demonstrating the importance of this seat to the Republicans as they wage an uphill battle to prevent the Democrats from seizing control of the lower chamber of the US Congress and seeing Trump's agenda thwarted in the second half of his term. Said Herrell of the visit: I am excited to welcome Kellyanne back to New Mexico. Her attendance at this Get Out The Vote rally demonstrates the importance of this election and how vital it is that New Mexico maintains this conservative voice in Congress. There's that reference to Herrell's conservatism that makes her support so bedrock in SE NM whose economy is dominated by oil, ranching and the military. It has had the 33 year old Torres Small, making her first bid for elective office, constantly searching for ways to present herself as a moderate/conservative Dem who the Eastside conservatives don't have to be threatened by. Herrell, 54, a four term state legislator out of Otero County, has run a consistently conservative campaign, not bending a bit to liberals or moderates in the district. Will that consistency be the deciding factor? Certainly Herrell believes so which is why Kellyanne is here tonight. NO BACK DOWN  Joe, Xochitl is an excellent candidate. The problem is turnout. Hispanic turnout is a longtime problem in the southern district. Looking at early voting data, it could again be an issue. For example, the Valencia County portion of the district, where Xochitl needs turnout, does not have any contests besides the US House race that are close and getting Dem voters engaged. Also, after a good start with the absentees, Dem turnout in Democratic Dona Ana county seems to have leveled off. Statewide I am seeing an average turnout for this election--not a big increase. The higher the turnout the better for the Dems to pull the upset and take the southern seat which has been in GOP hands for four decades, except for one two year stint. GOP turnout is more reliable than the Dems but they still need to get their voters to the polls. With VP Pence and now Kellyanne campaigning for her, Herrell has fully embraced the nationalization of this contest and is flying the Trump flag high. Will it wave high over southern New Mexico Election Night or be lowered to half staff? We know we don't have to tell you to stay tuned. DEMING FOR XOCHITL While Yvette is Halloweening with Conway, Xochitl is trick or treating today with voters in Deming where she will stump with Senator Heinrich and Dem Lt. Governor candidate and State Senator Howie Morales. She will also have a Coffee in Capitan in Lincoln County Nov. 2 with her old boss Dem Senator Tom Udall. He doesn't have quite the star power of Kellyanne, but maybe he can woo the locals by bringing in the good stuff from Starbucks.
We have the southern congressional race rated Lean Republican. Inside Politics has it Tilt Republican. The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and FiveThirtyEight rate it a Toss Up.
HALLOWEEN STEVE  We couldn't find any scary Halloween mailers, but this one featuring GOP Guv nominee Steve Pearce came close. At first we thought he was the Lone Ranger but then read the copy which says "he can't hide his record."Pearce has pretty thick skin so he's probably not too offended. In fact, if he was having trouble figuring out a Halloween costume tonight, all he has to do is snap on that black mask and go down to ABQ's liberal North Valley and scare the daylights out of Michelle's supporters. MLG has plenty of treats to hand out to voters, including a promise to dramatically expand early childhood education. One of her closing TV ads is titled "Teacher" and is narrated by ABQ kindergarten teacher Sonya Romero whose work was recently recognized on the national talk show Ellen. (Hey, doesn't Sonya look a lot like Melania Trump or are we seeing things at this wacky stage of the campaign?) APPEALS COURT WATCH If history is a guide the race for the NM Court of Appeals featuring Democrat Megan Duffy and appointed GOP Court of Appeals Judge Daniel Gallegos could be close. Duffy apparently realizes it and in her TV spot she takes a shot at Gallegos for being appointed by Gov. Martinez whose picture is prominently displayed. It's one of the few ads out there this cycle trying to cash in on Martinez's popularity plunge to the mid-30's from the 60's in her good 'ol days. Gallegos has deep roots in the Albuquerque area. And don’t underestimate the ethnic factor in the north. This is a race to watch. LAND COMMISSIONER CONTEST Here's the NYT climate section on the NM land commissioner race featuring Republican Pat Lyons And Dem Stephanie Garcia Richard: (The) race. . .is drawing attention from national environmental groups and one of the country’s largest oil companies. At stake is a job with the authority to regulate the emissions of methane, a powerful planet-warming greenhouse gas that leaks from oil and gas operations and is more than 25 times as potent as carbon dioxide in trapping heat in the atmosphere. In New Mexico, methane leaks are a big deal. Leaks from oil and gas operations in and around the state have created the nation’s largest methane cloud. . . over the state’s Four Corners region. Voters will choose between Garcia Richard who has vowed to crack down on leaks of methane, and Patrick Lyons, a Republican He has the backing of the oil industry, including a $2 million contribution by Chevron to the political action committee supporting his campaign. Garcia Richard wrote to her supporters this week: "This election will most likely be decided by less than 5,000 votes." She may be right. But it could be more.  We've blogged of the giant surplus the state is getting from the oil boom--as much as $2 billion in new money when legislators meet in January. Gosh, could something go wrong?So what about corruption in the legislative branch? We got a dose of it with State Senator Phil Griego. And with the state receiving a gargantuan cash flow from the Permian Basin oil fields, the cynics are warning that the temptations to "misuse" some of that windfall could be great. No one in Santa Fe has ever seen this kind of money in one year. For the unethical the lure to divert some to favored friends could be there. Voters are expected to overwhelmingly approve an independent state ethics commission this November. The details of how it will operate will be decided by lawmakers. Will it be a toothless wonder? Or a deterrent to the foxes looking to feed off the state's new found wealth? PARTY TIME We hadn't received the notice that the state Dems would be having their Election Night party at Hotel ABQ when we blogged that the R's would be at the ABQ Crowne Plaza to watch the returns roll in. The Dems can be accused of a lot of things but not enjoying a party is not on the list. We'll have our Election Night party on KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.com, where it's been held every election since 1988. We'll start at 6:30 to set the scene and then be on top of the early vote when it starts to come in after 7 p.m. No one puts a lampshade on their head and dances around at our radio party (at least not yet), but La Politica always delivers surprises that keep the party going into the late night hours. You are cordially invited to join us for our 30th year of Election Night coverage on public radio. THE BOTTOM LINES A line we had in the first draft of the Tuesday Monster blog about Delta Consulting and Dem Guv candidate Michelle Lujan Grisham just didn't come out right. The intent was clear but not the writing. Several readers alerted us and we made a change and we thank them for that. Despite its perils, Monster blogging will continue here tomorrow because, well, that's the way we roll. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.   (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2018 |
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