Dona Ana had a turnout boomlet in the very early going as the Dems mined absentee ballots but that has now faded. Dona Ana has fallen behind Santa Fe County in the number of votes cast even though it has about 16,000 more registered voters.

THE POLLING

The public polling has stalled out in the Guv's race. We got a false flag and blogged that the Journal's second and final poll would be released this past Sunday, but we should have double checked.

Pollster Brian Sanderoff says the final survey won't come until the final weekend of the election, with results of the races being published on Saturday and Sunday.

That poll being taken this week should be highly accurate, given that it will be akin to an exit poll because of the large numbers of likely voters who have already cast ballots. But because its release will come after most of the early vote has been cast--as much as 65 percent of the total vote--it won't have much influence over the campaign narrative.

MLG POLL

The pollster for MLG--Greenberg Quinlan Rosner--says she is up by nine points over Steve Pearce--53-44--in a survey conducted Oct. 22-26 using both landline and cellphones and that has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points. The pollster says:

Depite a barrage of negative attacks against Lujan Grisham, she maintains a positive standing among voters. Her favorability stands at 45 percent favorable to 37 percent unfavorable. At the same time, Pearce has failed to win voters over; his negatives outweigh his positives by 3 points, 42 percent unfavorable versus 39 percent favorable.

The campaign did not release the question asked of 600 likely voters.

Pearce's campaign has painted a closer picture, but has not released any polling. He continues to barnstorm the North and East today with stops in Las Vegas, Santa Rosa, Fort Sumner, Melrose, and Clovis as part of his “Jobs Now” Bus Tour.

The race for Governor is rated Lean Democrat.

THE ENDORSING

Meantime, the ABQ Journal again had difficulty in settling on a major political endorsement. You may recall last year when in an unusual move they endorsed two candidates in the first round of ABQ's mayoral voting. They didn't do that in the gubernatorial contest Sunday but in endorsing Steve Pearce they made mention of the positive qualities of Lujan Grisham, a departure form the norm and a signal that they were again conflicted.

The Pearce endorsement was a mild surprise to us and others in the political community who expected MLG to garner all three major newspaper endorsements. The Santa Fe New Mexican and Las Cruces Sun-News have already given her the nod so she finishes two for three.

THE ARGUMENT

The Journal's endorsement focused on Pearce's fiscal conservatism. They warned that the huge surplus that Santa Fe will have in the next legislative session should not be spent for "recurring" expenditures such as hiring more teachers or social workers for CYFD to whittle away at the state's social conditions crisis.

And they again opposed the proposed constitutional amendment that MLG supports that would allow a small portion of the $18 billion Land Grant Permanent Fund to be used for early childhood education. Pearce opposes the amendment. Journal polling shows the public is overwhelmingly supportive.

From this corner we see the fiscal austerity argument as out of steam after eight years of dominance under Gov. Martinez. The state has only worsened in vital quality of life measures across the board and as the best and brightest continue to flee for greener pastures.

First off, the surplus is going to be well over the $1.2 billion that the editorial cites. It could near $2 billion as NM House Speaker Brian Egolf recently reported to our readers and to KOB-TV's viewers and as mentioned in the New Mexican.

That gargantuan sum presents a once in a generation opportunity and can't simply be put under the state's pillow. And the NM Oil and Gas Association says based on forecasted oil production in the SE the surplus is expected to continue for the next five years. In other words, there will be money to finance "recurring expenditures" for improving education and the like.

The social and economic deterioration of New Mexico brought about by long term crime waves; a drug epidemic; education inferiority; out migration; low-paying jobs; not enough jobs and federal spending cutbacks will yield to investment. That's a given. Saying that it won't and offering no alternatives is paramount to giving up.

Not to take sides in the Governor's race--and we won't--but Lujan Grisham gets it right when she declares: "I will never give up on New Mexico." Neither will we.

THE IMMENSITY

The immensity of what is happening with that SE oil boom is hard to get your arms around. We simply haven't seen anything like it in state history. For example:

The Bureau of Land Management’s (BLM) third-quarter oil and gas lease sale in New Mexico broke all previous records by grossing nearly $1 billion in bonus bids for 142 parcels. The two-day sale brought in more revenue than all BLM oil and gas sales in 2017 combined, and surpassed BLM’s previous best sales year. . . Forty-eight percent of the revenue from lease sales goes to the state where the oil and gas activity is occurring, while the rest goes to the U.S. Treasury.

No one wants to waste the largess pouring in but for a state ranked 49th or 50th in poverty, child well-being etc. etc. this is a godsend. It is also a challenge to the state's environmentalists whose job it is to safeguard the public lands and hold industry responsible, no matter its financial contribution to the state.

PENCE VISIT 

We learn more about that Friday Roswell visit from VP Pence on behalf of Steve Pearce and GOP congressional hopeful Yvette Herrell here. . .

SOUTHERN MONEY

It's been a real spending spree in that southern congressional contest. Dem Xochitl Torres Small has dominated, garnering Dem support from around the nation and raising $3.8 million in total since the start of her campaign, including the June primary.

And so far those out of state super PACs that are flooding the airwaves have spent $2.8 million attacking Herrell. The super PACS on Herrell's side have spent $1.6 million attacking Torres Small.

Herrell's campaign has raised less than half of what Torres Small managed, reporting a total of $1.2 million thus far, according to FEC reports. The info on the outside money is from OpenSecrets.org.

The southern race is rated Lean R here and Toss Up by most national pundits.

SENATE SPENDING

In the US Senate spending race OpenSecrets reports that as of mid-October Libertarian Gary Johnson had only raised $347,000, including over $100,000 of his own. He has spent $290,000 since getting in the race in August. Dem Senator Martin Heinrich has raised $8.3 million since 2013 and spent over $7 million. Republican Mick Rich, with help from his own wallet, has raised $896,000 and spent over $780,000. That does not include any broadcast TV.

The Senate hopefuls had an under-the-radar final TV debate Friday night. It was sponsored by KRQE-TV but tucked away on one of the station's unheralded cable outlets and streamed on the KRQE website. For those who did manage to catch it the press described it as "raucous."

The US Senate race is rated Safe Democrat.

The Republican Governors Association comes with a rewrite of the ubiquitous Delta Consulting ad against Guv hopeful Lujan Grisham. The Save The Children Action Network PAC puts up $400,000 and two TV spots in favor of MLG and her stance on early childhood education.

ONLY TWO?

Look at this from Dan Sena, a longtime operative with NM experience and who is a top adviser to NM Rep. Ben Ray Lujan, chairman of the Dem Congressional Campaign Committee:

The massive battlefield (for the US House) remains a problem for Republicans, who have struggled to match Democratic fundraising and face several first-time candidates not yet tainted by Washington. Still, Dan Sena, the executive director of the House Democrats campaign arm, recently predicted Democrats would win the majority by only two seats.

Only two? If Sena is serious and not just playing down expectations it sounds as if the US House in Washington could be a lot like our NM Senate where a coalition of Rs and D's often come together on key issues. Would Ben Ray still be able to call that a win or would the Dems toss him in the Potomac?

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2018