Sunday, September 16, 2018

Poll Disappoints Pearce; Lujan Grisham gets 50% to his 43%; Heinrich Way Ahead Of Two Challengers; Some Takeaways:

Steve Pearce was close but it was no cigar. In the first ABQ Journal poll, important for campaign momentum in the final weeks, the GOP Governor nominee faltered. Dem Michelle Lujan Grisham managed to get to the critical 50 percent level, compared to his 43 percent. Just one point lower and the poll would have been a psychological boon to the underdog Pearce who in earlier polls had kept MLG below that 50 percent mark. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percent and Pearce may have actually held her below 50, but still. . .

The ABQ Journal poll conducted this past week surveys likely, proven voters. It shows a commanding ABQ lead for MLG of 53% to 41% for Pearce. That basically tells most of the story--if Pearce can't crack the populous Blue BernCo region he will have no chance.

Pearce has no choice but to launch a negative campaign and he started Friday with campaign commercials accusing MLG of corruption. She promptly answered with an ad of her own.

Pearce must now hope that his negative ads will pull support from her and into his camp, or at least into the undecided column.

The 43 percent that Pearce polls is about the average performance for a statewide GOP candidate in blue New Mexico. He has run a good campaign but the unpopularity of Trump and Pearce's long-established conservative record are holding him back. So for Pearce it's back to the drawing board. For Lujan Grisham, its no time to rest on her laurels. In a year heavily favoring Dems she beat Pearce in the first major poll, but she did not blow him out.

In the US Senate race, no surprise. Dem Senator Martin Heinrich polled 47%, Republican Mick Rich garnered 26% and Libertarian nominee and former NM GOP Governor Gary Johnson was third with 16 percent. The race has not been targeted by the national GOP and it shows. The current pundit ranking of "Safe Democrat" is sure to be retained in the wake of this survey.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2018
Posted by: Joe Monahan / Sunday, September 16, 2018



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