Tuesday, September 04, 2018Critical Post Labor Day Phase Underway In Guv Chase: MLG Releases Poll To Bolster Supporters; Pearce Gets TV Station To Pull Attack Ad, Plus: Time To Downsize Zozobra?
Welcome back. If you missed it, check out our Monday blog below for more news. Now on to the action. . .
Seeking to build momentum now that Campaign '18 has entered the critical post-Labor Day phase, the campaign of Dem Guv nominee Michelle Lujan Grisham released an internal poll that tried to dispel fear among Dems that Republican Steve Pearce is closer than expected and that, in fact, Pearce has a shot at winning the Governor's chair. The survey has Lujan Grisham beating Pearce 52-44 with only 4 percent undecided. The very low undecided raises questions about whether the 600 likely voters polled from August 18-22 were pushed to give an answer on the Governor's race. The campaign did not release the question (s) that were asked. The poll was conducted by Greenberg Quninlan Rosner. The polling memo did not list a margin of error but in surveys of this size it is typically around plus or minus 4 percent. The survey said MLG's favorable rating is at 47 percent and unfavorable at 29 percent. It had Pearce's favorables at 38 and unfavorable rating at 37 percent. The results are a far cry from the August Emerson College survey that had the race as a nailbiter, with MLG squeaking by Pearce 42-40. It's interesting that the Emerson poll was taken August 17-18, around the same time as the MLG internal survey. Emerson used landlines and online samples while the MLG poll employed landlines and cellphones. Republican consultants do believe that MLG is ahead. However, they do not believe she is over the critical 50 percent mark. They point out that neither campaign has released any recent comprehensive and transparent polling that puts their contender over that threshold. (A June SurveyUSA poll did have MLG leading Pearce 51-38.) For Pearce the worry is that the best is behind him, that a solid summer will be greeted by a sagging fall as Dem voters--the majority--start to come home. For MLG the fear is that her inability to put away Pearce over the summer will continue as the green chile harvest comes in.Pearce did a good job in fending off that spot financed by the Dem Governor's Association that accused him of being corrupt and in the pocket of the oil industry in which he made his fortune. And he got a late boost from KOAT-TV which, at his request, says it has pulled the spot because it did not meet its standards. Pearce's campaign reacted: The Pearce for Governor campaign thanks KOAT-TV for its leadership in keeping New Mexico election ads honest. Candidates and outside organizations have the right to speak their opinions, they do not have the right to knowingly lie on New Mexico airwaves. Some Dems sniped that KOAT was alone in pulling the ad. Still, this attack didn't stick and it's back to the drawing board for the DGA which spent $275,000 to try to take Pearce out. Maybe try some different consultants, DC? But Pearce is far from off the hook, A sleeper issue in this contest could be his tax returns which the Dems keep gnawing away at with demands that he release them. Pearce said in May that if MLG would release her returns he would do the same. Well, she released five years of returns but multi-millionaire Pearce has been quiet since making his pledge. You have to wonder if that's because he never dreamed she would release hers. DOWNSIZE ZOZOBRA? Some 2,000 fans of Zozobra were left at the gate--literally--because of problems managing the huge crowd which nearly matched the entire population of Santa Fe of around 70,000. Some irate attendees tried to climb walls to see the burning which went off 20 minutes earlier than scheduled because of projected bad weather. That only furthered the anxiety of those who could not get in. (Those locked out will get refunds.) The solution? How about moving Zozobra to a day where the event would play out with a smaller crowd but safely? Why does the Kiwanis Club of Santa Fe--longtime sponsor of the event--seem determined to set annual attendance records year after year? They will make plenty of money for charity with 10,000 or so fewer people viewing the spectacle and avoid potentially dangerous situations like this past Friday's in which a mob was nearly formed. A number of years ago the burning of Zoobora was moved to a Thursday because of a shooting death on the Plaza following the event. It was moved back to the Friday of Labor Day weekend in 2014. Now it seems time to move it again, perhaps to the Sunday night of the holiday weekend or a Friday following the holiday? Sometimes smaller is indeed better. Think of the ABQ International Balloon Fiesta--the state's premier tourist attraction. When the number of balloons entering soared over 1,000 and not enough landing sites were available, the Fiesta capped the balloons at 550. That gave us a safer and more manageable event without damaging its reputation. Zozobra is there to symbolize the burning of ones cares, not to create additional worries. Changing the date for his burning would preserve a great tradition that in the chaos of Friday night appeared increasingly endangered. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. ![]() (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2018
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