Steve Pearce turned 71 Friday but there was no surprise party for the '18 GOP gubernatorial nominee. He didn't need one. It's been Pearce throwing a surprise party for the state as his candidacy defies the odds and remains alive as we head into the final two months of the campaign.

Democrats are scratching their heads over Pearce. The conservative congressman, often dubbed ultra-conservative, has thus far successfully defined himself as something akin to a moderate Democrat. He's done it through a campaign that focuses relentlessly on jobs as a solution to the state's economic and social crisis which he sums up with one word--poverty--a word rarely heard crossing Republican lips in a state campaign.

The message resonates as authentic and simple, qualities that for now bury his right-wing ideology that poisoned his 2008 US Senate bid which he lost in a landslide. "The "new" Pearce has figured things out and his Dem opponent, Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham, will now have to effectively unmask Pearce or risk a much closer race than expected.

While Pearce has an uncomplicated message, what is coming from Lujan Grisham is more jumbled, an array of messages that focus on various voting groups but with no unifying theme, except, perhaps, her own personality. "Michelle" now appears in large letters at the end of her latest TV spot.

The Dems have long seen this race as out of reach for Pearce so MLG has offered soft balls to keep her lead while Pearce pitches across the plate trying for strikes. The quiet center to center right where Lujan Gisham has been resting does little to generate enthusiasm or momentum. The bet is that's the place for her to be with her current single digit lead and with demographics and history weighing heavily in her favor. But sitting still also means you're not moving.

Pearce is also getting a break of sorts from a somewhat off-target negative strike financed by the Democratic Governors Association. It's a $275,000 ad buy that tries to paint the southern congressman as a corrupt oil boss. But the charges are old and previously vetted. And why did the DGA not just directly say they did the ad instead of some made up committee that Pearce is now using against them?

DELTA DAYS

As we've written, the ad buy in part is meant to preempt corruption charges expected to come from Pearce and the R's over MLG's controversial past ownership role in healthcare firm Delta Consulting. It received state contracts to run the high risk insurance pool. Another owner of the company, ABQ Dem State Rep. Deborah Armstrong, is MLG's former campaign treasurer (recently replaced) and sits on a legislative committee that had a say in Delta. At the least, the optics are damaging.

Can Pearce make more hay of this than her primary foes could? GOP consultants believe if he could force the Dem nominee to fumble on Delta and voters bought into the notion that the old right-wing Steve Pearce is really no more, he could squeeze out a win.

R'S STILL RETICENT

Pearce has responded to the DGA financed attacks with an ad buy of his own. His campaign says his buy is comparable in size. However, it's telling that the Republican Governors Association has not yet stepped up with an ad buy on behalf of Pearce.

While he has surprised over the summer, the insider betting is that the demographics come home to roost after Labor Day and Pearce will be unable to expand much beyond his base.

Not that he isn't trying. He came recently with a news conference on the troubled CYFD and the epidemic of child abuse that has struck the state since the economic crash a decade ago. In doing so he subtly attacks the credibility of his fellow Republican--Governor Susana Martinez--whose approval rating in the recent Emerson College poll hit a new low of 30 percent. Pearce said:

Installing CYFD leadership with real world, hands on management experience in the areas of child protection, abuse investigations, behavioral/mental health, and law enforcement. The culture of allowing problems to remain unaddressed until tragedy strikes must change immediately. That starts with proper experience and tough management at the Department.

That swipe at CYFD and the GOP administration that controls it is yet another demonstration of the "new" Pearce who goes where he has to as he works to appeal to constituents--in this case women--who appear solidly behind MLG. (Her comments on CYFD are here).

THE AUGUST WINNER

The big picture remains static: MLG is the front-runner and the favorite to win in November. The race remains "Lean Dem." Pearce is not a longshot, however, with a one in three chance seeming a fair assessment based on what he has done so far in a year when national GOP baggage is heavy and after 8 years of a GOP Governor now deeply unpopular.

MLG won the month of June on the heels of her primary win but Pearce sprang back to take July and now he makes it two in a row by winning August. Some key reasons:

--He was not knocked out. The Emerson College Poll, (right or wrong and we've written critically of it), has Pearce trailing by only two points, 42-40, helping him with fund-raising and voter perception.

--The Apodacas. Former Gov. Jerry Apodaca endorsed Pearce and his son Jeff continues to give MLG trouble on the trail. That gives Pearce some street cred with Hispanic Dems who have rejected him. Of course he will need a lot more.

--The aforementioned DGA attacks came because the Dems fear the corruption charges that have been leveled against MLG over her role in Delta Consulting. It's a defensive play. By this stage you would have expected the DGA to be presenting Pearce's conservative record as Loony Tunes. That will still come but Delta gave Pearce more time to continue as a "moderate" even if sustaining some mild damage from the DGA attack.

--In August, Pearce continued to promise something concrete to voters--jobs. That's a top two issue (along with education) in the state, according to polling. The MLG message continues to be less tangible and, most important, less compelling.

MLG supporters dismiss this as hogwash, saying the insider polling shows her moving and that Pearce is now in panic mode. Maybe. So. . .

Has Pearce, who would be the oldest person elected Governor in state history, peaked? Is his summer of fun about to turn into a Fall from grace? Dems think so but have learned that he isn't going to fall by himself. It's going to take a push.

JOBS, JOBS, JOBS

Garcia Holmes

That jobs message Pearce is hammering is traditional Dem territory and MLG and her running mate Howie Morales are getting back on it as they launch a jobs tour to all 33 counties of the state.

Howie Morales and I are starting our Jobs and Leadership Bus Tour to talk to voters from all 33 counties in New Mexico about our plans to create good-paying jobs, boost our economy, and expand our clean energy sector. Find an event near you here.

The GOP lieutenant Governor candidate, Michelle Garcia Holmes, is also on the campaign trail. Here she is in Hatch pictured with its famous chile in the middle of harvest season. In New Mexico it's hard to go wrong with those colors.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2018