Gary Johnson

The sleepy US Senate race has been jolted from its long summer's nap by word that former NM GOP Governor Gary Johnson, that aficionado of quirky political theater, may step into the race. But if he is going to do it he's going to have to invoke his well-known penchant for ignoring political reality. Take a look:

To be clear, though, I will not run unless I believe I can win.

But with Republican Senate nominee Mick Rich vowing to stay in the race and Johnson planning to run as a Libertarian now that Aubrey Dunn has dropped out of the race, it's hard to see a path to victory for the 65 year old two time presidential candidate, who in '16 polled three percent nationally and 9 percent in NM as the Libertarian standard-bearer.

Rich and Johnson would be slicing up the same conservative pie but Johnson, who is blessed or (cursed) with an outsized ego, is never one to take reality too seriously.

Social media had fun with that political problem calling his possible Senate run "reefer madness," referencing Johnson's longtime advocacy of legalizing marijuana and his own use of the drug.

Watching all of this from his seat atop a stack of $4 million in cash in the bank is Dem Senator Martin Heinrich who is seeking a second six year term in November. He will begin to deploy his stash this week with his first round of TV ads. Then he will wait and see like the rest of the state how serious Johnson is when it comes to running. Would he raise the couple of million he would need for a serious bid? It's a tall order, given that we are now less than 100 days from Election Day.

Meantime, contractor Mick Rich continues to wander the state like a man without a country. With even Republicans cynical about his chances and no national money coming to his aid, the conversation is more about whether it would be Rich or Johnson who would take second place to Heinrich.

Johnson is not shooting totally in the dark when it comes to Heinrich. The Senator's latest approval rating in the Morning Consult poll of registered voters is an anemic 43 percent, disapproval is 32 and no opinion is 23 percent. That's even a bit low in this era when getting to 50 percent approval is a major mountain climb. (Senator Udall gets 46% approval), However, the lack of a Heinrich TV presence, which is seen playing a role in his relatively puny numbers, will soon be resolved.

Some GOP consultants say they would hunger for a one-on-one match between Johnson and Heinrich, but even then an upset is more like a dream. No incumbent NM Senator has been ousted since 1982. And nothing but Democrats have been elected to the Senate from NM since Republican Pete Domenici won his last re-election bid in 2002.

Heinrich also can take solace in knowing that Johnson--to his credit--has never waged a negative campaign and Rich with only $200,00 in cash at last report will be unable to.

If Gary does get in it could be difficult for Heinrich to ignore him. The media clamor for TV and other debates would be high. The level of competition might not be what the fans would like, but a Johnson run would make the entertainment value of the somnolent Senate campaign skyrocket.

THE POT PITTANCE

No doubt one of the topics that would come to the surface if Johnson gets in the Senate contest is the legalization of pot. That's probably coming here someday as it has already in several states, but the argument that it will somehow be a boon to the state's financial fortunes just doesn't add up:

The Tax Foundation projects a 15 percent retail tax on cannabis could raise about $34 million for the state in a year while a 25 percent tax could raise about $57 million.

In a state budget of over $6 billion, that's barely a drop in the bucket. Then there are the social costs associated with more widespread pot use. Legalizing pot is about a lot of things but adding significant money to the state's budget isn't one of them.

DUNN DONE?

By ending his US Senate bid, as is expected today, State Land Commissioner Aubrey Dunn, Jr. appears to be putting an end to his erratic political career.

Long ago the rancher/banker ran for the southern GOP congressional nomination and lost. He returned to the political stage in 2014 and pulled off a great win against Dem incumbent Ray Powell, Jr. But then he decided not to seek re-election to the land office this year, even though his chances were not half bad. Instead he again sought the southern congressional seat only to withdraw. He then became a Libertarian and ran for the Heinrich senate seat. Now he's getting out of that contest.

It's believed Dunn, 62, bolted from the GOP when as land commissioner he got crosswise with the oil and gas industry. You wonder if looking in the rear view mirror he may regret not making peace with the oil boys and sticking with the R's.

By the way, the R nominee for land commissioner this year is Pat Lyons who previously served in the post. The Dem contender is State Rep. Stephanie Garcia Richard. The race is ranked Lean Democrat.