Xochitl Torres Small

Democratic optimism about taking over the southern congressional seat continues to grow as various pundits see a favorable national trend for the Dems, the latest being Larry Sabato and his Crystal Ball.

Sabato, this blog and others continue to rank the southern race between Republican State Rep. Yvette Herrell and Dem attorney Xochitl Torres Small as "lean Republican" but in a so called "wave election" D's think Torres Small could be swept in. That's what happened in the 2008 Dem wave when Harry Teague captured the seat but was only able to hang onto it for one term.

Rep. Yvette Herrell

The R's are showing some concern as Rep. Steve Pearce, who is giving up the seat to run for Governor, came with an early July 16 endorsement of Herrell. How he performs in the Guv race in his congressional district will be important to Herrell's chances.

Torres Small had a solid fund-raising quarter and at the end of June had more money in the bank than Herrell--$495,000 to Herrell's $100,000. However, Herrell had to spend much of her cash in a contested GOP primary. While Torres Small and the Dems boast of their fund-raising prowess, it may not make much of a difference if Herrell, as expected, catches up over the summer.

Of the three state congressional contests the southern battle is the only one seen as competitive this year.

OUT OF POSITION 

If Torres Small does take the win it would be a big score for her party but for New Mexico it might have an implication the Dems don't want to discuss. Torres Small in the US House would make the five member NM delegation all Democratic. For the first time in decades we would very likely have no Senator or US House member who is of the same party as the sitting president. And the Dems in this delegation are all openly hostile to Republican Trump.

If Trump loses in 2020 that might not be too threatening but if he is re-elected the state's delegation could find themselves even further out of position in DC.

And what does out of position mean? Well, look at the decision to place a majority of the multi-billion dollar plutonium pit program in South Carolina rather than at Los Alamos Labs. Or look at the proposal from Amtrak to end passenger train service from Dodge City, Kansas to Albuquerque. It would replace the Southwest Chief route with buses, forcing train passengers to disembark and take a bus to NM. Or look at the stalled $75 million in federal funding for the controversial ABQ ART project down Central Avenue.

Coincidences or early signals of the state's diminishing clout in DC under Trump? Stay tuned.

UDALL UNDECIDED?

Meanwhile, Democratic Senator Tom Udall has not put out strong signals that he is definitely running for re-election to a third, six year term in 2020. The betting odds favor a run, especially if the Dems were to take back control of the senate in November. But because the smoke signals from his office have not been decisive on a run the parlor game has begun over what Democrats might seek the office if he were to surprise and step down.

The list includes ABQ Mayor Tim Keller, Attorney General Hector Balderas, Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver and BernCo District Attorney Raul Torrez. Those elected officials would seem the likeliest to make a run.

But maybe Jeff Apodaca who tried for Governor this year would give it a whirl. Or northern Dem Rep. Ben Ray Lujan. Maybe a young up and comer like Paul Moya who ran for the ABQ congressional seat last year would make a play. Or an unknown wealthy Dem gets in and self-finances.

Udall's intentions will become more clear following the November election but until then his future gives the politicos something to chat about during these dog days of summer.

SLEEPER ISSUE

Here's a sleeper issue for Guv hopeful Steve Pearce that the state Dem Party is hammering away at:

50 days ago, Steve Pearce promised us his taxes. His opponent, Michelle Lujan Grisham, in the spirit of transparency, posted all of of her tax returns since 2013 on her campaign website, which is unprecedented for a candidate for governor of New Mexico. Pearce still hasn’t delivered. What’s he hiding?  

Pearce made millions in the SE oil business and his tax returns are highly anticipated. The AP reported June 1:

Pearce told a radio show host Wednesday that he would release his tax returns if Lujan Grisham