!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Transitional//EN" "http://www.w3.org/TR/xhtml1/DTD/xhtml1-transitional.dtd"> New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan <$BlogRSDUrl$>
Blog Banner

Thursday, June 07, 2018

More Winners And Losers From Primary '18

WINNER--The pre-primary convention. Once again no candidate who failed to get 20 percent delegate support at the March Democratic pre-primary convention won the June primary. Only one candidate in history has done so--Guv contender Gary King in 2014. Damon Martinez scored just 11 percent at this year's pre-primary but it looked for a time like he might be the second to defy history. But he fell short in the Dem ABQ congressional contest, losing to Deb Haaland. Like it or not, the pre-primary retains its predictive power.

LOSER--The polls. The Dem primary attracted new voters--many of them women who had not cast ballots in 2014 or 2016. The polling models broke down and none of the surveys--the Journal's, this blog's or the campaign polls got this one right.  Back to the drawing board.

WINNER--NM House Speaker Brian Egolf. He plays coy when it comes to ousted state Representatives Debbie Rodella and Carl Trujillo but every Alligator around is saying how much easier the absence of these willful and often conservative lawmakers will make his job at the next session of the Legislature. In short, the House is headed more left.

LOSER--Senator Martin Heinrich. For the first time the Dem Senator spent a hefty portion of his political capital on another candidate, heartily endorsing land commissioner hopeful and fellow environmentalist Garett VeneKlasen. It failed spectacularly with Stephanie Garcia Richard pulling off an upset win. Heinrich won't suffer in his re-election bid because of it, but it takes him down a notch in stature. If there's a book called "The Art of the Movida" it needs to be on the senator's bedside reading table.

LOSER--The Super PACS. It turns out they can't buy everything in sight. Their big bucks for Damon Martinez fell short as did the PNM PAC play against two liberal candidates for the Public Regulation Commission.  But don't worry, they'll probably be back to test that theory in the fall election.

LOSERS--The Trump bashers. Congressional candidate Martinez, auditor hopeful Bill McCamley and land commissioner hopeful Garrett VeneKlasen spent much of their campaigns bashing Trump. But Deb Haaland was more restrained, Auditor candidate Brian Colón did not lay a glove on Trump and Stephanie Garcia Richard also held back. They all won. Trump is easy pickings, perhaps too easy, and voters picked candidates who were offering more. That could hold a lesson for the Dems in November.

WINNER--Haaland political consultant Scott Forester. The longtime Dem consultant was on the ropes as Haaland struggled until the last week of the campaign. Critics complained that he was a local and that these congressional candidates demand out of state consultants. But Haaland's win put that to rest. And Forrester emerged from the forest.

On The Radio 
LOSER--State Senate conservatives. Can you imagine the pressure that is going to be on that small group of conservative/moderate Democrats in the Senate if the House moves to the left and there is a Democratic Governor to boot come November? When those Dems get together with the R's they control the show. But resisting too hard next year could put them on a collision course with the progressive wing which is sporting more muscle. The leader of that conservative coalition--State Senator John Arthur Smith--may face his ultimate test.

WINNER--The Old West connection. A candidate named Jesse James Casaus but who campaigned as Jesse James, won the Democratic nomination for Sandoval County Sheriff Tuesday night. New Mexico's frontier and wild west roots aren't gone yet.

THE BOTTOM LINES

The NYT takes a deep look at the historic Haaland candidacy. . . A reader writes about our Election broadcast on KANW 89.1 FM:

Comcast cable went out Tuesday night, and we had to turn to the Monahan Group radio show for results. You managed to be right on the Rep Rodella and Rep. Trujillo thing…although I detected a little bit of anxiety in your voice about 9:30 when Rio Arriba (uh hem) hadn’t reported…

First, thanks for the Comcast outage. Second, sometimes I think Rio Arriba holds back results intentionally just to make us gringos from Pennsylvania writhe in our seats.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2018

website design by limwebdesign