Colón and Keller

The first public poll of ABQ Election '17 is out and it confirms what our blog readers have been well aware of for weeks--State Auditor Tim Keller starts the final phase of the eight way race for Mayor as the front-runner and the candidate most likely to secure a top two finish. That would give him a spot in a November run-off election if no candidate gets 50 percent of the vote. And given the crowded field,  that threshold is not expected to be broken.

As for who will join Keller in that run-off, that question is much more cloudy.

The poll of 500 likely, registered voters conducted by mostly automated phone calls by KRQE-TV on August 26 and 27 shows Keller garnering 22% of the vote but his top three challengers had a hard time getting even half that amount.

Republican City Councilor Dan Lewis came in second with 11 percent, Democrat Brian Colón was at 10 and GOP County Commissioner Johnson had 8. The other candidates trailed, with independent Michelle Garcia Holmes getting 6 percent; Republican Ricardo Chavez at 5 and Democrats Susan Wheeler Deischel and Gus Pedrotty both at 1 percent.

The big issue is the undecided vote at 36 percent. The poll was conducted before Colón started his TV ads and before the major media push for all candidates begins for the October 3 balloting. There is a lot of voter education to do and if it doesn't motivate that huge block of undecided voters we could be headed for a lower turnout than expected.

The key question remains this: Can Colón with a warchest of well over $500,000 claim a spot in the run-off by jumping over Republicans Lewis, Johnson and Ricardo Chaves as they split the GOP vote and keep an R from making the run-off? Or will the R's end up uniting behind one of their own and sending him into a face-off with Keller?

KRQE-TV did not name the polling company that conducted the survey.

TRAIL HAPPENINGS

Keller released his first TV ad of the campaign, coming with a 15 second spot instead of the traditional 30 seconds because he opted for public financing and only has about $200,000 left. The ad, of course, focuses on the crime wave:

Albuquerque is going the wrong direction. I’m Tim Keller. As Mayor, I’ll stop the excuses and reform APD. Change Leadership. Add 400 new community officers, and attack violent crime. Let’s move Albuquerque forward.

Keller, who is known for being camera-friendly, narrates the ad himself. It's not a spot that is going to do him any harm as it dips his toe into all segments of the electorate. He's a solid favorite to make the run-off with his large progressive Democratic base so the decision was no boat rocking on the tube. The polling shows Keller performing strongly with female voters who make up a majority of the Democratic party.

Wayne Johnson at last report had about $208k in his campaign coffers. He spent a smidgen of that on Fox News this week, according to one of our media Alligators, who put the buy at $1,200. The point being that early in-person voting kicks off next week--on Sept. 13--and Johnson wants some kind of presence with the most likely of GOP voters before the early voting gets underway. A half dozen spots a day on Fox will get him some. . .

Keller opted for public financing and only has about $237,000 left to spend so his TV buy will be smallish. It will be supplemented, however, by a political committee set up on his behalf that will drop $200k or more in TV and mailings. Word is the committee will start working over Brian Colón in the days ahead Why?. . .

In a run-off election in a dominant Democratic city Keller will be heavily favored to beat any Republican. But fellow Dem Colón, more conservative than Keller, could give him headaches by getting the GOP and business groups to back him. Combined with Hispanic Dem support, that could put Colón over the top. So the Stop Colón Campaign can't begin soon enough for Keller. The question is whether it should have started much earlier. . .

Keller has been at the top of heap in getting local union endorsements. With business groups, not so much. But one of them--the ABQ Westside Chamber of Commerce has endorsed the Democrat, reports longtime Dem politico Dan Serrano. . .

The KRQE poll and insider polling all show crime to be the overwhelming concern among those likely to vote--60 percent in the TV poll identify it as the number one problem, similar to campaign polls. And no wonder. Look at this upcoming agenda from the Tres Volcanes Neighborhood Association on the Westside. Every item deals with the crime crisis:

Agenda: 
Crime Prevention
Forming a Neighborhood Watch
Neighborhood Patrols update and training
We value your input and ideas and we look forward to seeing you at our next meeting!

Meanwhile, thieves continue to target tourists and others staying overnight at local hotels and parking their U-Hauls there. It's really out of control when the police say they can't protect these places and when the local innkeepers absolve themselves by posting signs that say they are not responsible for the epidemic of thefts.

SICK LEAVE SURGE?

If the mayoral contest doesn't end up motivating a lot of voters maybe that controversial sick leave ordinance will do the trick. The proposal is on the ballot and drawing intense support and opposition.

The campaign committee of businessmen and realtors working to kill it has raised over $103,000 and the progressive committee of supporters reports spending about $65,000 so far and with more to come.

The proposal, which would make sick leave a right for all ABQ workers, is opposed by all the GOP mayoral candidates as well as independent Michelle Garcia Holmes who calls it a "job killer." Leading Dem candidates Keller and Colón give it lukewarm support.

Low income workers who would benefit most from the plan are notoriously difficult to get to the polls in a city election. Not so with small business owners. This one could tilt the turnout more to the conservative side unless the supporters can find a way to defy that low turnout trend.

We posted a flyer in support of the ordinance today and await the opposition literature. We won't have to wait long.

ONE AND DONE 

Gonzales (Reporter)

Santa Fe Mayor Javier Gonzales gave no indication that he will seek another elective office when he announced Wednesday that he would not seek a second four year term in 2018. And he probably won't.

Gonzales, a former NM Dem Party chairman, took a body blow when he campaigned vigorously for a two cents an ounce tax on soda to be used for pre-k programs only to see it lose in a landslide. That rapidly quieted talk that he might be a 2018 gubernatorial contender.

(His complete statement here.)

Although his approval rating was put at 51 percent in a recent poll conducted by a business group, that is not all that great. Remember, ABQ Mayor Berry was polling much higher when he sought re-election four years ago as did Mayor Chavez in his heyday.

The next mayor of Santa Fe will be full-time and get a salary of $110,000 a year. With populist City Councilor Ron Trujillo already announced for Mayor and breathing down his neck, Gonzales, a longtime businessman, probably saw this as the time to make his getaway, get back into the private sector and make some serious coin. He has two teenaged daughters who will soon be on their way to college.

That poll showed Gonzales is presiding over a city torn asunder over income equality, with the Hispanic natives coming up short compared to the Anglos. It's a ready made play for populist Trujillo but not progressive Gonzales.

Mayor Gonzales will be remembered as a competent administrator who helped guide the city through a budget crisis brought on by the Great Recession, as the first openly gay Mayor of the City Different, for presiding over an administration free from major scandal, for keeping tourism stable if not overly robust and for genuinely caring about his hometown and its people.

THE BOTTOM LINES

There's a plethora of campaign forums for the mayoral hopefuls and some of the city council contenders this cycle. And that's a good thing:

NAACP Civil Rights and Diversity Conference Mayoral Forum, 6 p.m.-8 p.m., Sept. 8, Embassy Suites Hotel near Downtown.

Three Neighborhood Associations (Hoffmantown, Indian School ) are sponsoring a Mayoral/District 7 City Council Candidates Q & A on Saturday, Sept. 9th, 1:30p-4p (doors open @ 1p). Location: St. Luke’s Lutheran Church, 9100 Menaul Blvd. NE (south side of Menaul, between Wyoming and Eubank.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2017