Wayne Johnson

Wayne Johnson is quickly transforming from a mere nuisance into an existential threat to Dan Lewis.

On the day Lewis unveiled a comprehensive anti-crime plan, the cornerstone of his campaign for ABQ mayor, fellow Republican Johnson effectively elbowed his way into the media spotlight with a crime plan of his own. That diluted the message of City Councilor Lewis and signaled that it is game on in the fight for the hearts of the sizable block of GOP voters.

It wasn't supposed to be this way. Lewis seems to pull more "regular Republicans" and also has support in the party establishment (think the folks hanging out at state GOP headquarters) but Johnson is the love child of the powerful development community--think NAIOP and guys like Sherman McCorkle and former NM GOP Chair Ed Lujan. Lewis was supposed to shoo away Johnson like a puppy nipping at his heels. Now Lewis has a pit bull chasing him and the withering attacks to come aren't going to be pretty.

Lewis has raised a healthy amount of cash for his effort--$416,000--but at the last report only had $169,000 in the bank. What happened to all that money? Well, just from July 14 thru August 10 Lewis spent over $39,000 on campaign staff and consulting. Also. . .

Lewis has gone gangbusters on social media while BernCo Commissioner Johnson mostly held his fire and has accumulated a war chest of $207,000. That should represent chicken feed to Lewis but he's been burning through his cash with little noticeable impact and faster than hot green chile races to your intestinal tract.

It's an open secret that the average age of a voter in the mayoral derby is well over 50. They are the least likely to consume social media and Lewis knows that. But he's been spending heavily to saturate Facebook with well-produced anti-crime videos. But it's TV news that still is the chief persuader for the prune juice crowd, as well as the printed page.

And speaking of the ink stained wretches, our Alligators are starting to question our early call that the ABQ Journal would likely endorse Lewis. And we're starting to second guess that call ourselves. (Hey, that's why we have Alligators.) From one of the Senior variety:

Based on the Journal's coverage and coordination, it looks like Wayne Johnson's their man

Well, we don't know about "coordination" but there was a decided tilt to give Johnson's crime plan more than equal footing with the Lewis plan, despite the skimpier nature of Johnson's effort contrasted with the 11 page missive from Lewis.

The Lang family--owners of the newspaper--are actually making their coin these days from the commercial property and real estate development business and are heavyweight players in NAIOP--the unofficial campaign headquarters of Johnson. So casting their lot with Johnson makes sense.

About the only race a daily paper plays more than a nominal role in anymore is the low turnout, senior citizen heavy mayoral election. Otherwise, the bloggers and bench warmers wouldn't pay a nickel's worth of attention to their ramblings. But Lewis is going to have to pay attention to that and most menacingly to one Wayne Johnson.

MAKE IT 3.5

Lets make it the "Big Three And A Half." We started the handicapping by naming Dem State Auditor Tim Keller, State Dem Party Chair Brian Colon and Dan Lewis as "The Big Three" in the eight candidate mayoral contest. But with Johnson making that well executed play against Lewis on his crime plan Tuesday, we think he's finally come to play. Will it soon be "The Big Four?"

THE CRIME PLAY

Lewis

Lewis' crime plan is well-crafted. There is plenty to debate in it but there's no arguing that it is meaty. But it isn't the intellectual angle that jumps out most. It is a potential mayor actually calling out the brazen criminal class in this community and putting it on notice, the first of any local leader to do so as the crime wave drowns their resolve and their fight. Said Lewis:

We are not leaving, you are. Criminals are going to leave, not us.

Okay so he delivered it in a rather tepid manner. He could work on the delivery. But the criminals do pay attention to that stuff. "You mean, someone will actually challenge our reign?"

Has anyone heard the current mayor, chief of police, district attorney or city chief administrative officer take it directly to the criminal class? It has been all about finger-pointing and excuses as to why they have not been able to perform their duties.

Of course, it will take action to back up the tough talk. But whoever is the next mayor would be well-served by doing what Lewis has done which is to shift the psychological narrative that is haunting this city--that the criminals are here to stay and we are here to go.

THE DEMON ANGLE

There is one problem with the Lewis shift. In his crime program he continues his demonization of the judiciary, promising to monitor weak-kneed judges who release criminals from jail. The vigilante justice that Lewis seeks puts him back in the lap of the current city leadership which continues to blame the black-robed bench sitters as the problem in chief when it comes to crime.

But we don't see the judges or their surrogates blaming the political leadership for the city's descent into economic stagnation, the ongoing drug addiction and poverty that leads to all-crime-all-the-time or the questionable use of federal money for buses to nowhere. After eight years of fecklessness and finger-pointing shouldn't the next mayor be the one who says the buck stops here?

BONUS ANALYSIS

Here's the deal. The crack in GOP support between Johnson and Lewis is like the San Andreas Fault in Johnson's home county commission district in the far NE Heights. Lewis will shake there Election Night like he's standing at a quake's epicenter. The question is can he keep the fissures in the GOP smaller in other Republican areas? If not, he will be in danger of slipping behind and missing the two person run-off. The fantasy that Lewis can drum up a lot of Dem support to offset the Republican bleeding is probably just that--fantasy.

So? Well, let's rinse and repeat: The conservative establishment would like to have Johnson as Mayor. They could live with Lewis. But if their support of Johnson prevents both R's from making the run-off and gets business Democrat Brian Colon in a run-off against Dem Tim Keller, that's alright, too.

THE BOTTOM LINES

In a first draft Tuesday we blogged that an op-ed urging NMSU to keep Garrey Carruthers as its chancellor was authored by three Democratic state senators. It was written by two Democrats and one Republican.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2017