Now it's just hours. Power hangs by a thread. The stakes are as high as they get. War and peace. A moment in time that will be frozen in history. But the heck with all that for a moment and let's have some fun! It's time to send my political pros out on the limb and make them predict this most unpredictable election. Not that we are putting any pressure on them. We wouldn't dare come back here this week and point out the error of their ways. Well, of course we will. But there's always that chance that someone will get it right. Don't forget our Election Eve Special today at 5 p.m. on KANW 89.1 FM in ABQ. Right now, let's go out to the field for the final plays.

FIRST BASE

Top Dem NM Lobbyist Scott Scanland, now in the game for 25 years, says this is the toughest call of them all. But in the end its Bush who takes the prize and he won't need NM to claim it.

"Kerry is finishing better in NM than Bush. Kerry wins NM by two points with the help of the Guv. Nationally, I thought Kerry had the big Mo to carry him through but Osama is changing my mind. I will be watching Wisconsin. I think Bush wins FL & Iowa but loses Penn & Ohio. I believe it is fear vs. Bush hatred. I think it will be an early night though, if Bush wins Penn or Ohio and FL, it's over. Kerry can win Pa. and Ohio and it still won't be his unless he wins Wisconsin."

SECOND BASE

GOP Political consultant and state legislative candidate Greg Payne (his opponent is D Michael Corwin) says it's Bush in NM and in America. "I score it 296-242 in electoral votes. Bush wins NM by two points, the same in the nation. It will be the war on terror and Bush doing a better job in portraying himself as the person who will wage that war most aggressively. As for Wilson-Romero: "The turning point was the KOB-TV debate when she soundly defeated him. I score if for Heather with 54% to Richard's 46%.," declared Payne. He also threw in a bonus pick and predicted Senate Majority Leader Daschle will be defeated in South Dakota

THIRD BASE

UNM Poly Sci prof Gil St. Clair leans R, but he thinks Kerry will win New Mexico. He points out there has been a big boost in voter registrations, a third of the new registrants are 18 to 24 years old and that bodes well for Kerry here. "The deciding factor will be turnout," said St. Clair

RIGHT FIELD

Veteran politico Kurt Lohbeck practices magic on the side and it would take a magician to call this one. Let's see what he pulls out of his hat.

"I predict a very narrow Bush victory in New Mexico. Bush will win the election nationwide and garner closer to 300 electoral votes. I was going to predict that if Kerry won New Mexico by 5000 to 10,000 votes, then Romero would win the Congressional seat. But with my belief that Bush will win NM I now see Heather Wilson winning re-election."

Lohbeck's bonus prediction was a pick up of a couple of seats for the R's in the U.S. Senate--53 R's, 46 D's, one indy. (Daschle goes down).

CENTER FIELD

Former ABQ Mayor Jim Baca, one of the state's most experienced campaigners, throws in the towel on the ABQ Congress race. The lifetime Dem says Heather is going back to D.C. with a 52% to 48% win. Baca has Kerry winning NM by the biggest margin of any All-Star. He scores it 52% for Kerry, 47% for Bush and 1% for Nader. The former Land Commissioner stayed out of the national fray.

LEFT FIELD

The Green Party's Steve Cabiedes will be one of that 1% that he predicts will vote for Nader in NM. But he predicts Bush will carry the state by the slightest of margins,just one-half of one percent. Bush--49.5%, Kerry--48.5%. The political numbers cruncher also likes Bush for the whole game seeing Bush getting 284 electoral votes to Kerry's 254. He scores Florida and Ohio for Bush and says Hawaii will surprise as it goes for the GOP. Steve's bonus prediction was on turnout. He sees it hitting 70% of registered voters statewide, up from 63% in 2000. He pegs voter turnout in Bernalillo County at 72% of the registered, up from 68% four years ago.

PITCHER

Despite the passing of the decades Dem activist and pollster Harry Pavlides still has the utmost passion for the game. And on this one he breaks with the consensus view and says it goes to Kerry in NM and the nation. And talk about getting specific, take a look his predicted finish. In New Mexico, Kerry--50.71%, Bush--47.0%, Nader & others--1.71%. Harry has Kerry taking the Oval office with an electoral vote total in the 290's with a popular vote for Bush of 49%, Kerry 48% and others 1%. His bonus prediction is a heads-up."Keep your eye on the Wilson-Romero race. If we get a huge turnout spike that race could be in play," offered Pavlides.

SHORTSTOP

Political junkie and ABQ Weekly Alibi managing editor Tim McGivern gives up on Romero, but still likes Kerry.

"Kerry and Bush in New Mexico is a dead heat. Kerry should be able to pick up many of the undecided to leverage his three-point deficit in the Journal/Sanderoff poll.
The question is: How many of those undecideds stay home?

Nationally, I wouldn't be surprised if Kerry takes all of the Midwestern battleground states--Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota. Nobody has been hurt more by Bush's policies than working people in the Rust Belt. Coupled with discontent over Iraq, it could be a surprisingly easy win for Kerry, with Bush lucky to break 260 electoral
votes.

As for Romero-Wilson, Sanderoff's poll (51-43 for Wilson) should put a frown on the collective faces supporting Romero.Romero's going down, probably by 52-48, give or
take a point,"opined the busy journalist.

CLEAN-UP BATTER

All year we have gone to veteran NM R consultant Bruce Donisthorpe to bat clean-up after the NM caucuses, the primaries and the Prez debates. We asked him to pick up the big stick for us one more time and give us the final word on Campaign 04' on this most special American Election Eve.

"The NM Presidential race is too close to call. I'm guessing that Cheney's and Bush's late visits put the GOP over the top and the Republican ticket wins by 1,000 votes. If Kerry expects to win here, he's got to show up to claim his prize before the polls open. Dems are banking that Clinton takes the ticket over the top. I'm not sure that's enough because Clinton is the past and Kerry is the future and he's not here."

Nationally, Bush wins. Electoral College 279-259, taking Ohio and Florida in close cotests. This will be the closest race since 1960. Bush takes the win with a strong performance in 30 states throughout the south, southwest or Rocky Mountain states. Bush wins national popular vote by 49% to 48% for Kerry. It could be closer in the final count.

Congresswoman Wilson wins re-election with 52% of the vote. Heather has been one-step ahead of Richard every day of this campaign from fundraising, to message development, to advertising to turnout. Congressman Pearce will win with 54% of the vote. Pearce enjoyed a huge money advantage and never trailed in this race.

Bruce's bonus prediction was on the U.S. Senate which he keeps close eye on for his business clients.

"GOP retains control of the US Senate, perhaps pick up a seat or two and go from 51 to 53. The Republicans had an edge in the South where the Dems had to defend five open seats and Bush ran strong," said swami Bruce.

COACH'S CORNER

None of my All-Stars said they would take their predictions to the bank and some actually tried to wiggle out with cries of "toss-up." But eventually like true team players they all came through and I thank all of them for helping today and during the past 13 months as we have covered this campaign without a break. We are nearing the end of an exhilarating ride which has created great political memories for all of us. Long Live La Politica!

KANW-FM ELECTION EVE SPECIAL TODAY AT 5

Time to fish or cut bait. And that's just what I will ask my panel of expert insiders to do Monday at 5 p.m. on KANW 89.1 FM. Our hour long Election Eve special will feature top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland, ABQ Tribune managing editor Kate Nelson, Dem insider Terry Brunner and GOP State Senator Joe Carraro. Tune in and see if they can predict the big races right.

ELECTION NIGHT ON KANW 89.1 FM

We will start early Tuesday, Nov. 2 to bring you the important East Coast results. Top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland and other experts will join me for rapid-fire results and analysis on 89.1 FM. It's all made possible by Pfizer, Enterprise rent-a-car, Bill Campbell Realty, NM Legislative Reports and John Moore & Associates. Be sure to join us as we call all the NM races.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author