We may or not have another deadlocked Prez race in NM like 2000, but one aspect of that famous election is already repeating: bad weather. And It's hitting just where it did four years ago: SE NM. In a late night Election Eve interview, KRQE-TV meteorologist Mike Hernandez told me the brunt of the early winter storm today will be centered in Lincoln County (Ruidoso, Cloudcroft), one of the most Republican counties and right where a more severe storm dampened voter turnout in 2000. It may have cost Bush NM as the storm stayed away from the Democratic North. Gore won by just 366 votes. Hernandez says this time the Democratic North is in the clear. It will be cold there but no snow today and clearing skies.

Lincoln has only 14,000 registered voters but is 56% GOP. If weather keeps them home there, and the race is razor-tight, Mother Nature could be a deciding factor as many think she was last time. Voters in "Little Texas" as we call the SE, are a hearty bunch, but the storm will keep some voters away. Will it again be a deciding factor? We will know in a matter of hours.

EARLY VOTING UPDATE AND MY PROJECTIONS

81,785 voters cast ballots at early voting location sites in Bernalillo County. About 68,000 absentee ballots will be cast in the state's largest county. I am projecting a turnout of 256,000, or about 72% of registered voters. That's high and I expect it to help Kerry win the county by about 8,000 votes. The Senator should carry NM by a similar, if not larger margin. My final NM prediction percentage wise is Kerry--50%, Bush-48%, Others--2%. Nationally, I expect Kerry to break 300 in the Electoral College, win Florida and win the national popular vote as well. I am projecting a voter turnout statewide of about 70%, or 700,000 voters. (I am not counting 134,000 "inactive" voters on the rolls)

The early Bernalillo vote broke about 55% for the Dems. Tonight watch how ABQ Dem Congressional hopeful Romero does iin that vote. If he loses it by more than a couple of points, he will very likely lose the election to incumbent Wilson. Kerry should carry the early vote and the vote cast on Election Day. If he doesn't, game over. The absentee vote will not heavily favor the R's as it has in the past because the D's have learned how to work it.

WALL-TO-WALL E NIGHT COVERAGE ON KANW 89.1 FM

This is it. And we an hardly wait. Join me starting at 5 p.m. on 89.1 FM (heard throughout north central NM)as we track every race from Prez to judges. We do not expect the absentee votes from Bernalillo County to be in until after midnight, so this is going to be a long one. However, my experts, lobbyist Scott Scanland, D Lenton Malry, R veteran Bruce Donisthorpe, Green Steve Cabiedes and State. Rep. Rick Miera, will have results from the rest of the state that will help us help you get a a handle on the Prez battle. Also, we will have early results from selected precincts in ABQ. We will stay on the air as long as the Bernalillo County Clerk is counting votes.

WHAT A YEAR

I started this blog in October of 2003 and many dramatic events have carried us forward. Frankly, I got lucky. I never dreamt there would be so much fascinating political news. Neither did I expect all the help and guidance I have received from you, my loyal and deeply appreciated readers. Many people ask me if I make a lot of money doing this. The answer, of course, is no. Not that I haven't surprised my highest expectations. Wonderful sponsors like Enteprise-rent-a-car came aboard before we even were three months old. Many more followed and it has been deeply gratifying.

But most rewarding has been the opportunity to have such direct participation in the political give and take, make new friends, and humbly learn that I have a lot to learn. I will try to be here Wednesday, but if our radio broadcast goes into the wee morning hours, that may not be possible. Thanks to all of you for your interest, comments and your valuable time.

ELECTION NIGHT ON KANW 89.1 FM

We will start early Tuesday, Nov. 2 to bring you the important East Coast results. Top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland and other experts will join me for rapid-fire results and analysis on 89.1 FM. It's all made possible by Pfizer, Enterprise rent-a-car, Bill Campbell Realty, NM Legislative Reports and John Moore & Associates. Be sure to join us as we call all the NM races.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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