What is the key dynamic in post-election new Mexico? The new legislative leadership? Big Bill's standing? How about the price of oil? That one gets my vote as I talk with political insiders, journalists and lobbyists who still subscribe to that old adage: "Follow the money." The oldtimers among the group marvel at the near fifty bucks a barrel the black gold is fetching and they worry about a price collapse. Oil prices are notoriously volatile. Back in the 80's the price slid into the mid-teens, wreaking havoc in NM.

"Just how much money is being committed to ongoing government expenses based on all this oil money flooding in to Santa Fe? What happens if we go back to $20 a barrel?" Asks one longtime Roundhouse wall-leaner.

Good point. The state Medicaid program has been munching thru additional millions each year. But we've been able to fund it as tax collections skyrocket. What impact would a declining oil price have on the program and others? Will Big Bill and his budget minions be quizzed on that before the next spending spree starts in Santa Fe in January?

MICKEY'S RECESSION

The semi-surprise defeat of Rep. Dan Foley at the hands of Terry Marquardt for the position of State House Minority Whip has them talking about the status of the so-called Barnett wing of the GOP. You may recall that Mickey Barnett, an attorney and lobbyist, was defeated earlier this year when he sought re-election as Republican National Committeeman. That after Barnett fielded several opponents against sitting GOP legislators. Now, insiders say, Barnett's backing of Foley may have played a role in the Roswell lawmakers defeat. "Barnett has been slowly losing his sway over legislators, but still has a network of operatives at the campaign level," said one insider R. But with the departure of Minority Whip Thompson, a Barnett acolyte, and the Foley defeat, the fear factor among R lawmakers when it comes to Barnett & Co. seems to be receding into history.

CATHOLICS SWING BACK

Not surprisingly, our report (Nov. 22) on the involvement of the Catholic Church and NM Archbishop Sheehan in the Prez campaign had our mail bag bulging. We covered the critics point of view in that first report. Here's the other side of the coin from our emailers, beginning with former top NM Congressional aide Jack Daum:

"Sheehan, the Church and the biblical stance on both infanticide and homosexual marriage have all been around much longer than Silly Billy and might even survive both the blogmugging and Billy's bluster," blazed Daum.

David Balz, a thoughtful Catholic writer, had the best defense of the Church's politics:

"Catholics are free to make prudential judgments on the best means to help the poor, protect the environment, etc. They are not free to publicly oppose Church teaching on inviolate moral issues and lead others into sin, without facing public consequences. The Church and her bishops were not playing politics. They were warning Kerry, and others who look up to him, that they risked their souls by supporting abortion. That warning was long overdue and apparently clear enough that a significant number of Catholics who would normally vote for the Democrat, failed to do so this time--costing Kerry the win.

Were some Bishops out campaigning for Bush? A few, sure, but certainly a lot less than have campaigned for Democrats in the past. As citizens, the priests and bishops are free to do so. Are they not?" penned Balz.

Finally, another Catholic emailer claimed priests were not just urging a vote against Kerry in one-on-one talks but said he knew of at least two instances where they made their views know directly from the pulpit. Thanks for all the comments which are always welcome at jmonahan@ix.netcom.com

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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