One of the most contentious voter registration drives in NM history is over at 5 p.m. today and the final numbers are going to put us at over 1,030,000
registered voters in a state that falls short of the 2 million population mark. The frenzied registration efforts ended up adding a boatload of voters who identify themselves as independents, many of them coming aboard for the first time because of the Iraq war. But will the 100 thousand plus new voters over 2000 actually take the trouble to go the polls? They have not in the past. Even if they don't, veteran voters will be out in droves because of the high stakes Prez race. I think turnout will easily top 62% of the registered and will have more educated guesses as we get closer.

BILL OR BUSH?

Here's another important election number. Unemployment in the state is at 5.4%. That's way down from last August's 6.6% rate. It's an interesting situation with the Dems praising NM's Big Bill for the improvement and at the same time slamming Bush for doing a lousy job on the economy. Which is it?

HEATHER HARNESSED

Romero
Heather's feathers are sure to be ruffled by the latest ABQ Journal poll showing her in a nip and tuck battle with Dem challenger Richard Romero. Pollster Brian Sanderoff puts it at 45% for incumbent GOP Congresswoman Wilson and 44% for Romero. With the margin of error the race could be flat, but Sanderoff told me: "It has narrowed, not because of gains by Richard, but because of drops by Heather. Running a hard hitting campaign has its benefits and costs. Heather has lost a sizable portion of the liberals who supported her (from 21% to 13%)."

Heather is still way ahead with her most important voters: seniors. Undecided went up a few points as well, a natural given the unrelenting negative tone of the contest. Romero may be able to raise some money off of this one, but still must make the sale of himself before it's all over. Seniors are still with Heather, a number to watch as we go along. It has been a major reason for her past victories.

However close the race is it's apparently not close enough to draw Heather out and onto the debate stage of KOAT-TV, Channel 7. According to the Romero campaign,(Heather's camp did not comment to me) she has nixed that scheduled October 24 face-off with Romero, but will debate him on KOB-TV October 17. Trouble is, that debate is at 4 in the afternoon, hardly prime-time. Unfortunately, voters won't get to see much of these two going toe-to-toe. Instead, were stuck with a deluge of apocalyptic 30 second spots from both sides, generating a whole lot more heat than light.

LINKS AWAY

We continue to link to the NM candidate web sites. Our latest is Republican attorney Ned Fuller who is challenging incumbent State Supreme court Justice Edward Chavez. Send us your site and we will get it posted here.

Make our site, WWW.JOEMONAHAN.COM one of your favorites and e-mail a link to interested friends. Interested in advertising to NM's large political community? E-mail me from the top right of this page, or call 505-243-4059 for details.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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