The national polls are starting to fall in line with what all of us on the ground here know: New Mexico is a hotly contested state and that Hispanic's and big Bernalillo County are the prime targets.

The Zogby tracking poll now shows just a three point lead for Bush over Kerry. It's Bush 47%, Kerry 44%, other candidates 4% and undecided 5%. Most important, he shows Bush getting just 34% of the Hispanic vote, compared to 44% in the first night's track which polling junkies think was the result of a bad polling sample. Kerry is garnering about 53% support from Hispanics, a number we can safely project to grow to the low to mid 60's Election Night. That means in all probability this race is tied or Kerry is a bit ahead. Meanwhile, the Rasmussen poll conducted Tuesday with a MOE of 4.5%.shows Bush at 48%, Kerry 44%, Nader at 2%.

TROUBLE IN RIVER CITY

Zogby shows trouble for Bush in Bernalillo County where he is now almost seven points behind Kerry with high unfavorables. Still, from this corner the Bush strategy of ignoring the state's largest city late in the game and trying to pick up the win in small town NM is provocative, but now proving dangerous and looking more like a longshot. Can the President absorb a 10-15,000 Bernalillo County vote shock? Possible, not likely.

The Prez has been making a play nationally for crossover Dems, just the type of Dem in ABQ who needs to be persuaded. But time is short and the prize may be slipping away. Clinton comes to Santa Fe and ABQ over the weekend. He will work to get Greens and liberals fully on board, and then move for the final kill in ABQ. Will the roar of the big-city multitudes drown out the shouts in Bush's small town NM? Don't bet against it.

Daddy Bush is coming in today, but not to vote-rich ABQ, but instead to little Los Almos where the R's are the majority party. Granddaughters Jenna and Barbara will accompany Bush 41 and provide the eye candy.

ABORTION: MAYBE?

Abortion is the last issue a lot of candidates want to deal with and that apparently includes R Kathy Leyendecker who is challenging Dem State Rep, Al Park for his ABQ SE Heights seat. Leyendecker is getting blasted by the pro-life forces after she gave two different answers on the controversial issue to the ABQ Journal and Tribune. That has the pro-choice NM group on he warpath and dispatching an email and endorsing Al Park who they say is definitely pro-choice and has demonstrated "honesty and integrity." This one is Park's to lose.

HOOKER VS. RYAN

From poll numbers being floated, it seems the Republican John Ryan has not put away Dem John Hooker in he ABQ North Valley State Senate contest for the seat to replace Ramsay Gorham. But it also seems Hooker has not put away Ryan who has rallied support among top Republicans. He's a former executive director of the state GOP. Hooker, a former Mayor of Los Ranchos, is rallying the liberals, especially the environmentalists. He is not getting help from Big Bill, but Hooker has family resources to make up for it.

Disclaimer: polls in legislative district are notoriously volatile and have a high eror margin. This will be one of the big races to watch Tuesday night when you tun in to KANW 89.1 FM.

ELECTION NIGHT ON KANW 89.1 FM

We will start early Tuesday, Nov. 2 to bring you the important East Coast results. Top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland and other experts will join me for rapid-fire results and analysis on 89.1 FM. It's all made possible by Pfizer, Enterprise rent-a-car, Bill Campbell Realty, NM Legislative Reports and John Moore & Associates. Be sure to join us as we call all the NM races.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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