Home sweet home. New Mexico Democrats are back on the Kerry ranch and giving him a three point lead over the Prez in the latest ABQ Journal poll. The survey has it 46-43 for Kerry with 2% for Nader, 1% for Libertarian Michal Badnarik and 8% undecided. Kerry has gone from a three point deficit in the last Journal poll to today's three point lead. Veteran pollster Brian Sanderoff reports that Kerry's debate performance was the clincher. "Bush has dropped to 17% support among Democrats, compared to 24% in our last poll." Fifty-seven per cent of those surveyed say Bush beat Kerry in their first debate and that explains the move. "Bush is actually increasing his Republican support, but this debate solidified the Democrats." said Brian, while also pointing out that ABQ is coming in solidly for Kerry.

The only remaining question is will the D's stay home, or spend another night out on the town with Bush? Much will depend on news developments outside the campaign and whether Kerry makes a big mistake. From this corner, we are back where we started; Kerry is positioned to win this Democratic leaning state and its five precious electoral votes. The Bushies need to keep the heat on and hope for the fumble.

FLUFF VS. GRUFF; THE VEEP DEBATE

I rounded up my All-Star Debate Team last night for the big VP debate and their opinions covered all the bases. We go out to the field.

FIRST BASE

Top NM Lobbyist and veteran Dem Scott Scanland told me: "For the most part it was a push, but advantage Cheney. He hit a three pointer from half-court when he nailed Edards for a poor Senate voting record. But Edwards did not pout and moved on. Edwards seemed very scripted. I think this debate gave the R' a bit of a shot in the arm."

SECOND BASE

Dem Caroline Burkle, staffer with AG Madrid, a friend of Edwards', was lucky enough to attend the debate in person with her boss. No surprise, she scored it for Edwards in a late night cellphone call from what she called a "freezing Cleveland."

"I don't know how it looked on TV but to us it appeared John really got under Cheney's skin when he hit him on Iraq. He looked a bit intolerant." I asked her about the scene inside the debate hall. "It was a modified gym. It was surprising how small it was. Only 210 people were there. Caroline also did some star gazing: "Jesse Jackson, former Senator Alan Simpson and Vernon Jordan were right near us. Patricia sat behind Edwards' family in the second row," wrapped up Caroline from the cool climes of Cleveland.

THIRD BASE

Pollster Brian Sanderoff told me Cheney dominated this outing: "VP Cheney adeptly defended his positions without appearing defensive. He was strong and authoritative and exhibited a quiet confidence. The debate format played to Cheney's strength.

"Senator Edwards chose to substitute his positive, upbeat, populous style with a more hard hitting approach. He served his role as the primary cheerleader for Kerry. When Edwards landed a verbal jab, Cheney would counter punch without hesitation. He seemed a little anxious in his debating style,"
declared Brian who is also tracking the action for KOAT-TV

CATCHER

The GOP's Kurt Lohbeck called it hands down for his man. "Cheney ate his lunch. He was a plodding machine armed with facts and figures. This contrasted with Edwards' inexperience.
Edwards was not as focused as Cheney and that's why Cheney won," said the veteran player at it since the 1950's.

LEFT FIELD

Longtime NM radio talk show host and Dem Mike Santullo, in the game for 35 years, called it a draw. "Both men were skilled and well-informed, and both stayed on message. Cheney had gravitas and scored when he forced Edwards to defend his Iraq statements. Edwards scored big when he nailed Cheney on Halliburton. Cheney comes across solid. He's a skilled and worthy opponent," commented the talker and political junkie.

RIGHT FIELD

Dem activist and Pollster Harry Pavlides was a lone voice on the team calling it a win for Edwards. But he had some solid reasoning worth considering. "This thing is about the undecided voters. Edwards appealed directly to them on healthcare and taxes. Yes, Cheney did a good job, but he turned on the Republican base. Edwards' message had broader appeal and I think he picked up votes. That's why I score it for him," said Pavlides who cast his first Prez vote for George McGovern.

CENTER FIELD

Republican strategist Greg Payne gave it to Cheney saying the VP "reinforced the notion that the Bush administration is made up of some very capable professionals. He showed that they have gone through some very tumultuous times in a very steady way. The best line was when Cheney asked how you can expect Kerry and Edwards to fight a war when they folded under the pressure of Howard Dean in the primaries. But Payne agreed with Pavlides that Cheney appealed mainly to the Republican base. As for Edwards," He was smooth, very smooth like a good lawyer," opined the opinionated Payne

CLEAN UP

Green Steve Cabiedes: "It was a tie. Edwards was very well-prepared on Iraq. Cheney is much cooler and more straight forward then Bush." I asked if any votes were shaken out as a result of last night's face-off. "If you were a Republican leaning person it reinforced your viewpoint," he offered in a late night analysis as the phone lines finally started to cool off.

THANKS ALL-STARS

Thanks to My All-Star Debate Team for their insights. They are with you during this critical month of October, collectively offering experience and insight that can be gained only on the playing field and from being exposed, for better or worse, to the harsh lights of our beloved La Polticia.

Make our site, WWW.JOEMONAHAN.COM one of your favorites and e-mail a link to interested friends. Interested in advertising to NM's large political community? E-mail me from the top right of this page, or call 505-243-4059 for details.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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