New Mexico is in this one till the end. We are now just one of 11 states getting Prez advertising as the battle for the power and glory goes down to the proverbial wire. Supernova Bill Clinton is coming in to seal the deal for Kerry Halloween afternoon. Kerry is in downtown ABQ Tuesday. The Bushies field organization is scouring for every last vote and received a boost Sunday as the Prez rallied the conservative faithful in Alamogordo. Boys and girls, it's a turnout game now. You know where I stand. I would have preferred to see Bush make more of a play for the swing voters and Bernalillo County. His campaign says he's doing that with his terror message which they maintain will attract late-deciding women in NM and the nation. I like the Kerry playbook, sending the senator into Las Cruces Saturday to pump up turnout in the heavy D county, but one notorious for low voter turnout. And how can you argue with putting Bill Clinton smack in the battleground of this battleground state--Bernalillo County? Well, you can't.

Meanwhile, NM has taken on an increasingly important role for Bush with insiders at the top saying with Ohio now looking doubtful, the Prez is looking for a combo play of Wisconsin Iowa and NM to replace Ohio's possibly lost electoral votes.

MY ANALYSIS

I scored this thing last week for Kerry by about 10,000 votes. Some were surprised. But remember, with a turnout of 700,000 that is a very narrow 1.5% win for the challenger. I reserve the right to make a final prediction based on the final hours of activity, the last polls, the E day weather forecast and my turnout projection. The Zogby tracking poll, conducted by phone, not internet, reported Sunday night that Bush has opened a five point lead--49% to 44% over Kerry in NM, (MOE +-4.1%). The latest Mason-Dixon has a similar Bush lead. But Zogby has Bush polling a whopping 44% among Hispanics, but Bush only carried 30% of the Hispanics in 2000.

Bush's organization here has pulled out all the stops, but so has Big Bill and the D's. It comes down to who wants it most. Whether it's Bush or Kerry, New Mexico is a big winner. The victor will remember well our out-of-the-way Land of Enchantment, it's issues and its people. Long live the Electoral College!

WHAT IF KERRY LOSES?

Politics being what it is speculation is already underway on what happens if Kerry loses. What do the Dems do then? Not to worry. The New York Times Sunday mentioned a list of possible candidates for 08' and they included our own Big Bill. Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Howard Dean and Indiana Senator Evan Bayh were also talked up in the article which quoted major Dems as staying their bench is weak. Big Bill's deep experience in foreign policy surely would help. If Bush wins the election the victory will be owed to his emphasis on terror, a theme that could be with us for a long time to come.

And get a load of this one. If Bush does win re-election speculation from one insider web site, govexec.com, has the name of Heather Wilson popping up as a possible for Secretary of Energy. The bad news for Heather is that those jobs are often filled in a second term by losing U.S. Reps and senators. If she ever does end up at Energy, she can get some tips from Big Bill who had it under Clinton and can point out the trap doors.

FOLEY UNDER FIRE

Sure, Dan Foley will win re-election to his safe conservative State House seat down in Chaves County, but the Dems, and Big Bill in particular, are throwing back some of the firebombs that Foley has aimed at them. Foley, who aspires to House Minority Whip, has a few speeding tickets in his past and the D's are having fun with radio ads letting everyone know about it. Foley recently followed Big Bill around at various stops in a ploy that the Dems say bordered on harassment. Now it's Foley's turn to get chased around. Of course, Big Bill is no slouch in the speed department having trekked to Santa Fe at the rate of 110 MPH on occasion.

DENISE LAMB'S TAKE

Denise Lamb, tracking the action now for ten years as head of the NM Bureau of Elections, alerts us to keep an eye out Election Night on "in-lieu of" and "provisional" ballots. In-lieu-of ballots are the ones cast by voters who say they are showing up to vote because they did not get their absentee ballots in the mail, even though they requested one. Provisional voters claim to be on the voter rolls, even though they are not listed. "They will number in the thousands," Lamb told me from her war room at the Capitol.

The in lieu and provisional ballots will have to be checked closely and results won't be known until days after the voting; yet another wrinkle if we have a razor tight Prez or Congressional race. Finally, Denise says it's time NM had professional election administrators. "This is not something they teach in college, we need people on a career path. Hallelujah to that.

COUNT THOSE VOTES!

Down at ABQ's Government Center, Bernalillo County Clerk Mary Herrera, struggling with a record early and absentee vote, is now asking Lamb's boss, Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron, if she can start opening up the absentees inner envelope starting at one minute after midnight Election Day, instead of at 7 a.m. when the polls open. Mary says if she gets the OK she could get the critical absentees from the state's largest county counted by "one or two in the morning." That would be a big improvement from her earlier projection that those votes would not be counted until sometime on Wednesday.

ELECTION NIGHT ON KANW 89.1 FM

We will start early Tuesday, Nov. 2 to bring you the important East Coast results. Top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland and other experts will join me for rapid-fire results and analysis on 89.1 FM. It's all made possible by Pfizer, Enterprise rent-a-car, Bill Campbell Realty & NM Legislative Reports. Be sure to join us as we call all the NM races.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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