They did it. Both Bush and Kerry got through three major Prez debates without committing a fatal error. Last night's finale lacked the surprise of the first, where Bush almost didn't show up and the aggressiveness of the second, where the duo were in each others faces. But with E Day so close both sides decided not to swing for the fences last night. Let's go out to the field and find out how this one played with my All-Star Debate Team

FIRST BASE

"It was a toss-up, but let's take the longer view. We have had three debates. Kerry started six points back. He's now even or a bit ahead. That's because, in total, he did a better job than Bush." That from veteran NM lobbyist and Dem Scott Scanland, who added: "Kerry made no major gaffes and came across presidential." So does that mean he is going to win, Scott? "No, but it does mean we have a horse race for the rest of the campaign. I do think we will have a clear winner. I think it will break toward the end and on Election Night we will know the winner."

SECOND BASE

From Tempe, AZ, scene of the action, Big Bill called it a "narrow win" for Kerry. "The President did do well. He was strong. Kerry increased his comfort level with the American people, especially undecided voters." What about Battleground New Mexico Bill? "The race is a dead heat. Kerry scored some in New Mexico tonight by talking about increasing the minimum-wage, health care and education."

Big Bill can't say who will win nationally. He is predicting a slight win for Kerry here and he is putting pressure on himself to bring it home. "Governor's have better organizations. Now it's up to mobilizing our vote," declared the Guv, forgoing the cheerleading as he occupied the no-spin zone

THIRD BASE

"Kerry was steady and Bush improved," is how the ABQ's Weekly Alibi Editor Tim McGivern saw it from the hot corner. "For the most part it was a tie. This was Bush's best performance. Kerry missed an opportunity to hammer him on fiscal policy and the growing debt. Because the debate was mainly on the economy and healthcare, it could end up benefiting Kerry overall. I think his momentum will slowly continue. Bush did nothing to slow it down. He did do good at damage control," offered Tim who said the race remains open.

CATCHER

Political strategist and ABQ legislative candidate Greg Payne (his opponent is D Michael Corwin) called it hands down for his man. "Bush all the way. It was his best. It put the President in a very strong position for the final weeks. He looked confident and relaxed and was all over Kerry's senate record."

Payne and other conservative R's were ballistic over Kerry mentioning that VP Cheney's daughter was a lesbian when questioned on gay marriage."It was a cynical move," said the charged up R," but he refrained from making the call. "It goes to the battleground states. We are still one of them."

SHORTSTOP

Longtime Dem politico and pollster Harry Pavlides has been nailing these debates. Following each one he has predicted here continued Kerry momentum and pinpointed the demographic groups to watch. He isn't changing his tune. He is the only one of our All-Stars who is inching toward a definitive prediction.

"Kerry played to the undecided middle where the election will be decided. This was a much narrower win for him than the others. But he systematically pandered to women, seniors and young voters, groups I think will decide this thing. Bush's appeal is too far-right. I disagree with his campaign on turnout assumptions. It will not just be each candidate's base vote. There are still undecideds. Many will vote and Kerry is the one playing to them. After tonight, Kerry's momentum and numbers will slowly continue to where he wins, barring a dramatic development." declared Pavlides who so far has been in the zone on this battle.

CENTER FIELD

Our senior player, R Kurt Lohbeck, has grown increasingly conservative as the debates have played out, telling us at the start of the series that it was Bush's to lose. "Bush won the debate. For the first time, he acted like he was in charge. But there were no knockout punches so now we have a neck and neck horse race," offered Kurt who has been calling the action for 40 plus years and knows these contests can be moving targets. Also, he assures the team that his wife Barbara's ballpark cry last night of "Kerry Won!" has nothing to do with his more cautious assessment. Hey, we believe you Kurt. Really.

CLEAN-UP BATTER

We turn to GOP wartime consultant Bruce Donisthorpe to make the final swing of the bat. "It was a minor win for Kerry. He has won all of them, but that does not necessarily mean he wins the game. There are other factors voters are weighing. Bush showed enthusiasm and vigor, but Kerry, strictly as a debater, wins. But in terms of values and what people believe, I think Bush won. Joe, there are intangibles here; likability, personality, the comfort factor. They are all things that people check before they make the decision. We are now in a horse race. This is going to be a long one with a sprint at the end."

The campaign vet agreed with the Alibi's McGivern that Kerry may have had an edge because the issues were traditionally Democrat; healthcare, education etc. "Most of the undecided are Dems and independents. The issues tonight appealed to them. But, I agree with the governor that the get-out-the-vote effort may be the deciding factor by the time this thing is all over," said the Bruce as he tried hard to keep his Republican blood from boiling too much as he donned his nonpartisan hat.

FROM THE BULLPEN

What a great experience it has been blogging these debates and bringing you the voices of these knowledgeable and behind-the scenes players who are rarely quoted in the press or media, but have willingly shared their years of experience. Their insights have been candid and sometimes profound. I'm sure you join me in tipping the Blog hat their way. Don't worry, I have all of them on stand-by to help me cover the final, frenzied days of Campaign 04' right here on www.joemonahan.com and on KANW 89.1 FM Election Night.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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