Osama is here. And right on schedule. We've all been talking about it all year so it was only the way he appeared, not that he did, that constituted the proverbial "October Surprise." It's too early to calculate exactly the impact his preachy speech to Americans will have. But the first take is it certainly does not help John Kerry who represents change. The Halloween weekend appearance of Osama, fully costumed of course, is bound to frighten some timid voters more than those witches and ghosts showing up on their doorsteps Sunday night demanding candy.
In discussions with political insiders late Friday, it was the Wilson-Romero ABQ Congressional race that came up the most when discussing the Osama resurfacing. And with good reason. He has been a central figure in that nasty little drama. Dem Romero cut a spot implying Wilson, a member of the House Armed Services committee, did Osama a favor by voting against stricter cargo inspection rules. Wilson responded with a fusillade of ads and romero, according to internal party polls, started to fall.

Romero may have been rebounding from that overplaying of the Osama card, but with the hated one back in the news full force, some analysts Friday wondered if Romero has even more on the line than Kerry on this one. Will voters reconnect with Romero's Osama gaffe, or have they already moved on? And if they are impacted, how many of them?

THE LAST OF THE POLLS

The ABQ Journal/Sanderoff poll will be released Sunday morning, but it will not pick up the Osama story. The poll was just about done by the time that news hit. But it
should finally straighten out just where the Prez race stands here. My guess: Kerry is tied or with a slight lead. The Zogby tracking poll has been all over the map with internals that just don't match up with state history. I will have Sanderoff's analysis of the survey and others right here Sunday morning.

MONEY WATCH

I wrote here that Big Bill has not been laying out the money for ABQ North Valley Dem State Senate candidate John Hooker who is facing-off against R John Ryan. The liberal Hooker is not seen as a natural ally of the Guv, but the ABQ Journal's Kate Nash reports Big Bill's PAC, Moving America Forward, has given over $7,000 to Hooker in "in-kind" contribtutions. That's not cold hard cash but it needs to be noted that the Guv has covered his bets in what will be one of the most closely watched contests Tuesday night.

COURT BATTLE; A DRINKIN' THING

The battle for the open seat on the NM Court of Appeals has gone negative with R Paul Barber bringing up two drunk driving arrests incumbent Judge Michael Vigil received many years ago. Barber makes the hit on radio, but not on TV. Vigil's campaign responded with radio of its own saying Barber has been sued repeatedly for civil rights violations and has been repeatedly passed over for judicial appointments. Vigil is on TV with a positive close. Barber needs to carry heavy R Bernalillo County to make this a race. And he might do it. The last time he ran statewide he lost by less than a point.


I'M FULL-TIME THIS WEEKEND

I will stay with you thru the weekend monitoring and reporting critical last-minute events on this blog, including the Sunday ABQ Journal poll. Also join me on C-SPAN's "Washington Journal" program between 7:30 and 8 a.m. Sunday morning as I report the exciting NM Prez story to political junkies across the USA.

I will present a one hour Election Eve special Monday at 5 P.M on KANW 89.1 FM in ABQ and be back there for my 30th year of Election Night Coverage starting at 5 p.m. with the closing of the East coast polls. I will also appear on half a dozen Citadel Broadcasting stations in ABQ at various times throughout the weekend with host Art Ortega. Hope you catch one.

ELECTION NIGHT ON KANW 89.1 FM

We will start early Tuesday, Nov. 2 to bring you the important East Coast results. Top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland and other experts will join me for rapid-fire results and analysis on 89.1 FM. It's all made possible by Pfizer, Enterprise rent-a-car, Bill Campbell Realty, NM Legislative Reports and John Moore & Associates. Be sure to join us as we call all the NM races.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author