NM is turning out to be a hard sell for President Bush, and with just days to go, the political pros are starting to see a Kerry win in the wind and with it the state's five precious electoral voters. ARG surveyed from Oct. 16-18 and has Kerry at 48%, Bush at 46% and Nader at 1%. Kerry is winning the independents by six points in the survey. Combined with his Dems, that's enough to give him the win. The small undecided can also be expected to break Kerry's way.

The Zogby interactive poll again gives Kerry a huge NM lead; Kerry--54% Bush--44%. Zogby's Internet based survey has Kerry leading big in ABQ. The ABQ Journal poll at the beginning of the month had NM for Kerry by three points. Mason-Dixon updates today. Based on the polls, interviews with my experts, and traditional voting patterns I would expect Kerry to win New Mexico today by at least 10,000 votes. Of course, the election is not today and Bush continues to saturate the airwaves here. Also, E-Day weather could be a factor so stay tuned. For more of my take on the NM Prez race check out my interview with the San Diego Union-Tribune

MORE COUNTING WOES
Mary Herrera
It's more depressing than surprising. Bernalillo County appears poised for its umpteenth chaotic Election Night. First, clerk Mary Herrera said she won't be able to count all the absentee ballots until the day after the election, now she reports technical problems will also make counting the votes cast on Election Day problematic.

Instead of being able to feed the results from each precinct remotely via telephone lines, each of the 413 voting machine cartridges will have to be hand-delivered by sheriff's deputies to Government Center. Why? Because not all the cartridges are putting out the correct results. She will have to use one machine downtown to make sure all the cartridges are properly recorded. This is going to slow down the vote count considerably and is causing problems for Mary with the Secretary of State's office which is calling on her to hire more people to unseal the absentee ballots and to get the technical glitches fixed now.

The clerk also came under pressure from some Republicans Tuesday who endorsed Herrera's Green Party opponent, Steve Cabiedes. State Senators Carraro, Cravens and Adair were among them. Herrera is frequently mentioned as a possible Dem Sec. of State contender in 2004, but her hopes could be seriously impacted if ABQ has yet another fouled-up vote count. Big Bill's office says he is "reviewing' the situation in ABQ. Let's hope he acts as well.

HEATHER'S "INDEPENDENCE"

In her never-ending quest to show her "independence" hardcore R Heather Wilson has hit TV with an endorsement from GOP Arizona U.S. Senator John McCain who is perceived warmly by independent voters. But maybe not as warmly as he once was. McCain, who was pasted by Bush in the 2000 primaries, has been embracing the Prez this year. Nevertheless, Wilson is poised to win re-election with only the possiblity of a big turnout keeping her from closing the deal. If it skyrockets, Dem challenger Richard Romero might have a shot. Wilson's forces hope McCain's ad will help secure some of this year's numerous independent first-time voters.

It appears Heather will hit the $3 million mark in spending, while Richard will come close to $2 million. That would be the most she has ever spent since taking the seat in 98'. Big Bill will rally the troops for Richard at a rally at the Old Town Sheraton tonight.

RIO RANCHO ACTION

State Rep. Tom Swisstack says he is confident of victory, depsite GOP rumors that he is not working hard. "I have been door-to-door and working very hard," Swisstack retorts. Big Bill had a fundraiser for the Dem in the lean R district in Rio Rancho, NM that Tom carried by only three votes in 2000. Swisstacks R Rival, Glenn Walters retired USAF, has run a respectable effort, but former mayor Swisstack now has the incumbent label and is favored by the insiders.

PARK ANSWERS KATHY

Dem State Rep. Al Park was shut out by the ABQ Tribune when the paper endorsed his GOP opponent Kathy Leyendecker, but Park has answered with an endorsement from the ABQ Journal which backs the the attorney. "The energetic lawmaker has been the prime sponsor of 18 bills," the paper praised. Park and Leyendecker are locked in combat for his ABQ SE Heights seat which he has held since 2000.

ELECTION NIGHT ON KANW 89.1 FM

We will start early Tuesday, Nov. 2 to bring you the important East Coast results. Top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland and other experts will join me for rapid-fire results and analysis on 89.1 FM. It's all made possible by Pfizer, Enterprise rent-a-car, Bill Campbell Realty & NM Legislative Reports. Be sure to join us as we call all the NM races.