Two down and one to go. At least that's the veridict of various NM political pros when it comes to the three U.S. Congressional seats being fought over. These Alligators were quick to pounce as they declared all but dead several challengers uponscouring the ABQ Journal's recent poll.

No surprise that they unanimously predicted Rep. Tom Udall an easy victor in November over GOP challenger and San Juan County District Attorney Craig Tucker. Udall polled over 60 percent,(63% to 21%)leaving Tucker with the slim hope that he could somehow hold Tom below 60% and claim a moral victory. Still, the Republicans are grateful to have anyone running in the safe Dem district and Tucker will have some IOU's with his party for his valiant effort. But Udall will have what counts: the power.

The Gators were also donning funeral apparel for the Steve Pearce-Gary King duel down south where Dem King faces an uphill battle against freshman R Pearce. The Journal poll puts it at 51% for Pearce and 34% for the son of fabled NM Governor Bruce King. "Those numbers match-up with what Joe Skeen used to get when he held the district. Pearce is headed for a 54 to 55% win and if I am wrong you can use my name," offered up one veteran Republican. He also noted that "the King power base has never been in southern NM" and that "Gary should have been hammering Pearce all summer."

Our war-weary observer also said Pearce is demonstrating "incredible strength" with independent voters and King may be facing an "impossible task." A Dem on the inside said the race has fallen off the national radar screens and if the money is going to flow to Gary he is going to have to make a big move and soon. Don't expect Pearce to make any big moves, like agreeing to a bunch of TV debates. Not with his numbers.

TWO OUT OF THREE AIN'T BAD
Heather
So there's two out of three, but what about the big one in ABQ, where Dem Richard Romero is in a rematch against incumbent GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson? "The nightmare scenario for Richard is in those Hispanic numbers," said our R informer. "He is getting just 48% of them and that shows me there is still division the Valley over him." The division he was referring to was Richard's 2000 coup against then-Senate President pro Tem and Big D Manny Aragon as well as his effort this year to kick fellow Hispanic Eli Chavez off the Democratic primary ballot.

Our R also offered up that Heather has "worked the Valley" and is not "automatically dismissed" there. He also said Richard faces a challenge when he goes on the attack "because attacking a woman candidate requires a finesse job." Heather finessed herself into another term two years ago by walloping Romero in a ten point landslide. Both have a couple of TV ads in rotation that say nothing, but set the stage for the blood that will soon flow.

Heather has her base nailed down. She is pulling nearly 90% of the R's. Other bad news for Richard is the low undecided the race, just 8 percent, compared to mid-teen indecision in the other congressional campaigns. On that one of my Gators opined: "It means a lot of folks have made up their minds on this one and he is going to have to peel soft votes away from Wilson. It will require all-out nuclear warfare and he risks self-immolation" Self-immolation? These Gators are getting pretty uppity with the big words. But then I don't have to feed them, just listen to them.

LONG LIVE PATSY & BILL

Not all agreed with yesterday's report that Big Bill had couped arch-rival AG Patsy Madrid by keeping her off the stage at a recent Las Cruces event for her beloved VP candidate John Edwards, but I have not yet been able to nail down the reason why they believe that. Perhaps the email today will yield the answer and the other side of the latest in what is turning up to be a long-running NM political soap opera.

BE A PAID POLITICAL

You may have noticed the new ad from State Senator Phil Griego on our site. (Hey, you're supposed to!)I am accepting ads from Legislative and other political candidates for the final stretch of Campaign 04,' and my rates for Legislative contenders are a special bargain, just enough to keep me off the streets with a "Will work for Food' sign. Contact me via e mail from the link at the top of this page or call 505-243-4059 for further details on how you can reach thousands of the most likely voters in NM in the final stretch of Campaign 04'.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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