As Mr. Prez puts wheels down at ABQ International this afternoon his campaign launches a new effort to lure Hispanic Catholics his way. He's unveiled a new Spanish TV spot that touts his backing of parental notification before a teen gets an abortion and unleashed Catholic NM Senator Domenici on the campaign trail in an effort to peel off more Hispanics Dems to the GOP.

If it all sounds like a Hail Mary pass, it's because it probably is. Take a look at this take from the Gallup poll folks.

"Among Hispanic Catholic registered voters, Kerry led 58% to 36% in the June Minority Relations poll, and his lead among white Catholic registered voters in that poll was similar, at 55% to 43%. Kerry led Bush 54% to 41% among all Catholic registered voters in that poll.

The data suggest that Hispanic registered voters who attend church weekly give less support to Kerry than Hispanics who attend church on a less frequent basis. Still, it appears Kerry would maintain a lead over Bush in both groups," says the Gallup group

The above explains why Bush is making the late Catholic social issue play and also reveals why Senator Kerry decided to attend mass at NM's most prominent Hispanic Catholic church when he visited ABQ last weekend.

DEAR MR. PREZ,

The race isn't that close here. You need to sell the agenda you have pressed the last four years. If you were tied with Kerry maybe the couple of thousand Catholic votes you peel off would do the job. But with Kerry out in front by five to seven points, you are going to need more than anti-abortion Catholics to put you over the top. By the way, for every anti-abortion vote you get, you may lose a pro-choice ballot.

You might want to consider putting deeper roots down here. A two hour stop at Eclipse Aviation at the airport will give you a nice media pop, but a longer stay, like the one Kerry engineered, just might show the kind of commitment that would make us political junkies, and the voters, start talking the NM race up more.

We will talk up this race more today at 4:20 p.m on KRQE-TV with anchor Dick Knipfing. We'll have the latest on the visit and the analysis so join us then.

OGLE: HANGING TOUGH

ABQ NE Heights GOP State Rep. Rory Ogle, embroiled in a wife-beating scandal, is said to be "hanging tough" and has no immediate plans to resign, but there is one thing that could change that.

"If Rory is charged with a felony and convicted, he would be in jeopardy of losing his security clearance which he needs in his work as a contractor with Sandia labs. If he is charged with a misdemeanor he could decide to stay," said one source close to Ogle.

"Hanging tough" may be a poor choice of words to describe a lawmaker who has all but admitted he engaged in domestic violence. Who is he hanging tough against? The women of NM who are pummeled at the hands of lovers and husbands at one of the highest rates in the nation?

Bernalillo County's district attorney, Kari Brandenburg, is a woman and a Democrat, not that partisanship will play a role in her decision. Besides, she is unopposed for re-election this year. Some Bernalillo County GOP Central Committee members are hoping for a resignation in time for their meeting this weekend so they could quickly name a replacement for Ogle who has already become a target of AG Patsy Madrid and Dem congressional hopeful Richard Romero.

THE D'S ARE LURKING

Meanwhile, I checked in with a top D analyst for his take on the Ogle affair.

"We have mixed feelings on this one. Many think Ogle should resign because of the wife-beating charges, but from a political stand point, keeping him around, especially during the next legislative session, would give us some nice opportunities," mused our analyst.

If Ogle does not resign, as requested by State GOP chair Allen Weh among others, there's a chance a Republican could file as a write-in candidate to challenge the unopposed Ogle who is up for a second term.

The Ogle saga is the latest example of the "tough it out" strategy that many consultants advising politicos use these days. That may be a political strategy, but it's not a governing one. A DA decision on Ogle is expected soon, but if he does not resign by early September his name stays on the ballot. Only in New Mexico.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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